TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Prague 2: Florian Broska vs Sean Cuenin

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Sean Cueninof Florian Broska, Sean Cuenin
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$96,550
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$95,949

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,550 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe9d3…079fbacked Sean Cuenin58c17,336$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,336.0348855.9%273 W · 215 L-20.0wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-6.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Florian Broska10c8,860$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$860.464,24152.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L+65.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3663…8950backed Florian Broska25c7,400$1,868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,867.739243.4%170 W · 222 L+21.0wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+11%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe23d…3c72backed Florian Broska2c5,359$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.59517.8%4 W · 47 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Florian Broska24c5,089$1,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,230.2611,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x056c…a69abacked Florian Broska45c3,923$1,746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,746.173650%18 W · 18 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+14.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf12f…b30fbacked Florian Broska19c3,684$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70070041.1%288 W · 412 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdeaf…db60backed Florian Broska2c2,767$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick33cpaid+91.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5513…de2abacked Florian Broska2c2,100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.8778838.2%301 W · 487 L-15.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-26.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Florian Broska41c2,076$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$849.891,22753.2%653 W · 574 L-5.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked Florian Broska42c1,548$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6501,86545.6%851 W · 1,014 L+50.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed Florian Broska42c1,548$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6501,86544.7%834 W · 1,031 L+36.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2b0…e756backed Florian Broska3c1,459$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.513531.1%42 W · 93 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Florian Broska32c1,444$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.161,43524.3%348 W · 1,087 L-36.2wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Sean Cuenin67c1,084$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.774,53367.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L+306.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Florian Broska42c1,067$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.851,72948.9%845 W · 884 L+53.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Sean Cuenin74c1,011$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.548,50542.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L-166.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Florian Broska13c1,000$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.858021.9%127 W · 453 L+2.5wins0.00per pick21cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc144…c809backed Florian Broska11c937.32$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011529.6%34 W · 81 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-16%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf8c…e040backed Florian Broska7c805.99$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.2964837.5%243 W · 405 L-32.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-32.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Florian Broska43c581$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.831,65849.9%828 W · 830 L+7.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xad86…c012backed Florian Broska3c540.17$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.22742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-22.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Florian Broska43c505$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.6327744.4%123 W · 154 L-12.7wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Florian Broska43c425.87$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.291,67948.1%808 W · 871 L+36.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9b4…9fc9backed Florian Broska42c354.71$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.983737.8%14 W · 23 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbef…0c11backed Sean Cuenin57c350.88$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.8868157.6%392 W · 289 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4b6…5858backed Florian Broska10c348.97$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3523030.4%70 W · 160 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9663…5b70backed Sean Cuenin55c346.52$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.9385748.2%413 W · 444 L+33.7wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+13%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc196…2e6bbacked Sean Cuenin57c340$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.212339%48 W · 75 L-8.8wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-20.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x189d…5561backed Sean Cuenin55c266.82$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.072152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Florian Broska16c264.23$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.288,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x125a…df71backed Sean Cuenin55c257.6$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.921,02149.8%508 W · 513 L+42.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1367…9a3abacked Florian Broska7c256.89$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.173339.4%13 W · 20 L+0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid+11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39dc…fc23backed Florian Broska18c251.51$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.011,86144.4%827 W · 1,034 L-15.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c5c…91fcbacked Florian Broska42c238.45$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10044751.7%231 W · 216 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf65e…e5e6backed Florian Broska42c236.71$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006160.7%37 W · 24 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+12.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x294b…22d2backed Florian Broska43c232.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10027949.1%137 W · 142 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef1b…764fbacked Florian Broska25c227.4$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.658338.6%32 W · 51 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabb3…f5b0backed Florian Broska30c227$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.146957.6%270 W · 199 L+32.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+10.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x70fb…946bbacked Florian Broska37c226$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.626243.5%27 W · 35 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x17d9…84afbacked Sean Cuenin61c219.96$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.7830648.4%148 W · 158 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x877f…8f3bbacked Sean Cuenin57c215.79$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.154468.2%30 W · 14 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick64cpaid+23.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb9f…a6c0backed Florian Broska28c214.21$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.9815742.7%67 W · 90 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Florian Broska42c213.88$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.831,42155%782 W · 639 L+23.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Sean Cuenin56c205.52$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.383,25648.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L-53.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd056…f1bebacked Sean Cuenin55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9064350.2%323 W · 320 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4b2…1c67backed Florian Broska44c200$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8814858.8%87 W · 61 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Florian Broska34c196.84$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.585,35056.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L+228.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4061…dde5backed Florian Broska11c183.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-23.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x571f…1d37backed Florian Broska36c169.29$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.251,06554.7%583 W · 482 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3da8…be26backed Florian Broska43c168.76$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.169545.8%318 W · 377 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9941…e21ebacked Florian Broska12c165.13$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.673036.7%11 W · 19 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+23.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4eb2…1bfcbacked Sean Cuenin67c161.7$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.7928055.4%155 W · 125 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Florian Broska42c153.98$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.367,13949.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L+109.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4f…9804backed Florian Broska43c153.54$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.551,07752.4%564 W · 513 L+30.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e0e…1cebbacked Sean Cuenin67c150.3$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.320939.7%83 W · 126 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73f3…4cfdbacked Florian Broska14c145.83$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213036.7%11 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-21.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec17…0af9backed Florian Broska31c137.72$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.3312839.1%50 W · 78 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecc5…5fdebacked Florian Broska37c137.5$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.3824344%107 W · 136 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12b3…e104backed Florian Broska31c136.48$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.9111837.3%44 W · 74 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f85…f9f5backed Florian Broska34c134.32$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.2510739.3%42 W · 65 L-9.4wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-25.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7079…58e8backed Florian Broska37c129.3$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7414148.2%68 W · 73 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87f7…8f45backed Florian Broska19c128.05$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9948947.4%232 W · 257 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb720…da75backed Sean Cuenin58c126.72$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.8235164.7%227 W · 124 L+20.8wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+9.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1230…c70bbacked Sean Cuenin58c125$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.526955%148 W · 121 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3d1…de26backed Florian Broska43c116.28$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5027943.4%121 W · 158 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d01…7137backed Florian Broska44c113.64$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503855.3%21 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36cf…d3aebacked Florian Broska44c100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4444946.1%207 W · 242 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc34…0953backed Sean Cuenin60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403339.4%13 W · 20 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Sean Cuenin62c100$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381,95548%939 W · 1,016 L+16.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd649…0a15backed Sean Cuenin62c95.18$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.172100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+82.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x308c…74e8backed Florian Broska44c90.91$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408456%47 W · 37 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b18…dd26backed Florian Broska43c86.19$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.06450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22a7…ca43backed Sean Cuenin57c85.88$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.931060%6 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+32.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0536…c50bbacked Florian Broska48c82.8$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4012035.8%43 W · 77 L-9.7wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-27.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Florian Broska40c79.95$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3628933.2%96 W · 193 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b2a…0a73backed Sean Cuenin63c79.36$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.3694058.4%549 W · 391 L+21.5wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86e5…6576backed Sean Cuenin55c72.73$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.73944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ac5…f963backed Sean Cuenin55c72.73$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.7334149.9%170 W · 171 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Sean Cuenin67c65.35$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.667,81650.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L+95.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a7b…f972backed Florian Broska39c64.1$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2512742.5%54 W · 73 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ba9…2210backed Sean Cuenin57c61.4$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.41747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2892…e9d7backed Florian Broska43c59.48$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3841045.1%185 W · 225 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x301f…e84cbacked Sean Cuenin59c59.32$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.3230268.9%208 W · 94 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Sean Cuenin56c58.93$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.932,41851.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L+10.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ee3…2e6abacked Sean Cuenin57c52.63$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.6329945.8%137 W · 162 L+20.6wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+21.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Sean Cuenin66c50.3$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.11,62449.8%809 W · 815 L-9.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4285…c6b9backed Sean Cuenin63c47.95$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.957357.5%42 W · 31 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-10.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d3e…986cbacked Florian Broska43c47.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2663648%305 W · 331 L-10.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed Sean Cuenin58c45.92$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2921240.6%86 W · 126 L-6.6wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6fc…e824backed Florian Broska44c45.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203148.4%15 W · 16 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick58cpaid-19.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Sean Cuenin74c43.9$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.316,44946.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L-42.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e48…1bf2backed Sean Cuenin62c43.63$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.63250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x220e…eeb2backed Sean Cuenin56c42.86$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.86475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+41.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b23…331cbacked Sean Cuenin63c41.49$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.3534864.1%223 W · 125 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick65cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58cc…6415backed Sean Cuenin55c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1811951.3%61 W · 58 L+0.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ce2…a9d0backed Sean Cuenin55c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.92373.9%17 W · 6 L+3.7wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+32.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xb4bf…60f8backed Florian Broska42c38.52$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1869047%324 W · 366 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9eeb…a72cbacked Florian Broska32c37.09$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1221147.9%101 W · 110 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2889…edcfbacked Florian Broska42c35.71$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1514757.8%85 W · 62 L+8.9wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.