TailMyPicks

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Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Liquid vs L1ga Team (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
L1ga Teamof Team Liquid, L1ga Team
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$445,023
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$528,688

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $445,023 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 276 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5d58…9a15backed L1ga Team39c57,712$22,497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,215.514840.5%60 W · 88 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Team Liquid62c12,370$7,670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,669.6132854.9%180 W · 148 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x686f…ccb1backed Team Liquid76c11,188$8,546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,546.44520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick48cpaid-62.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9505…57acbacked L1ga Team27c11,112$3,053 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,059.51656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed Team Liquid2c10,412$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.840014.8%59 W · 341 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked Team Liquid59c9,898$5,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,840.0622954.1%124 W · 105 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2997…54f6backed Team Liquid0c9,649$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4108…9e22backed Team Liquid63c9,459$5,976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,975.513743.2%16 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Team Liquid62c6,995$4,309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,309.1379559.4%472 W · 323 L+3.7wins0.00per pick59cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4f9…f619backed Team Liquid23c5,800$1,305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,305.4714751.7%76 W · 71 L+11.1wins+0.08per pick44cpaid-1.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x57cd…a0fbbacked L1ga Team20c5,620$1,124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,495.821241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5031…1ffbbacked Team Liquid69c5,317$3,663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,662.671353.8%7 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x70c1…dba0backed Team Liquid78c4,941$3,878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,878.1122643.8%99 W · 127 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked L1ga Team27c4,626$1,249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,377.162,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05a7…42e6backed Team Liquid79c4,588$3,624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,624.4341056.8%233 W · 177 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed L1ga Team21c4,146$857 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,289.0481029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x59c8…de83backed L1ga Team77c3,895$2,985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$910.769447.9%45 W · 49 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe6ad…85f7backed Team Liquid79c3,753$2,964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,964.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7c7…620cbacked Team Liquid64c3,111$1,988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,987.658544.7%38 W · 47 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Team Liquid35c3,071$1,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,062.381,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed L1ga Team21c2,736$588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,148.2671142.6%303 W · 408 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x974f…cd80backed Team Liquid57c2,292$1,301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,300.7855147.5%262 W · 289 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb1cb…2345backed L1ga Team22c2,145$472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,672.8725935.5%92 W · 167 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-15.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed L1ga Team12c2,110$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,861.288539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f9c…101cbacked Team Liquid62c2,099$1,295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,294.748160.5%49 W · 32 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd0f5…9377backed Team Liquid4c1,968$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.032334.8%8 W · 15 L-3.4wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-42.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x490b…eec9backed L1ga Team34c1,780$606 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,174.495841.4%24 W · 34 L-0.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1b8…9d1fbacked L1ga Team21c1,700$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,338.2216725.7%43 W · 124 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-23.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x249f…fed3backed L1ga Team53c1,660$883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$777.0462650.5%316 W · 310 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a38…fee0backed L1ga Team46c1,648$766 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$881.6260349.9%301 W · 302 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked L1ga Team26c1,610$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,196.865932.2%19 W · 40 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x86e0…c394backed L1ga Team28c1,600$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,153.1380742.6%344 W · 463 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab90…a576backed Team Liquid10c1,576$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.56352.4%33 W · 30 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-15.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x52f8…ad19backed L1ga Team42c1,507$634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$872.241136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-26.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9ac…0d51backed Team Liquid67c1,483$988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$988.1812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick37cpaid-74.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2c07…5feabacked Team Liquid66c1,472$964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$964.3617954.2%97 W · 82 L-12.6wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-8.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb64f…0d2abacked L1ga Team11c1,444$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,284.893100%3 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+467.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4dde…cff5backed Team Liquid70c1,399$984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$984.0533644%148 W · 188 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8430…3961backed L1ga Team61c1,342$823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.6730356.4%171 W · 132 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xccd7…f491backed L1ga Team65c1,340$869 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.6411353.1%60 W · 53 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-12.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x86bc…efbcbacked Team Liquid17c1,339$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.1223555.7%131 W · 104 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked Team Liquid58c1,250$725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72517047.1%80 W · 90 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed L1ga Team42c1,231$523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$708.5771454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x1fcf…48e1backed Team Liquid59c1,200$708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$708425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-56.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e67…0f23backed L1ga Team77c1,157$886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.127263.9%46 W · 26 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick61cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed Team Liquid65c1,144$739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$738.661,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d1b…1262backed Team Liquid80c1,120$892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$892.48742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick58cpaid-19.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed L1ga Team40c1,059$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$634.962,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c7b…6e9dbacked L1ga Team21c1,043$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$823.8725246.8%118 W · 134 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ae3…bc70backed L1ga Team21c999.97$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$788.31250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+136.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2487…0ad0backed Team Liquid40c987.46$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.362429.2%7 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed L1ga Team32c979.56$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$665.4837632.2%121 W · 255 L-13.5wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-36.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f4b…5345backed Team Liquid65c978.99$636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$636.171258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf64f…9f48backed Team Liquid60c958$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574.82630.8%8 W · 18 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-19.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ef6…1389backed L1ga Team43c928.38$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$528.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad72…4f5ebacked L1ga Team46c872.19$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$474.236851.6%190 W · 178 L+25.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9348…8cfbbacked L1ga Team48c821.9$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.063243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd64d…bcfebacked Team Liquid60c816.48$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.891258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Team Liquid44c813.26$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.8378516.6%130 W · 655 L-135.4wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-66.7%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x26d6…56efbacked L1ga Team20c777.87$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$625.2356542.8%242 W · 323 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe74…a70ebacked Team Liquid64c750$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.2513145.8%60 W · 71 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61fa…7f62backed L1ga Team20c744.75$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$597.246451.5%239 W · 225 L-12.1wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ae1…c891backed L1ga Team34c713.81$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.3933549.9%167 W · 168 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x540d…c8f9backed L1ga Team66c695.3$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.7238855.2%214 W · 174 L+29.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2f03…77dcbacked L1ga Team36c692.19$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.1129240.4%118 W · 174 L+8.4wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Team Liquid64c690.52$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.3255751.7%288 W · 269 L+16.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3c7…bf04backed Team Liquid59c681.25$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.9415051.3%77 W · 73 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed L1ga Team11c665.93$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$592.687047.1%33 W · 37 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked Team Liquid72c641.31$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.4667043.3%290 W · 380 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f43…9319backed Team Liquid68c626.64$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd83…7d7cbacked L1ga Team46c626.61$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.2114747.6%70 W · 77 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80d3…97cabacked Team Liquid80c617.5$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e45…4b13backed Team Liquid66c594.03$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.8313975.5%105 W · 34 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick73cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x86c8…fc02backed L1ga Team35c592.89$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.7230647.4%145 W · 161 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc33d…0d40backed Team Liquid56c583.45$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.4617229.7%51 W · 121 L-17.1wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-42.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Team Liquid55c568$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.1915337.3%57 W · 96 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-33%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x22d2…82d7backed Team Liquid67c565.04$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.342817.9%5 W · 23 L-4.9wins-0.17per pick35cpaid-53.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1bac…d241backed Team Liquid66c559.69$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.179838.8%38 W · 60 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x19b6…ad8ebacked L1ga Team53c552.43$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.4432652.1%170 W · 156 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd609…4283backed L1ga Team36c538.6$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb110…21eabacked L1ga Team61c530.47$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.57550.7%38 W · 37 L-7.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-18.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x643e…679bbacked Team Liquid6c526.29$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.05250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ffb…f7f0backed L1ga Team9c512.17$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.8951550.9%262 W · 253 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f57…2282backed Team Liquid79c505.56$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.923063.3%19 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8769…04aebacked Team Liquid65c488.96$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.835345.3%24 W · 29 L-7.5wins-0.14per pick60cpaid-31.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x62d6…90dfbacked Team Liquid80c486.59$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.272360.9%14 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3804…6d61backed L1ga Team20c478.35$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.165554.5%30 W · 25 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc866…8c6dbacked Team Liquid58c476.99$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.616245.2%28 W · 34 L-5.2wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-24.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9a8e…9408backed L1ga Team11c473.3$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.2496245.5%438 W · 524 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed L1ga Team26c464.97$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.681,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0bb8…aa5fbacked Team Liquid2c461.24$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4570%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf67d…c986backed L1ga Team21c458.16$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.9439042.1%164 W · 226 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa70…5501backed L1ga Team21c450.58$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.96944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+15.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfabc…7178backed Team Liquid67c446.19$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.6510738.3%41 W · 66 L+0.2wins0.00per pick38cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a7e…b805backed L1ga Team43c445.27$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.073243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x315f…85c6backed L1ga Team19c435.64$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.8729347.4%139 W · 154 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1418…a265backed L1ga Team22c432.54$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.385541.8%23 W · 32 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7db…4fa3backed Team Liquid74c406.81$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.993151.6%16 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dd1…2812backed Team Liquid61c402.22$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.3511836.4%43 W · 75 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed Team Liquid56c400.32$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.4161548.8%300 W · 315 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.