NFL · resolved market
Spread: Vikings (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10841cbbf3fcdbd5d76fd79ec4edd0a9a6ef714efcfdbac6a66290e3f9063db2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Vikingsof Vikings, Packers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,984
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,641
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,984 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac0a…f89ebacked Packers | 44c | 5,000$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,200 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Vikings | 56c | 4,575$2,570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,005.32 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Packers | 41c | 2,000$819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$819 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x710c…892cbacked Vikings | 64c | 1,500$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Vikings | 57c | 1,489$852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.83 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Vikings | 56c | 1,100$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Packers | 36c | 551.22$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.44 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Packers | 48c | 500$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242 | 206 | 50.5%104 W · 102 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Packers | 36c | 500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 276 | 33.3%92 W · 184 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Vikings | 49c | 483.83$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.2 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Packers | 48c | 468.21$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.06 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Packers | 45c | 371.63$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.23 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Packers | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…47efbacked Vikings | 62c | 270.47$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.35 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -5.4wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -48%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Packers | 36c | 264$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.04 | 146 | 41.8%61 W · 85 L | -10.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…7d2bbacked Vikings | 58c | 206.9$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9d1…ff0cbacked Packers | 51c | 150.98$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Vikings | 60c | 101.5$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0915…d08abacked Packers | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9773…67e8backed Packers | 35c | 96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…2041backed Vikings | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 110 | 54.5%60 W · 50 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Vikings | 64c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee7e…b1e0backed Vikings | 50c | 57.21$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.61 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Packers | 39c | 53.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 209 | 44.5%93 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a05…0329backed Vikings | 49c | 40.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Packers | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 127 | 56.7%72 W · 55 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6db2…9289backed Packers | 51c | 35.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Packers | 48c | 32.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 137 | 56.2%77 W · 60 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Packers | 49c | 32.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 368 | 26.9%99 W · 269 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Packers | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 342 | 47.4%162 W · 180 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a2…12b2backed Vikings | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Packers | 40c | 27.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 163 | 49.7%81 W · 82 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd43a…f530backed Vikings | 65c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddf6…9bd5backed Vikings | 65c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Packers | 48c | 20.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 304 | 42.4%129 W · 175 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x971c…f72cbacked Packers | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc623…aebabacked Vikings | 60c | 19.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…6070backed Vikings | 65c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Vikings (-7.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Vikings (-6.5)Vikings won
- Packers vs. VikingsVikings won
- Packers vs. Vikings: 1H MoneylineVikings won
- Packers vs. Vikings: O/U 25.5Under won
- Packers vs. Vikings: O/U 35.5Under won
- Packers vs. Vikings: O/U 36.5Under won
- Packers vs. Vikings: O/U 37.5Under won
- Packers vs. Vikings: O/U 44.5Under won
- Spread: Packers (-1.5)Vikings won
- Spread: Vikings (-10.5)Vikings won
- Spread: Vikings (-11.5)Vikings won
- Spread: Vikings (-12.5)Vikings won
- Spread: Vikings (-13.5)Packers won
- Spread: Vikings (-14.5)Packers won
- Spread: Vikings (-4.5)Vikings won
- Spread: Vikings (-6.5)Vikings won
- Spread: Vikings (-8.5)Vikings won
- Spread: Vikings (-9.5)Vikings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.