NFL · resolved market
Spread: Vikings (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa35982f4035c4ea56d118716e1fdcca08d0ac0e3db03c0face8f54335e76274c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Vikingsof Vikings, Packers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,633
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,110
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,633 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb3a7…e661backed Packers | 53c | 13,175$6,983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,982.8 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Vikings | 47c | 13,174$6,192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,982.46 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x959b…ba3dbacked Vikings | 51c | 9,800$4,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,802 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4229…c07abacked Packers | 49c | 9,800$4,802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,802 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…47efbacked Packers | 45c | 5,635$2,536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,535.62 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -5.4wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -48%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x201c…58bfbacked Vikings | 55c | 5,000$2,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,250 | 74 | 64.9%48 W · 26 L | +9.8wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Packers | 44c | 4,481$1,984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,984.1 | 502 | 42.4%213 W · 289 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Vikings | 55c | 3,914$2,139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,774.56 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Vikings | 55c | 3,598$1,979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,618.97 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Vikings | 50c | 2,542$1,271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,271 | 249 | 57%142 W · 107 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9b…945abacked Vikings | 54c | 2,199$1,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,011.54 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +28%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…f94bbacked Packers | 45c | 2,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 144 | 38.9%56 W · 88 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e0…8913backed Packers | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Packers | 46c | 1,500$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x611a…e63ebacked Packers | 2c | 1,400$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed Packers | 3c | 1,000$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 54 | 9.3%5 W · 49 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Vikings | 69c | 742$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.12 | 207 | 57.5%119 W · 88 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc092…0cd9backed Packers | 49c | 678$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…26f0backed Packers | 12c | 600$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Vikings | 56c | 594.53$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.16 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcea6…67adbacked Packers | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Vikings | 50c | 486.19$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.1 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8214…ef72backed Packers | 51c | 480$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.71 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe952…bde4backed Packers | 47c | 465.04$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.47 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe02f…669fbacked Packers | 12c | 450$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ae…004ebacked Packers | 28c | 446.03$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.21 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Vikings | 56c | 267.86$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.86 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Packers | 43c | 265.99$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.38 | 266 | 49.6%132 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9201…e578backed Vikings | 70c | 226.04$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.81 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe727…5e8dbacked Packers | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd54…3ffebacked Packers | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked Packers | 20c | 200$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Vikings | 50c | 194$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.52 | 127 | 48%61 W · 66 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed Vikings | 55c | 180$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 109 | 58.7%64 W · 45 L | +9.4wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Vikings | 55c | 180$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 163 | 60.1%98 W · 65 L | +16.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff9…ce7abacked Vikings | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37a7…a42bbacked Packers | 46c | 173.91$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Packers | 47c | 158$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.74 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Packers | 14c | 143.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 245 | 47.8%117 W · 128 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Packers | 30c | 142$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 356 | 48%171 W · 185 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Packers | 46c | 125$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Packers | 45c | 125$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.25 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -11.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83c1…32f7backed Vikings | 57c | 123.16$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.16 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Packers | 37c | 120.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.13 | 294 | 39.5%116 W · 178 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Vikings | 59c | 119.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 320 | 43.8%140 W · 180 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Packers | 47c | 117$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.99 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce0e…fb2ebacked Packers | 43c | 114.3$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.15 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe06c…62aebacked Packers | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b79…3c8cbacked Packers | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0180…e452backed Packers | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Packers | 46c | 94$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.24 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x740b…1d47backed Packers | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…7975backed Packers | 46c | 76.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb78d…835dbacked Packers | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 220 | 53.2%117 W · 103 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Vikings | 56c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 148 | 44.6%66 W · 82 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf35…b327backed Packers | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Packers | 46c | 52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 163 | 49.7%81 W · 82 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4c…2f6bbacked Packers | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc4…8e6fbacked Packers | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9d…3ea9backed Packers | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 266 | 60.9%162 W · 104 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x844d…3059backed Packers | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3415…034cbacked Packers | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x022a…df5ebacked Packers | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 188 | 43.1%81 W · 107 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac7a…414fbacked Vikings | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Vikings | 73c | 37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 488 | 47.5%232 W · 256 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1d…95debacked Vikings | 56c | 35.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7814…eb75backed Vikings | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Packers | 46c | 32.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 209 | 44.5%93 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…1dccbacked Packers | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4546…c148backed Vikings | 48c | 24.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.32per pick | 50cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbca7…6e6ebacked Packers | 46c | 24.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…c7aabacked Vikings | 61c | 21.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1aa…071abacked Vikings | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf422…3b18backed Vikings | 56c | 19.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Vikings (-10.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Vikings (-6.5)Vikings won
- Packers vs. VikingsVikings won
- Packers vs. Vikings: 1H MoneylineVikings won
- Packers vs. Vikings: O/U 25.5Under won
- Packers vs. Vikings: O/U 35.5Under won
- Packers vs. Vikings: O/U 36.5Under won
- Packers vs. Vikings: O/U 37.5Under won
- Packers vs. Vikings: O/U 44.5Under won
- Spread: Packers (-1.5)Vikings won
- Spread: Vikings (-11.5)Vikings won
- Spread: Vikings (-12.5)Vikings won
- Spread: Vikings (-13.5)Packers won
- Spread: Vikings (-14.5)Packers won
- Spread: Vikings (-4.5)Vikings won
- Spread: Vikings (-6.5)Vikings won
- Spread: Vikings (-7.5)Vikings won
- Spread: Vikings (-8.5)Vikings won
- Spread: Vikings (-9.5)Vikings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.