NFL · resolved market
Spread: Vikings (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae15ab9489f7673f88a2937a9394ad9891a3266cfbbe17a3729c7e0ecbc683a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Vikingsof Vikings, Packers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,036
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,423
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,036 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x477a…583ebacked Vikings | 55c | 4,818$2,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,168.08 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Packers | 48c | 3,916$1,878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,877.79 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Packers | 49c | 3,391$1,652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,651.67 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58d7…7cf1backed Packers | 45c | 2,929$1,318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,318.09 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +48%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Packers | 24c | 2,601$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.61 | 502 | 42.4%213 W · 289 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8021…0da8backed Vikings | 53c | 2,493$1,322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,171.91 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Vikings | 53c | 2,294$1,224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,069.71 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdc…2454backed Packers | 45c | 2,222$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.7 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Vikings | 59c | 1,760$1,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721.48 | 212 | 54.2%115 W · 97 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Vikings | 51c | 1,700$867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$833 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Packers | 41c | 1,171$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.3 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Vikings | 52c | 1,112$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.96 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9e…0262backed Vikings | 55c | 809.67$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.35 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Packers | 47c | 800$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.54 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed Packers | 48c | 657$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.36 | 128 | 42.2%54 W · 74 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Packers | 42c | 476.19$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Vikings | 53c | 400$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…dca3backed Vikings | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1375…a070backed Vikings | 55c | 383.3$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.48 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf3…6077backed Packers | 46c | 300$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -6.1wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Vikings | 53c | 296.21$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.22 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bae…7e8cbacked Packers | 46c | 220$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…c24dbacked Packers | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1a…6dc0backed Vikings | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Packers | 25c | 197.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.86 | 294 | 39.5%116 W · 178 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc44…3b40backed Vikings | 53c | 183$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.01 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +5.1wins | +0.29per pick | 49cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x37a7…a42bbacked Packers | 47c | 170.21$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5912…2fe0backed Vikings | 60c | 167.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.57 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Packers | 48c | 150$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d48…b9a1backed Vikings | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbf…82abbacked Packers | 48c | 93.75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Packers | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Vikings | 53c | 74$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.78 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…5c00backed Packers | 45c | 72.13$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.46 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Packers | 42c | 72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 163 | 49.7%81 W · 82 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…8248backed Packers | 40c | 72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed Packers | 48c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…a429backed Vikings | 52c | 68.55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.91 | 274 | 54.7%150 W · 124 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6365…df4ebacked Vikings | 61c | 54.1$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d66…0e16backed Packers | 47c | 53.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6422…a346backed Vikings | 53c | 52.83$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4c…2f6bbacked Packers | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…3a8abacked Packers | 40c | 43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Vikings | 54c | 42.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1725…7405backed Vikings | 53c | 37.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…18e1backed Vikings | 53c | 33.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9331…0951backed Vikings | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6630…703cbacked Packers | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Vikings | 52c | 28.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 209 | 44.5%93 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Vikings | 58c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 148 | 44.6%66 W · 82 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e9…b625backed Vikings | 53c | 24.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.24per pick | 54cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7219…fcf7backed Vikings | 60c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.8wins | +0.38per pick | 52cpaid | +91.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf467…952abacked Packers | 48c | 22.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…c13bbacked Vikings | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8655…0853backed Vikings | 60c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeaa…80cdbacked Vikings | 60c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Vikings (-9.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Vikings (-6.5)Vikings won
- Packers vs. VikingsVikings won
- Packers vs. Vikings: 1H MoneylineVikings won
- Packers vs. Vikings: O/U 25.5Under won
- Packers vs. Vikings: O/U 35.5Under won
- Packers vs. Vikings: O/U 36.5Under won
- Packers vs. Vikings: O/U 37.5Under won
- Packers vs. Vikings: O/U 44.5Under won
- Spread: Packers (-1.5)Vikings won
- Spread: Vikings (-10.5)Vikings won
- Spread: Vikings (-11.5)Vikings won
- Spread: Vikings (-12.5)Vikings won
- Spread: Vikings (-13.5)Packers won
- Spread: Vikings (-14.5)Packers won
- Spread: Vikings (-4.5)Vikings won
- Spread: Vikings (-6.5)Vikings won
- Spread: Vikings (-7.5)Vikings won
- Spread: Vikings (-8.5)Vikings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.