Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
TCU Horned Frogs vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 138.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x111dbf305901301719b29603b5366649321b0d55817b405b53aad7778d31a826
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,919
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,919 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1fa3…ab9cbacked Over | 55c | 4,875$2,682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,192.79 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.3wins | -0.30per pick | 48cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4b…556bbacked Under | 3c | 4,694$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.94 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 48c | 3,937$1,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,879.69 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 52c | 2,345$1,216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,129.01 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 49c | 2,083$1,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,015.13 | 251 | 45.8%115 W · 136 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 45c | 1,523$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.13 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Under | 10c | 832.04$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.9 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1071…e39ebacked Under | 10c | 800$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 51c | 366.76$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.24 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Under | 47c | 290.1$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.3 | 528 | 43.6%230 W · 298 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 47c | 283.02$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.02 | 1,152 | 48.9%563 W · 589 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7096…7f78backed Over | 53c | 280.55$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.86 | 222 | 50%111 W · 111 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 44c | 210.39$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.57 | 918 | 48.9%449 W · 469 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4614…9cd6backed Over | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 45c | 198.27$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.22 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa1…e6fdbacked Over | 57c | 170.19$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.18 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e05…1b97backed Under | 49c | 157.79$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.32 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Over | 54c | 138.04$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.5 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -6.3wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0102…e4d2backed Over | 56c | 132.77$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Under | 48c | 104.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb5…6be6backed Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 145 | 46.9%68 W · 77 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff5…f136backed Over | 56c | 88.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.95 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb351…5f41backed Over | 57c | 83.21$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.78 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.5wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 46c | 79.3$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 133 | 56.4%75 W · 58 L | +10.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a2…3c41backed Over | 57c | 70.01$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x03eb…47b0backed Over | 54c | 69.69$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.06 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +8.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x50e0…776ebacked Under | 45c | 66.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under | 27c | 58.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 576 | 55%317 W · 259 L | +17.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 46c | 54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 485 | 51.1%248 W · 237 L | +15.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4855…6a41backed Over | 56c | 52.22$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 326 | 52.8%172 W · 154 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e6…7cefbacked Over | 56c | 44.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 45c | 44.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 223 | 49.3%110 W · 113 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf02…3a63backed Under | 46c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 328 | 50%164 W · 164 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1121…6604backed Under | 46c | 42.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 300 | 50.7%152 W · 148 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Over | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 627 | 53%332 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7307…b257backed Over | 56c | 35.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb7…d529backed Over | 55c | 32.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 211 | 52.1%110 W · 101 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Over | 55c | 32.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4c13backed Under | 47c | 31.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 52c | 29.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 322 | 46.6%150 W · 172 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Under | 48c | 28.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 296 | 50.7%150 W · 146 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Over | 55c | 25.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 134 | 57.5%77 W · 57 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Under | 45c | 24.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 624 | 51.1%319 W · 305 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d02…46e2backed Under | 47c | 21.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- TCU Horned Frogs vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 138.5this page
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-10.5)Duke Blue Devils won
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-11.5)Duke Blue Devils won
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-12.5)Duke Blue Devils won
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-13.5)Duke Blue Devils won
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-8.5)Duke Blue Devils won
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-9.5)Duke Blue Devils won
- TCU Horned Frogs vs. Duke Blue DevilsDuke Blue Devils won
- TCU Horned Frogs vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 139.5Under won
- TCU Horned Frogs vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 140.5Under won
- TCU Horned Frogs vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 147.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.