TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
GenOneof KOLESIE, GenOne
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$332,003
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$338,421

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $332,003 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 400 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x29b5…cc6cbacked GenOne46c31,428$14,553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,874.745,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa335…5759backed KOLESIE0c26,910$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed GenOne46c17,969$8,183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,786.532,62451.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked GenOne47c14,370$6,821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,548.8176058%441 W · 319 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9770…0ff5backed GenOne50c12,574$6,274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,300.548043.8%35 W · 45 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xac75…1319backed KOLESIE50c10,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00016449.4%81 W · 83 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1136…0c2ebacked KOLESIE53c10,000$5,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,299.9914050.7%71 W · 69 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe40e…9770backed KOLESIE53c10,000$5,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,299.7917951.4%92 W · 87 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6310…c0b1backed KOLESIE54c9,514$5,173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,172.62633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-48.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed KOLESIE35c6,562$2,312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,311.941,57929.7%469 W · 1,110 L-86.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-39.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x13b8…d1afbacked KOLESIE53c6,000$3,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,179.962030%6 W · 14 L-2.9wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-32.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa927…8d9fbacked KOLESIE55c4,987$2,733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,733.3434559.1%204 W · 141 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed KOLESIE10c4,852$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.572,32645.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed KOLESIE53c4,371$2,309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,309.2628455.6%158 W · 126 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked GenOne57c4,166$2,371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,795.171,04044%458 W · 582 L-22.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4cfd…5c91backed GenOne42c4,138$1,757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,381.2912627%34 W · 92 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick23cpaid-16.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa5d6…c4adbacked KOLESIE54c3,480$1,879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,879.182638.5%10 W · 16 L-4.2wins-0.16per pick54cpaid-33.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x787f…d40cbacked KOLESIE54c3,457$1,867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,866.8927940.5%113 W · 166 L-16.0wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-14.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x01a4…076ebacked KOLESIE3c3,141$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.611668.8%11 W · 5 L+3.5wins+0.22per pick47cpaid+16.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked KOLESIE54c3,106$1,676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,676.322,13642.9%916 W · 1,220 L-68.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa2b0…40b0backed GenOne49c2,965$1,466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,498.982100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+120.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed GenOne50c2,958$1,479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,479.1717249.4%85 W · 87 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36f9…4df8backed KOLESIE53c2,853$1,512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,511.8418356.3%103 W · 80 L+6.8wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked KOLESIE62c2,786$1,714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,714.422,32851.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L+92.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked GenOne56c2,723$1,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,202.115,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79bd…5c31backed KOLESIE55c2,712$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5001952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed GenOne56c2,683$1,514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,169.5466851.8%346 W · 322 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x815f…1eefbacked KOLESIE55c2,679$1,484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,484.1319351.3%99 W · 94 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed GenOne47c2,254$1,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,199.950051.4%257 W · 243 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73bc…46cebacked KOLESIE54c2,225$1,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,201.57250%36 W · 36 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked GenOne44c2,026$887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,138.93,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed KOLESIE50c2,003$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001,16354.3%631 W · 532 L-38.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0d0…a970backed KOLESIE56c1,941$1,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,082.174656.5%26 W · 20 L+5.7wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+35.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xca78…b3a8backed KOLESIE42c1,809$768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$768.353455.9%19 W · 15 L+4.3wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+35.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked GenOne48c1,767$851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$915.631,62344.9%728 W · 895 L+4.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed KOLESIE47c1,730$806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$806.115,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfcef…fd7fbacked KOLESIE55c1,637$898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$897.5712846.1%59 W · 69 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked GenOne46c1,630$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$880.2918550.8%94 W · 91 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed KOLESIE53c1,601$846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$846.1457641.5%239 W · 337 L-8.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked GenOne61c1,600$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$620.151,30241.2%536 W · 766 L-50.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-24.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc98f…a13fbacked KOLESIE4c1,595$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.816311.7%19 W · 144 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-34.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0bf0…72cebacked KOLESIE37c1,564$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$577.546647%31 W · 35 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3b5…941abacked GenOne47c1,553$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$822.9310454.8%57 W · 47 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd66…664fbacked KOLESIE55c1,534$842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$841.8138358.7%225 W · 158 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed GenOne40c1,475$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8851,41133.7%475 W · 936 L+42.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked KOLESIE54c1,421$761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$761.1148948.9%239 W · 250 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ea7…7fc0backed GenOne45c1,400$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7701546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc405…4affbacked GenOne57c1,400$798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601.9916355.8%91 W · 72 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6853…f2b8backed KOLESIE55c1,392$765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$765.39425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-56.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x969f…cbdcbacked KOLESIE35c1,296$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.0662738.8%243 W · 384 L-31.2wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-30%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6185…2965backed KOLESIE47c1,292$603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602.7814051.4%72 W · 68 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5672…7312backed GenOne55c1,273$703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$569.3662248.2%300 W · 322 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked KOLESIE53c1,248$664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$663.9466446.4%308 W · 356 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa09…b681backed KOLESIE50c1,224$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6121747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ff4…d731backed KOLESIE55c1,140$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.5119840.9%81 W · 117 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1b8…9d1fbacked GenOne63c1,121$707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.1132832.3%106 W · 222 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+15.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed KOLESIE57c1,120$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634.332,50841%1,029 W · 1,479 L-115.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2c5b…b82bbacked KOLESIE60c1,109$663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662.793658.3%21 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde25…c0a5backed GenOne47c1,101$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$585.6522049.1%108 W · 112 L-8.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-4.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb693…cfc9backed KOLESIE69c1,080$749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$748.8412154.5%66 W · 55 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63a7…3bb2backed KOLESIE50c1,040$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30c7…ac3bbacked GenOne45c1,007$453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554.1175652.6%398 W · 358 L+27.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x18f3…0c20backed GenOne47c1,000$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53026155.2%144 W · 117 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87fe…3cbebacked GenOne46c1,000$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5403256.3%18 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb01…7dfbbacked KOLESIE5c1,000$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.76539.4%5 W · 48 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-31.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb600…4440backed GenOne46c1,000$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540.2516546.1%76 W · 89 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x024c…5fa1backed KOLESIE51c999.99$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.9937145.6%169 W · 202 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed GenOne47c998.13$473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.582,00953.9%1,082 W · 927 L+7.6wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda54…b8a1backed KOLESIE61c984.45$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6003043.3%13 W · 17 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-22.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc5ac…2a18backed KOLESIE50c917.08$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.425147.8%120 W · 131 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x186a…559dbacked KOLESIE55c901.46$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5008960.7%54 W · 35 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x39f8…9442backed KOLESIE54c890.65$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.74425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-65.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1032…4243backed KOLESIE54c890.61$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.932231.8%7 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-29.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb31b…d703backed KOLESIE40c878.34$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35038552.7%203 W · 182 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8adc…bafcbacked KOLESIE55c872.73$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4806243.5%27 W · 35 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3881…804ebacked KOLESIE55c858.07$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.521,49651.5%771 W · 725 L-7.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1c98…186dbacked KOLESIE54c857.32$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.1835947.9%172 W · 187 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked KOLESIE43c840.1$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.072,77637.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L-140.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked KOLESIE1c799.52$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.81102.7%3 W · 107 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-70%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8475…39a0backed GenOne44c768.35$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.351241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1522…70febacked KOLESIE12c765$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.236645.6%167 W · 199 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda20…cb8dbacked GenOne45c750$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.52962.1%18 W · 11 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+22.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8884…3457backed KOLESIE51c726.11$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.3218261.5%112 W · 70 L+8.3wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1991…348ebacked GenOne51c723.04$366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.1419150.3%96 W · 95 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd385…34fbbacked KOLESIE54c722.67$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.2413852.9%73 W · 65 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7069…325bbacked KOLESIE51c700$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35794645.8%433 W · 513 L+18.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked GenOne44c695.73$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.932,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedcc…41a1backed KOLESIE51c681.63$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.6321953.4%117 W · 102 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked KOLESIE41c681.26$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.261,59146.6%741 W · 850 L+30.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x961a…aa6abacked GenOne47c651.89$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.9327548%132 W · 143 L-0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6536…6ed1backed KOLESIE54c639.94$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.571464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick63cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe53…2dbabacked KOLESIE55c636.27$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.741,27471.5%911 W · 363 L+3.3wins0.00per pick71cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x597d…b97dbacked KOLESIE4c634.82$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278239%32 W · 50 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebf5…b1d0backed GenOne64c628$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.5149850.2%250 W · 248 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c2b…825ebacked KOLESIE51c605.56$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.6413351.1%68 W · 65 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa07c…edc7backed KOLESIE49c604.65$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.9130%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x568d…87d0backed KOLESIE50c600$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30028943.6%126 W · 163 L+8.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda6f…2874backed GenOne50c600$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3004843.8%21 W · 27 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed GenOne52c599.99$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.9160848%292 W · 316 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1025…7e11backed GenOne46c599.99$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.9955941%229 W · 330 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.