TailMyPicks

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UFC · resolved market

UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Prelims)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Luana Santosof Karol Rosa, Luana Santos
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$509,196
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$519,526

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $509,196 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 294 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4bff…fc26backed Karol Rosa49c289,583$143,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143,009.47454.1%40 W · 34 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+17.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e77…8c33backed Luana Santos51c156,000$79,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76,440933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-37.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Luana Santos55c88,421$48,411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,010.847853.8%42 W · 36 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Karol Rosa51c79,573$40,262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,262.1120348.3%98 W · 105 L+0.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Luana Santos49c66,827$32,969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,858.2735253.1%187 W · 165 L+27.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+14.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Luana Santos50c24,563$12,281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,281.381546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe524…d34fbacked Luana Santos51c20,000$10,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,80011554.8%63 W · 52 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Karol Rosa50c19,361$9,681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,680.58651.2%44 W · 42 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Luana Santos51c18,140$9,194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,946.3615444.2%68 W · 86 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b15…9b08backed Karol Rosa46c15,000$6,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,949.9929151.9%151 W · 140 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f8c…e275backed Luana Santos47c14,785$6,949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,835.987247.2%34 W · 38 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1918…20d1backed Karol Rosa53c9,430$4,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,997.92650%13 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Luana Santos50c9,000$4,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,50037152.8%196 W · 175 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4db0…d3eabacked Luana Santos49c6,120$2,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,121.092035%7 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc092…0cd9backed Karol Rosa53c5,278$2,798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,797.5612235.2%43 W · 79 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Luana Santos67c4,973$3,311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,662.514040%16 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-19.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Luana Santos50c4,116$2,058 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,058.0714551%74 W · 71 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a1c…9867backed Luana Santos50c4,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0002152.4%11 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Karol Rosa51c3,812$1,941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,941.2654056.7%306 W · 234 L-1.7wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Karol Rosa50c3,474$1,737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,737.1213836.2%50 W · 88 L-7.8wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-23.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Luana Santos54c3,241$1,752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,488.815939.6%63 W · 96 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Luana Santos64c3,103$1,971 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,132.4710546.7%49 W · 56 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed10…d2e5backed Luana Santos49c3,000$1,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,53022661.9%140 W · 86 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Luana Santos50c3,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,50028849.7%143 W · 145 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked Luana Santos49c2,640$1,294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,346.43551.4%18 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ceb…b821backed Luana Santos50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0003345.5%15 W · 18 L-3.5wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-30.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Luana Santos50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,00015552.3%81 W · 74 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x441d…544dbacked Karol Rosa50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0009247.8%44 W · 48 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26cf…c612backed Karol Rosa49c1,911$945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945.2690553.6%485 W · 420 L+46.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+8.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1670…b287backed Luana Santos51c1,811$923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$887.2250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1025…7e11backed Karol Rosa52c1,800$928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$927.9913244.7%59 W · 73 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+13.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43e0…8618backed Karol Rosa29c1,624$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4708434.5%29 W · 55 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c15…9a45backed Luana Santos50c1,586$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$786.35875%6 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+30.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Luana Santos50c1,283$642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$641.737159.2%42 W · 29 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Karol Rosa50c1,233$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$616.2630039.3%118 W · 182 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2ef…f31ebacked Luana Santos54c1,223$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563.73922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.24per pick46cpaid-63.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1c0c…7c83backed Luana Santos51c1,200$612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5887949.4%39 W · 40 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-14%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc4f…4652backed Luana Santos50c1,200$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6006354%34 W · 29 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Karol Rosa50c1,153$577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$576.5222847.8%109 W · 119 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1d9…5333backed Karol Rosa53c1,132$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6005863.8%37 W · 21 L+9.7wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+43.2%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Karol Rosa6c1,099$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.9433132%106 W · 225 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-14.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed Karol Rosa2c1,076$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x85ee…f4dfbacked Luana Santos48c1,045$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.361338.5%5 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid+19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c8e…a316backed Karol Rosa41c1,000$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Luana Santos51c1,000$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4904153.7%22 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd353…f6acbacked Luana Santos50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50025251.2%129 W · 123 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3d2…fe85backed Karol Rosa40c1,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-11.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x879b…9cb2backed Luana Santos50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2849…3d49backed Luana Santos61c1,000$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3909949.5%49 W · 50 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e9a…a9a8backed Karol Rosa50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5008461.9%52 W · 32 L+9.2wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+28.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Luana Santos48c977.65$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508.3619154.5%104 W · 87 L+14.9wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Luana Santos59c912$542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.4212451.6%64 W · 60 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce00…7d1dbacked Karol Rosa25c909.36$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2255747.4%27 W · 30 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa24…a75cbacked Karol Rosa50c895.9$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.9510651.9%55 W · 51 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeaf8…9f45backed Karol Rosa10c895$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.994748.9%23 W · 24 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick42cpaid-17.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Luana Santos61c800$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31215933.3%53 W · 106 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-44.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Karol Rosa46c753.64$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.6842254.3%229 W · 193 L+14.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Luana Santos60c687.91$411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.5822438.4%86 W · 138 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4193…4853backed Karol Rosa50c650$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3253154.8%17 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-12.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd04…a64abacked Luana Santos49c612.24$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.242850%14 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb71e…641abacked Luana Santos55c602.19$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.631060%6 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+0.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa44a…88ecbacked Karol Rosa51c588.65$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.211850%9 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f1a…bc89backed Karol Rosa52c588$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.76955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Luana Santos60c534$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.9836048.3%174 W · 186 L+16.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-0.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xadfa…36f4backed Karol Rosa51c501.96$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2564057.5%23 W · 17 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+12.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x53ad…5bd4backed Karol Rosa41c500$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.5720837%77 W · 131 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…5998backed Karol Rosa6c493.59$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.62616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-72.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9767…1a16backed Luana Santos51c454.77$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.77875%6 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.34per pick41cpaid+107.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xaf46…d123backed Karol Rosa50c453$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.55942.4%25 W · 34 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Karol Rosa48c449.33$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.7229133.7%98 W · 193 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed Karol Rosa50c445.85$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.937150.7%36 W · 35 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c70…b25ebacked Luana Santos74c435.1$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.111364.6%73 W · 40 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick63cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd469…295abacked Karol Rosa51c423.82$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21520%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0972…9d1ebacked Luana Santos50c414$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2073450%17 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a49…651abacked Karol Rosa52c401$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.525950.8%30 W · 29 L-0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93a8…4287backed Karol Rosa50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+19.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf26e…5067backed Karol Rosa49c399.85$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.938261%50 W · 32 L+8.5wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+25.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Luana Santos71c396.9$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.875330.2%16 W · 37 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-35.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2edd…e968backed Karol Rosa54c385.39$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2103666.7%24 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed Luana Santos58c384.72$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.36450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-17.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7e8…7953backed Luana Santos52c384.62$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.6218647.3%88 W · 98 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc397…bb3bbacked Karol Rosa53c380.38$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20012557.6%72 W · 53 L+11.9wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+27.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Karol Rosa51c374.79$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.1533948.1%163 W · 176 L-16.2wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ec5…fd53backed Luana Santos54c351.63$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.753141.9%13 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x767a…8ac5backed Luana Santos57c350.88$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.8815549%76 W · 79 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e78…067ebacked Karol Rosa61c348.47$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.943839.5%15 W · 23 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa851…4dedbacked Luana Santos50c340$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f86…4fa9backed Luana Santos59c336.44$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.4414560%87 W · 58 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Luana Santos49c312.79$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.493636.1%13 W · 23 L-0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7486…4247backed Karol Rosa51c312.75$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x63a7…3bb2backed Karol Rosa49c312.24$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1531471.4%10 W · 4 L+3.1wins+0.22per pick50cpaid+46.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0317…b769backed Karol Rosa51c311.76$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x680f…207fbacked Luana Santos50c310.88$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ef2…45bbbacked Luana Santos50c310.88$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f16…553dbacked Luana Santos50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1501844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-22.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf263…e9c1backed Luana Santos50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1506159%36 W · 25 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18c6…a4dbbacked Luana Santos50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.22per pick59cpaid-33.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x300b…f636backed Karol Rosa51c300$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1536056.7%34 W · 26 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2afc…23c9backed Karol Rosa52c300$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1561353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07ea…aab9backed Luana Santos50c297.28$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.641384.6%11 W · 2 L+2.6wins+0.20per pick64cpaid+31.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

  • UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Prelims)this page
  • O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.