NBA · resolved market
Spread: Warriors (-12.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14cf1808d797d7107ffd41f876c9498a53daadd52347b9a623e30001ec8f674f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Netsof Warriors, Nets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,957
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,957 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x08c5…43edbacked Nets | 49c | 21,676$10,621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,055.01 | 443 | 52.4%232 W · 211 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacae…6798backed Warriors | 51c | 16,000$8,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,160 | 112 | 41.1%46 W · 66 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84db…aeebbacked Warriors | 49c | 14,928$7,384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,384.07 | 1,374 | 50.1%689 W · 685 L | +34.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Nets | 51c | 12,000$6,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,880 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed Nets | 50c | 8,000$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,000.35 | 375 | 57.6%216 W · 159 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Nets | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 877 | 50.2%440 W · 437 L | -19.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Warriors | 50c | 3,500$1,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,750 | 359 | 42.1%151 W · 208 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Warriors | 49c | 2,745$1,345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,345.18 | 691 | 49.1%339 W · 352 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397d…681abacked Nets | 51c | 2,735$1,395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,340.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 48cpaid | +111.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Warriors | 49c | 2,627$1,287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,286.74 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Warriors | 24c | 2,484$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.66 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Nets | 69c | 1,673$1,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.84 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Warriors | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 461 | 45.6%210 W · 251 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Warriors | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 157 | 53.5%84 W · 73 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Warriors | 38c | 908.75$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.18 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fea…78b1backed Warriors | 8c | 734.31$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.73 | 263 | 37.3%98 W · 165 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Nets | 51c | 685.22$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.22 | 653 | 39.5%258 W · 395 L | -24.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Warriors | 49c | 676.32$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.53 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Nets | 61c | 518.26$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.39 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a5…c602backed Nets | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 236 | 30.1%71 W · 165 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0556…132abacked Nets | 51c | 400$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Warriors | 29c | 364.18$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.63 | 207 | 41.1%85 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb007…21f2backed Nets | 48c | 333.33$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.33 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Warriors | 15c | 308.36$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.66 | 655 | 42.9%281 W · 374 L | +17.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Warriors | 47c | 300.08$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.76 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Warriors | 31c | 277.88$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 414 | 49.3%204 W · 210 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Nets | 50c | 252.42$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.33 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Warriors | 25c | 221.59$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.83 | 445 | 51.2%228 W · 217 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7096…7f78backed Warriors | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 653 | 49.9%326 W · 327 L | +20.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…7f3bbacked Warriors | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Warriors | 48c | 199.89$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.06 | 421 | 53%223 W · 198 L | +23.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea3…a8aebacked Warriors | 50c | 192$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe44c…f15cbacked Warriors | 42c | 161.85$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.44 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Warriors | 34c | 139.32$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.95 | 1,286 | 50.8%653 W · 633 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Warriors | 51c | 137$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.87 | 775 | 49.2%381 W · 394 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Nets | 48c | 134.67$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.03 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Nets | 64c | 133.12$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.24 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Nets | 50c | 126.36$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.2 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Warriors | 30c | 123.29$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Nets | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 656 | 49.2%323 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Nets | 51c | 110.3$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Nets | 51c | 103.95$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.02 | 890 | 48.8%434 W · 456 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc480…ae0ebacked Nets | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Warriors | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbd…b8d3backed Nets | 51c | 93.8$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.96 | 672 | 48.8%328 W · 344 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Warriors | 52c | 89.12$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.53 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd697…661dbacked Nets | 50c | 82.12$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.06 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Warriors | 38c | 70.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 564 | 47.9%270 W · 294 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ff…78aebacked Warriors | 22c | 67.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Nets | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Warriors | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 519 | 46.8%243 W · 276 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Nets | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 372 | 53.5%199 W · 173 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35b2…f329backed Warriors | 50c | 39.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84a9…dbc4backed Warriors | 51c | 39.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d9…5955backed Warriors | 51c | 36.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Warriors | 50c | 35.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c3…a6e8backed Warriors | 51c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Nets | 50c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 388 | 53.4%207 W · 181 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Nets | 50c | 33.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.84 | 917 | 46.9%430 W · 487 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbdd…9ba3backed Warriors | 52c | 30.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…a58dbacked Warriors | 52c | 30.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Nets | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 332 | 51.2%170 W · 162 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…8a71backed Warriors | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 178 | 48.3%86 W · 92 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x810d…6080backed Warriors | 54c | 25.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa1…bd9bbacked Warriors | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Warriors | 54c | 24.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Nets | 56c | 22.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Warriors | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 879 | 50.6%445 W · 434 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Nets | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc44f…af90backed Nets | 51c | 19.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…8a76backed Nets | 51c | 19.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fc…7cc1backed Nets | 62c | 19.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 144 | 71.5%103 W · 41 L | +22.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +25%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Nets | 62c | 16.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 572 | 50%286 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Warriors (-12.5)this page
- Ben Saraf: Points O/U 9.5Yes won
- Brandin Podziemski: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Nets vs. WarriorsWarriors won
- Nets vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylineNets won
- Nets vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Nets vs. Warriors: O/U 214.5Over won
- Nets vs. Warriors: O/U 215.5Under won
- Nets vs. Warriors: O/U 216.5Under won
- Nets vs. Warriors: O/U 217.5Under won
- Nets vs. Warriors: O/U 218.5Under won
- Nets vs. Warriors: O/U 219.5Under won
- Spread: Warriors (-10.5)Nets won
- Spread: Warriors (-11.5)Nets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.