NBA · resolved market
Spread: Warriors (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f8c9fc4a5b748825653c9a95fbce4ffd26a73627ed07da7e64e2086cbb05771
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Netsof Warriors, Nets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,022
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,022 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Warriors | 31c | 1,883$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.91 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Warriors | 57c | 1,657$937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$937.17 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff4…b609backed Warriors | 61c | 1,587$973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$973.49 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Nets | 42c | 1,311$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760.63 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Nets | 44c | 839.99$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.39 | 715 | 47.7%341 W · 374 L | -26.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Nets | 43c | 828.4$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.19 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Nets | 69c | 815.63$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.6 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Nets | 42c | 786.96$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.52 | 207 | 41.1%85 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480e…90c7backed Warriors | 58c | 751.71$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.99 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x05c4…a4f2backed Warriors | 54c | 642.57$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.99 | 120 | 45%54 W · 66 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Nets | 46c | 530.68$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.01 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Nets | 63c | 515.8$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.71 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…dbc6backed Warriors | 58c | 458.62$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266 | 476 | 51.7%246 W · 230 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Nets | 49c | 408.09$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.09 | 403 | 44.4%179 W · 224 L | -23.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Warriors | 55c | 267.04$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.87 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Nets | 42c | 263.62$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.91 | 1,190 | 32%381 W · 809 L | -58.1wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Nets | 42c | 234.4$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.31 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa900…5acebacked Nets | 24c | 200$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 115 | 38.3%44 W · 71 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Warriors | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 619 | 57.5%356 W · 263 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9385…2484backed Nets | 45c | 194.73$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.1 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Nets | 23c | 182$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.88 | 804 | 40.3%324 W · 480 L | +27.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Nets | 52c | 176.48$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.46 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x451f…7301backed Warriors | 55c | 170$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.2 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Nets | 43c | 165$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.05 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Nets | 43c | 165$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.05 | 456 | 46.7%213 W · 243 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1629…8510backed Nets | 45c | 133.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.33 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Warriors | 38c | 132.79$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.09 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed Nets | 36c | 131$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.88 | 404 | 40.1%162 W · 242 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Nets | 48c | 130.22$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.59 | 421 | 53%223 W · 198 L | +23.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Nets | 44c | 130$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.8 | 224 | 53.1%119 W · 105 L | +29.4wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c8…e340backed Nets | 38c | 128$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.22 | 330 | 30.9%102 W · 228 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Warriors | 61c | 115.57$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Warriors | 58c | 113.07$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.53 | 319 | 47.6%152 W · 167 L | -18.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Nets | 43c | 105.6$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.19 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7793…33a6backed Nets | 42c | 105.37$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 293 | 44.4%130 W · 163 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x692e…ee58backed Warriors | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 174 | 28.2%49 W · 125 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…da9ebacked Nets | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 358 | 49.7%178 W · 180 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f79…f7f7backed Nets | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae6f…6c9bbacked Warriors | 49c | 95.61$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.85 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Warriors | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Warriors | 52c | 84.56$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.31 | 414 | 49.3%204 W · 210 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Nets | 43c | 83.89$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.82 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Warriors | 51c | 78.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 564 | 47.9%270 W · 294 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a5…c602backed Warriors | 44c | 69.64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.64 | 236 | 30.1%71 W · 165 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x819d…8d4cbacked Nets | 51c | 63.06$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.06 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed Nets | 44c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.4 | 455 | 44.8%204 W · 251 L | +21.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Warriors | 50c | 56.73$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 1,286 | 50.8%653 W · 633 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c06…bbeebacked Nets | 42c | 55.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.99 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Nets | 40c | 55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.18 | 786 | 39.2%308 W · 478 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Nets | 41c | 51.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.64 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Warriors | 50c | 50.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff7f…bb30backed Nets | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -6.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Warriors | 56c | 46.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefcb…f64abacked Nets | 46c | 43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -7.2wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d9…5955backed Warriors | 56c | 36.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x364b…f9bebacked Warriors | 54c | 33.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Nets | 41c | 30.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8585…eef1backed Nets | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Nets | 43c | 27.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 877 | 50.2%440 W · 437 L | -19.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Warriors | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 405 | 48.6%197 W · 208 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fc…7cc1backed Nets | 62c | 19.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 144 | 71.5%103 W · 41 L | +22.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +25%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb9…1641backed Warriors | 59c | 18.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x810d…6080backed Warriors | 59c | 18.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ac…40d1backed Warriors | 56c | 17.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Warriors (-10.5)this page
- Ben Saraf: Points O/U 9.5Yes won
- Brandin Podziemski: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Nets vs. WarriorsWarriors won
- Nets vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylineNets won
- Nets vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Nets vs. Warriors: O/U 214.5Over won
- Nets vs. Warriors: O/U 215.5Under won
- Nets vs. Warriors: O/U 216.5Under won
- Nets vs. Warriors: O/U 217.5Under won
- Nets vs. Warriors: O/U 218.5Under won
- Nets vs. Warriors: O/U 219.5Under won
- Spread: Warriors (-11.5)Nets won
- Spread: Warriors (-12.5)Nets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.