TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Europa Conference League · resolved market

Qarabağ Ağdam FK vs. PFK CSKA Sofia: O/U 3.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,352
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,129

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,352 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Over21c1,923$403 inLost-$403.271,60438.9%624 W · 980 L-17.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under79c1,516$1,196 inWon+$320.163,72647%1,750 W · 1,976 L+20.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over5c1,054$53 inLost-$53.012,16737.6%815 W · 1,352 L+5.7wins0.00per pick37cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Over30c818.15$247 inLost-$246.8916940.2%68 W · 101 L-11.1wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-20.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Under69c532.33$367 inWon+$165.0266150.5%334 W · 327 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Over29c521$152 inLost-$152.4917233.7%58 W · 114 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-23.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x68ff…997ebacked Over31c483.87$150 inLost-$1501050%5 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Under70c422.14$294 inWon+$127.6527545.8%126 W · 149 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb763…cce5backed Under71c280.97$200 inWon+$80.971662.5%10 W · 6 L+3.7wins+0.23per pick39cpaid+88.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Over10c266.02$27 inLost-$27.342,47333.9%839 W · 1,634 L-95.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-25%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x789c…0d10backed Under78c254.65$199 inWon+$55.9729959.5%178 W · 121 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb20…3b5cbacked Under71c211.27$150 inWon+$61.276363.5%40 W · 23 L+6.4wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+19.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over17c200$33 inLost-$3381440.5%330 W · 484 L-21.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Under71c145.86$103 inWon+$42.6265549.8%326 W · 329 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4f…9804backed Under69c111.29$77 inWon+$34.3844156%247 W · 194 L+22.7wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under71c95.9$68 inWon+$27.91,57355.7%876 W · 697 L+25.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeff7…fc2bbacked Over31c89.29$28 inLost-$27.68812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.26per pick38cpaid-78.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Under70c75.07$53 inWon+$22.3747649.4%235 W · 241 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Under73c74.75$55 inWon+$20.1879354.2%430 W · 363 L+17.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Over27c70.9$19 inLost-$19.1416446.3%76 W · 88 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Under70c68.02$47 inWon+$20.681,03346.1%476 W · 557 L-3.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed Under79c64.07$50 inWon+$13.785260.9%519 W · 333 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+1.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x793c…1b9ebacked Over29c56.5$16 inLost-$16.3940%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3d3b…28bdbacked Over31c54.84$17 inLost-$1712242.6%52 W · 70 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00d2…fe64backed Over27c51$14 inLost-$13.772128.6%6 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-21.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc9f0…f1b2backed Under71c47.5$34 inWon+$13.784100%4 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under73c47.15$34 inWon+$12.731,31650.8%668 W · 648 L+33.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Over30c43.5$13 inLost-$13.052,33341.7%972 W · 1,361 L+25.5wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Over29c36.1$10 inLost-$10.471,11435.8%399 W · 715 L-13.0wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84d4…77a9backed Under74c31.37$23 inWon+$8.1929654.1%160 W · 136 L+8.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6db…3155backed Under69c30$21 inWon+$9.323951.5%123 W · 116 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab95…6c79backed Under74c24.97$18 inWon+$6.494564.4%29 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeda9…f624backed Under70c23.5$16 inWon+$7.0511168.5%76 W · 35 L+10.6wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+17.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.