Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x171da7c96f51ebe0251b180fa03af2c7d49d43e866effecd0fa8ad94d71b4aef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,870
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,714
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,870 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 34c | 730$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.7 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 52c | 435.74$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.58 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 300.25$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.33 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 36c | 300.15$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.08 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 242.56$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.09 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 48c | 234.66$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.75 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 28c | 234.25$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.73 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 33c | 233.82$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.92 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 62c | 227.01$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.21 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 34c | 218.69$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.01 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 63c | 215$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.7 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 31c | 211.53$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.25 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.07 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 32c | 180$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.8 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 58c | 169.06$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.02 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…9e66backed Yes | 32c | 168.58$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.45 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 71c | 166.53$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.77 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 29c | 164.86$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.63 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x245d…4271backed No | 67c | 164.49$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.13 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 65c | 160$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 159.62$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.83 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc9a…1757backed Yes | 31c | 154.84$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.84 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 72c | 138$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.36 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 137.35$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.9 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 38c | 137.11$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.16 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6527…c01fbacked Yes | 51c | 131.98$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.24 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed Yes | 62c | 131.48$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 64c | 130.28$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.61 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 62c | 126.16$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.44 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked Yes | 33c | 122.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.98 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 62c | 121.18$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.71 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 63c | 114$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.37 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe95a…534bbacked Yes | 45c | 111.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 67cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 31c | 108$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.16 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8759…4fe3backed Yes | 38c | 107.22$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.48 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 39c | 107$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.61 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 72c | 104.27$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.68 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 38c | 100.65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.29 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 53c | 100.22$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.54 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…5f93backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.33 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 65c | 97.08$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.64 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…08dfbacked Yes | 41c | 86.19$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.19 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 32c | 86$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.46 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 57c | 80.42$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.21 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 66c | 80$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 64c | 80$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 54c | 77.04$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 43c | 75.8$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 61c | 74.64$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.33 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a89…de7dbacked Yes | 39c | 72.89$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.37 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec22…b932backed No | 59c | 72.71$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.73 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f88…cdcbbacked No | 55c | 70$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 70$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…c159backed No | 70c | 66.58$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 58c | 57.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e7…8ffbbacked Yes | 44c | 56.48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.57 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 49c | 54.96$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 33c | 54.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.68 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 59c | 54.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 60c | 53.63$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 59c | 52.32$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 38c | 51.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.95 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9d…a422backed Yes | 52c | 51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 70c | 50.77$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.54 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 30c | 47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.97 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 58c | 46.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 40c | 46.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.67 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 26c | 45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 65c | 44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 65c | 43.72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed No | 60c | 42.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 57c | 37.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa138…7a9bbacked No | 67c | 37.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -4.5wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 54c | 37.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes | 47c | 36.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 52c | 36.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes | 44c | 36.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 149 | 32.9%49 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…c040backed Yes | 47c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 43c | 34.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.37 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3a…3bb3backed Yes | 36c | 33.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 36c | 33.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.47 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 70c | 33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed No | 54c | 32.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 56c | 30.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes | 36c | 30.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3163…15c2backed Yes | 43c | 29.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f7…4a5abacked Yes | 43c | 29.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 46c | 26.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa967…79a5backed No | 64c | 25.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 64c | 25.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 65c | 24.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 50c | 23.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 69c | 21.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on July 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on July 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.