Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfcf07a00bd4afaf6539ac6d9df82269c7ec53c3f26dd286dc7916fd462d5284f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,083
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,719
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,083 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ff4…6cc4backed Yes | 46c | 1,055$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 60c | 1,048$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.29 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 40c | 1,029$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.47 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 37c | 640$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.8 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 39c | 568.13$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.25 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c76…c8d5backed Yes | 19c | 354.15$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.68 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 44cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 3c | 324.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 38c | 267.19$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.51 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc9a…1757backed Yes | 41c | 265.26$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.46 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 45c | 263.11$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.83 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 57c | 260.58$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.71 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 37c | 252.65$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.48 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 64c | 247.47$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 72c | 235.39$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.88 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 50c | 225$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.92 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 63c | 211.43$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.94 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed No | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 37c | 171.53$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.71 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 38c | 170$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 50c | 164$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.11 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 53c | 160$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.97 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 51c | 150$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 146$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.21 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 41c | 145.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 40c | 141.54$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.15 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 57c | 136$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.48 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 71c | 133.08$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.26 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 59c | 130.25$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.5 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 64c | 130$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 57c | 126.54$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.01 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 39c | 121.97$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.99 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 61c | 120.87$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.56 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23e2…3b86backed Yes | 26c | 117.81$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 50c | 109.82$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.16 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f88…cdcbbacked Yes | 68c | 109.47$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes | 50c | 109.35$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.96 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 54c | 106.4$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.67 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.2 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 97$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 58c | 96.66$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.53 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 41c | 95.56$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.77 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 50c | 92.77$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.35 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 91.74$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.81 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 27c | 91.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 41c | 86$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.23 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 58c | 80.42$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.01 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 18c | 77.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 60c | 72.06$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.85 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 51c | 58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 37c | 57.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 55.19$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 46c | 53.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 63c | 53$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 33c | 52.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 61c | 51.57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9379…1145backed Yes | 52c | 50.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 43c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8759…4fe3backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 51c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e7…c275backed Yes | 61c | 49.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.44 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 42c | 49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 60c | 47.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 49c | 47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 46c | 46.86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 25c | 46.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a89…de7dbacked Yes | 49c | 45.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 46c | 43.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 65c | 41.75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a08…1a00backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 50c | 39.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…24d7backed Yes | 30c | 39.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 46c | 36.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8db8…e377backed Yes | 36c | 36.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1906…c647backed No | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf0…bc70backed No | 64c | 34.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.30per pick | 60cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 41c | 34.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3f…cd87backed Yes | 36c | 33.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb74d…4d78backed No | 61c | 32.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 66c | 31.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…5f93backed Yes | 37c | 31.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 35c | 31.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa967…79a5backed Yes | 51c | 29.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x091c…81fdbacked Yes | 43c | 28.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…6468backed Yes | 53c | 28.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 27.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 38c | 27.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 39c | 25.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed No | 62c | 25.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 50c | 25.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…3ce8backed No | 60c | 24.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 60c | 24.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on July 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on July 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on July 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.