TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Cavaliers (-16.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Cavaliersof Cavaliers, Wizards
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$61,494
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$62,033

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,494 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5227…f9bdbacked Cavaliers54c23,165$12,408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,756.8110252.9%54 W · 48 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Wizards46c20,962$9,706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,705.929,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Cavaliers49c10,500$5,145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,35538253.4%204 W · 178 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Wizards51c10,000$5,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,1001,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Wizards45c3,758$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,699.774,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Wizards46c2,560$1,186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,185.554,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77fe…551dbacked Wizards49c2,041$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00024450%122 W · 122 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Cavaliers55c2,000$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$899.991,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5858…dc6bbacked Cavaliers54c1,853$1,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$852.351233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-21.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Wizards46c1,392$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.313,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Wizards48c1,351$643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643.313,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x10d4…69ebbacked Cavaliers56c1,000$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44062948.6%306 W · 323 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Cavaliers56c714.29$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.291,38954.9%762 W · 627 L+16.7wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Wizards44c677.12$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.398,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x307d…9163backed Cavaliers61c549.01$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.3127357.1%156 W · 117 L+0.9wins0.00per pick57cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc8b…d3d6backed Wizards41c538.68$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.623845.4%108 W · 130 L-6.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7cde…b97dbacked Cavaliers54c500$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23012251.6%63 W · 59 L-5.8wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Wizards45c422.22$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19066046.8%309 W · 351 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Wizards37c407.5$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.8940243.8%176 W · 226 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6027…b518backed Cavaliers55c318.18$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.181250%6 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Wizards40c314.04$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.533,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Wizards51c300$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1533,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Wizards55c300$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.973649.9%367 W · 369 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Wizards45c285.64$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.042,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Cavaliers49c233.05$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.854,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Cavaliers63c224.83$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.113,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3abc…509cbacked Wizards45c222.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+28.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc42c…42a1backed Wizards47c190$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.343052.3%225 W · 205 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a9b…7303backed Wizards47c188.67$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.6763447.5%301 W · 333 L-19.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e27…9967backed Wizards47c188.12$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.427261.1%44 W · 28 L-0.1wins0.00per pick61cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cbc…3b01backed Wizards47c188.12$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.425442.6%23 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Cavaliers53c166.75$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.2465542.9%281 W · 374 L+17.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-15.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4cb9…3783backed Wizards46c150$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6964139%250 W · 391 L+2.6wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Cavaliers55c145.64$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.641,57353.4%840 W · 733 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Wizards47c127.04$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.7195047.2%448 W · 502 L-28.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Wizards47c117.04$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.783,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2353…67bfbacked Wizards45c111.11$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Wizards47c100.99$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.4764844.8%290 W · 358 L-32.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf73e…43f1backed Wizards50c95.86$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.9316052.5%84 W · 76 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Wizards32c92.72$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.621,28323.4%300 W · 983 L-178.2wins-0.14per pick37cpaid-40.2%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x635b…195dbacked Wizards53c90$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.738252.4%200 W · 182 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Wizards47c80$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.66,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x556c…5b77backed Cavaliers54c72.14$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.181241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6fa…51e5backed Wizards37c54$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9847349%232 W · 241 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Cavaliers62c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191,75848.7%856 W · 902 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Wizards34c49.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.818157.5%104 W · 77 L+21.1wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+24.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xcd3f…8e2bbacked Wizards47c44.34$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.841540%6 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-29.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Wizards42c41.65$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.388057.5%506 W · 374 L+34.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Wizards37c40.71$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1595452.3%499 W · 455 L-17.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28ad…0614backed Wizards35c34.12$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9916036.3%58 W · 102 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdaec…eaafbacked Cavaliers49c30.61$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.6129348.5%142 W · 151 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x372d…a119backed Wizards37c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.13342.4%14 W · 19 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-0.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xabfc…173ebacked Cavaliers77c28$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.442272.7%16 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7f7…06c5backed Cavaliers49c25.12$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.8117750.8%90 W · 87 L+0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Cavaliers54c20.37$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.3729645.6%135 W · 161 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d70…fdd9backed Cavaliers69c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.26653%35 W · 31 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Cavaliers69c16$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.963,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.