NBA · resolved market
Spread: Cavaliers (-16.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18135e3e068b62834ea949cb67e80bb43cc21a58c8368476a49f52786d98b7c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cavaliersof Cavaliers, Wizards
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,494
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,033
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,494 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5227…f9bdbacked Cavaliers | 54c | 23,165$12,408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,756.81 | 102 | 52.9%54 W · 48 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Wizards | 46c | 20,962$9,706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,705.92 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea2b…1fc6backed Cavaliers | 49c | 10,500$5,145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,355 | 382 | 53.4%204 W · 178 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Wizards | 51c | 10,000$5,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,100 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Wizards | 45c | 3,758$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,699.77 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Wizards | 46c | 2,560$1,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,185.55 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77fe…551dbacked Wizards | 49c | 2,041$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 244 | 50%122 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Cavaliers | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.99 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5858…dc6bbacked Cavaliers | 54c | 1,853$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$852.35 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Wizards | 46c | 1,392$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.31 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Wizards | 48c | 1,351$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.31 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…69ebbacked Cavaliers | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 629 | 48.6%306 W · 323 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Cavaliers | 56c | 714.29$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.29 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Wizards | 44c | 677.12$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.39 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x307d…9163backed Cavaliers | 61c | 549.01$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.31 | 273 | 57.1%156 W · 117 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Wizards | 41c | 538.68$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.6 | 238 | 45.4%108 W · 130 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…b97dbacked Cavaliers | 54c | 500$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Wizards | 45c | 422.22$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Wizards | 37c | 407.5$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.89 | 402 | 43.8%176 W · 226 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…b518backed Cavaliers | 55c | 318.18$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.18 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Wizards | 40c | 314.04$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.53 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Wizards | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Wizards | 55c | 300$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.9 | 736 | 49.9%367 W · 369 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Wizards | 45c | 285.64$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.04 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Cavaliers | 49c | 233.05$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.85 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Cavaliers | 63c | 224.83$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.11 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abc…509cbacked Wizards | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Wizards | 47c | 190$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.3 | 430 | 52.3%225 W · 205 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Wizards | 47c | 188.67$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.67 | 634 | 47.5%301 W · 333 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed Wizards | 47c | 188.12$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.42 | 72 | 61.1%44 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbc…3b01backed Wizards | 47c | 188.12$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.42 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Cavaliers | 53c | 166.75$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.24 | 655 | 42.9%281 W · 374 L | +17.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Wizards | 46c | 150$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 641 | 39%250 W · 391 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Cavaliers | 55c | 145.64$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.64 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Wizards | 47c | 127.04$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.71 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Wizards | 47c | 117.04$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.78 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2353…67bfbacked Wizards | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Wizards | 47c | 100.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.47 | 648 | 44.8%290 W · 358 L | -32.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73e…43f1backed Wizards | 50c | 95.86$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.93 | 160 | 52.5%84 W · 76 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Wizards | 32c | 92.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x635b…195dbacked Wizards | 53c | 90$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 382 | 52.4%200 W · 182 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Wizards | 47c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x556c…5b77backed Cavaliers | 54c | 72.14$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.18 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Wizards | 37c | 54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 473 | 49%232 W · 241 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Cavaliers | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Wizards | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 181 | 57.5%104 W · 77 L | +21.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3f…8e2bbacked Wizards | 47c | 44.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Wizards | 42c | 41.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 880 | 57.5%506 W · 374 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Wizards | 37c | 40.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 954 | 52.3%499 W · 455 L | -17.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed Wizards | 35c | 34.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaec…eaafbacked Cavaliers | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 293 | 48.5%142 W · 151 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x372d…a119backed Wizards | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfc…173ebacked Cavaliers | 77c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…06c5backed Cavaliers | 49c | 25.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 177 | 50.8%90 W · 87 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Cavaliers | 54c | 20.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 296 | 45.6%135 W · 161 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d70…fdd9backed Cavaliers | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Cavaliers | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cavaliers (-16.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5)Cavaliers won
- Alexandre Sarr: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Alexandre Sarr: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Bilal Coulibaly: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Bilal Coulibaly: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Bub Carrington: Points O/U 10.5No won
- Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- James Harden: Points O/U 21.5No won
- James Harden: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Jarrett Allen: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Kyshawn George: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- Kyshawn George: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-17.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-18.5)Cavaliers won
- Tre Johnson: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Wizards vs. CavaliersCavaliers won
- Wizards vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
- Wizards vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 122.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Cavaliers: O/U 235.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Cavaliers: O/U 236.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Cavaliers: O/U 237.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Cavaliers: O/U 238.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Cavaliers: O/U 239.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Cavaliers: O/U 240.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.