TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Wizards vs. Cavaliers: O/U 237.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,248
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,450

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,248 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Over55c5,342$2,936 inWon+$2,405.449,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34cd…9675backed Under45c5,000$2,250 inLost-$2,25022648.2%109 W · 117 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Under44c1,110$488 inLost-$488.3995651.5%492 W · 464 L+23.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9139…0b63backed Under45c900$405 inLost-$4051250%6 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over54c715.08$387 inWon+$328.334,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d1e…effebacked Over52c660$343 inWon+$316.88252.4%43 W · 39 L-0.4wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa07d…9871backed Over53c500$265 inWon+$23522846.1%105 W · 123 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under47c452.17$213 inLost-$212.524,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under46c434.67$200 inLost-$200.368,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Over54c404.55$218 inWon+$186.0917233.7%58 W · 114 L-9.7wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-9.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over55c357.53$197 inWon+$160.943,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb42c…971cbacked Over53c280$148 inWon+$131.6742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fe4…04abbacked Under48c279.98$134 inLost-$134.39633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-33.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Under48c230.11$110 inLost-$110.451,15747.9%554 W · 603 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Under45c200$90 inLost-$9024946.6%116 W · 133 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb871…9f15backed Over52c200$104 inWon+$9659144.5%263 W · 328 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16e6…dc3dbacked Over53c188.68$100 inWon+$88.683855.3%21 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ae2…20a3backed Over53c66.96$35 inWon+$31.4713951.1%71 W · 68 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Under47c61.24$29 inLost-$29.082,90238.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L-51.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under47c54.88$26 inLost-$25.763,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xacce…ce8abacked Over55c53.49$29 inWon+$24.254753.2%25 W · 22 L+4.2wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+12.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Under46c50$23 inLost-$232,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb107…a3f8backed Under47c49$23 inLost-$23.031,01851.6%525 W · 493 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Under48c46.2$22 inLost-$22.1895047.2%448 W · 502 L-28.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x48df…e4c9backed Over54c40$21 inWon+$18.621553.5%115 W · 100 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf71…9f1cbacked Over51c39.22$20 inWon+$19.2211051.8%57 W · 53 L+7.3wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under45c35.49$16 inLost-$15.975,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe792…80bcbacked Over57c35.09$20 inWon+$15.091758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x63dd…c279backed Over56c30$17 inWon+$13.29259.8%55 W · 37 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe315…3911backed Under47c29.63$14 inLost-$13.8157657.8%333 W · 243 L+13.0wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb165…daf7backed Over56c25.41$14 inWon+$11.18560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed Over56c25$14 inWon+$1171245.8%326 W · 386 L+1.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbda3…ef65backed Over54c20$11 inWon+$9.237253.5%199 W · 173 L+9.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0684…d593backed Over55c20$11 inWon+$987950.6%445 W · 434 L-16.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.