TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Legacyof Natus Vincere, Legacy
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$296,780
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$341,497

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $296,780 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 212 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1610…ae49backed Natus Vincere57c29,133$16,683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,683.2113548.9%66 W · 69 L+8.2wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+5.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x880b…c98bbacked Legacy44c23,408$10,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,028.1241040%164 W · 246 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9166…b479backed Legacy30c14,106$4,178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,927.7910749.5%53 W · 54 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Natus Vincere27c13,811$3,703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,702.941,39638.9%543 W · 853 L-41.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf1a…ba1ebacked Legacy31c7,500$2,325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,1754445.5%20 W · 24 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed Legacy31c6,042$1,863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,179.3975350.5%380 W · 373 L+16.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Natus Vincere59c5,085$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00081751.7%422 W · 395 L-6.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc303…8129backed Natus Vincere10c4,883$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.86944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf357…14a9backed Natus Vincere70c4,833$3,384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,384.1666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x490a…1d4bbacked Legacy39c4,703$1,811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,891.9929235.6%104 W · 188 L-11.0wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-15.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4097…9397backed Legacy31c4,495$1,393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,101.533551.4%18 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed Natus Vincere1c4,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406134.4%21 W · 40 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x521f…3344backed Natus Vincere21c3,455$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7306347.6%30 W · 33 L-6.2wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-24.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8cbf…0eb4backed Legacy70c3,258$2,266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$991.7437157.7%214 W · 157 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22f6…eb09backed Natus Vincere26c3,000$775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$774.997844.9%35 W · 43 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3308…f04bbacked Natus Vincere44c2,885$1,263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,262.916142.9%69 W · 92 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd63…050fbacked Natus Vincere45c2,469$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,120.353050%15 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Legacy77c2,400$1,855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$544.2840253.7%216 W · 186 L+25.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+0.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8a2c…3c32backed Natus Vincere70c2,133$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50019061.6%117 W · 73 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dcd…5ef7backed Legacy73c2,075$1,521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554.4130153.8%162 W · 139 L-1.3wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Natus Vincere38c2,054$783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$782.562,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f2d…2b35backed Natus Vincere46c2,000$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$919.9915251.3%78 W · 74 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0af2…a2bbbacked Natus Vincere70c1,660$1,162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1624348.8%21 W · 22 L+0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5038…6236backed Legacy37c1,650$618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,032.1317737.3%66 W · 111 L-16.0wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-20.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd676…104cbacked Legacy30c1,586$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,110.3411650%58 W · 58 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ff4…d731backed Natus Vincere45c1,460$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659.6919840.9%81 W · 117 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8adb…e4f6backed Natus Vincere70c1,429$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00029449.3%145 W · 149 L-10.3wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x67d6…6562backed Natus Vincere8c1,259$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$983956.4%22 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid-6.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5ec2…82babacked Natus Vincere26c1,154$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.763839.5%15 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6401…f240backed Natus Vincere54c1,152$617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$617.2835054.6%191 W · 159 L+17.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Natus Vincere68c1,125$759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$759.372,05741.5%853 W · 1,204 L-50.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x61a8…519dbacked Natus Vincere22c1,121$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25014544.8%65 W · 80 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a9b…7a35backed Natus Vincere50c1,090$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5444940.8%20 W · 29 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5a3c…38d3backed Natus Vincere1c1,080$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1324233.9%82 W · 160 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x968b…87f6backed Natus Vincere44c1,075$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4731553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed Natus Vincere13c1,057$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.4160434.1%206 W · 398 L-12.2wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1522…70febacked Natus Vincere1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1036346%167 W · 196 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0063…2dd2backed Natus Vincere42c984.14$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.7939064.4%251 W · 139 L+47.6wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+10.7%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xcb9f…345cbacked Legacy32c968.75$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$658.752665.4%17 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+23.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2772…ac19backed Legacy29c953.84$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$677.238246.3%38 W · 44 L-0.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid+12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Natus Vincere35c896.33$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.7287047.9%417 W · 453 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4cf7…4b3abacked Natus Vincere41c872$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.5215646.8%73 W · 83 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8be4…a700backed Natus Vincere70c870$609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6095253.8%28 W · 24 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-15.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Natus Vincere58c869.46$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.6338054.5%207 W · 173 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Legacy30c866.16$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603.3153244.9%239 W · 293 L+11.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Natus Vincere66c858$566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$566.281,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Natus Vincere6c813.1$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.063,41529.3%1,001 W · 2,414 L-275.1wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2f8e…0c69backed Natus Vincere37c810.81$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30026939%105 W · 164 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Legacy32c781.25$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.255,81037.8%2,196 W · 3,614 L+78.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Natus Vincere30c772.16$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.052,30945.1%1,041 W · 1,268 L-62.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ee0…d6a6backed Natus Vincere68c758.82$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5164553.3%24 W · 21 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed Legacy30c750$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52555236.2%200 W · 352 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a74…6cd2backed Natus Vincere63c739.72$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.6224262%150 W · 92 L+11.4wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b8f…2aeebacked Natus Vincere70c714.29$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5004738.3%18 W · 29 L-5.3wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-27.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1747…4afcbacked Natus Vincere57c677.28$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.220355.2%112 W · 91 L+13.6wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x499f…b72bbacked Natus Vincere47c675.47$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.4714044.3%62 W · 78 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+14%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Legacy65c660.59$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.942154.6%230 W · 191 L+13.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d7e…2ef7backed Legacy52c623.31$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.9316858.9%99 W · 69 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff6b…e45fbacked Legacy80c618.26$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.741250%6 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6be…a0f3backed Natus Vincere28c600$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17110449%51 W · 53 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f5b…2501backed Natus Vincere37c600$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2223246.9%15 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfffe…4e6cbacked Legacy32c594.26$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.0427649.3%136 W · 140 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeffb…4fb5backed Natus Vincere70c571.43$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4004057.5%23 W · 17 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+9.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe05…8b13backed Natus Vincere53c566.04$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-13.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc0c…dac0backed Legacy77c541.62$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.2340175.1%301 W · 100 L+20.2wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Natus Vincere46c510.86$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.997,89250.5%3,983 W · 3,909 L+182.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x949e…20afbacked Natus Vincere40c503$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.9943137.8%163 W · 268 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93c9…b32cbacked Legacy38c500$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3103633.3%12 W · 24 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-29.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Natus Vincere40c495.02$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.4267645%304 W · 372 L-24.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x77ac…1bf6backed Natus Vincere62c477.45$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.7527961.3%171 W · 108 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+4.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd055…28d0backed Natus Vincere33c436.54$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.0665346.9%306 W · 347 L+18.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Legacy27c430$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.585446.4%396 W · 458 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcda7…af42backed Natus Vincere70c426.9$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.832166.7%14 W · 7 L-0.1wins0.00per pick67cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x994d…3d8dbacked Natus Vincere34c409.75$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.6152834.3%181 W · 347 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Natus Vincere15c400$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.925,26231.3%1,647 W · 3,615 L-381.6wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6e2c…787cbacked Natus Vincere37c361.7$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.8472644.4%322 W · 404 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3bb…f386backed Legacy75c319.42$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.03560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ab3…3044backed Natus Vincere71c317.93$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.61,06242.2%448 W · 614 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe27c…79e0backed Legacy31c312.19$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.4123161.5%142 W · 89 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83c8…3b6cbacked Natus Vincere67c300$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,03857.4%596 W · 442 L+18.4wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c52…1a59backed Legacy31c300$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2079450%47 W · 47 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x79c6…4cf3backed Natus Vincere70c300$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21013951.8%72 W · 67 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5537…f9c8backed Natus Vincere64c299.99$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.9930259.3%179 W · 123 L0.0wins0.00per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Natus Vincere46c296$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.452,59947.8%1,242 W · 1,357 L-30.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf71e…917bbacked Natus Vincere70c285.71$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2006560%39 W · 26 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9135…8d9cbacked Natus Vincere36c265$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.147740.3%31 W · 46 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-22.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e54…511ebacked Natus Vincere65c263$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.9838444.3%170 W · 214 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda4c…1cc2backed Natus Vincere37c260.22$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.284341.9%18 W · 25 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbf3…aa3abacked Legacy39c256.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.4122949.8%114 W · 115 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6c4…8930backed Legacy39c256.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.416237.1%23 W · 39 L-5.3wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-31.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x072e…df3abacked Natus Vincere73c252.77$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.522944.8%13 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Natus Vincere29c250$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.52,42944.6%1,083 W · 1,346 L-63.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3045…195cbacked Legacy40c242.38$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.851827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb9b2…8e7dbacked Natus Vincere71c241$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.1114247.2%67 W · 75 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Legacy30c240$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.73,16545.7%1,446 W · 1,719 L-74.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2fcb…4289backed Legacy41c235$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.515052%78 W · 72 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5011…94b4backed Natus Vincere39c230.99$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.0949841.8%208 W · 290 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Legacy30c221.36$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.021,71446.7%801 W · 913 L+1.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Legacy60c214.96$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.042,49141.1%1,023 W · 1,468 L-114.2wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x299f…2c50backed Natus Vincere38c200.1$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.3871739.6%284 W · 433 L-25.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-19.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.