Fifa International · resolved market
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18ed8c9df0e6c00af248247ff128398b398d73c38d7de384fa1eefa18e988127
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,162
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,890
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,162 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 36c | 3,868$1,374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,494.15 | 864 | 52.7%455 W · 409 L | +26.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 59c | 2,155$1,262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,261.9 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30da…a11dbacked Over | 64c | 1,815$1,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,167 | 278 | 20.1%56 W · 222 L | -17.2wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x318d…e94cbacked Over | 65c | 872.66$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.13 | 174 | 62.1%108 W · 66 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37d9…5442backed Over | 64c | 867.19$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555 | 314 | 35.7%112 W · 202 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…1366backed Over | 64c | 780.81$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 130 | 43.8%57 W · 73 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Under | 36c | 731.19$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.95 | 176 | 29%51 W · 125 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Under | 37c | 536.8$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.19 | 465 | 50.3%234 W · 231 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…dcb6backed Under | 40c | 499.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.99 | 232 | 51.7%120 W · 112 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9516…0bcbbacked Over | 64c | 472.16$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 562 | 40.6%228 W · 334 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c0…0974backed Under | 55c | 448.38$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.5 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…50c8backed Over | 59c | 400$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Under | 36c | 354.69$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 36c | 347$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.08 | 2,380 | 53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L | +76.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 36c | 346.23$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.9 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 37c | 346.17$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.53 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 41c | 250$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.5 | 1,559 | 52.4%817 W · 742 L | +97.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00ad…4fd1backed Under | 37c | 208.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.66 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.5wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf6…ffe3backed Over | 59c | 183.05$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +75%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Over | 60c | 176.95$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.55 | 1,475 | 44.9%663 W · 812 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe619…6342backed Over | 59c | 170.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 479 | 35.1%168 W · 311 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa52…1dc9backed Over | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x371e…0f81backed Over | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8783…db0cbacked Over | 64c | 155.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 193 | 42%81 W · 112 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff1…cb8fbacked Over | 65c | 154.01$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62c4…0f96backed Over | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Under | 39c | 153.43$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.27 | 660 | 56.8%375 W · 285 L | +34.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Under | 37c | 150$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.5 | 320 | 42.2%135 W · 185 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d3…71cfbacked Under | 39c | 149.98$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.49 | 119 | 39.5%47 W · 72 L | -9.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x26eb…22d0backed Under | 39c | 149.97$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.48 | 291 | 54%157 W · 134 L | +21.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcaea…5795backed Over | 63c | 135.22$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.23 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Under | 41c | 108$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.72 | 249 | 47.4%118 W · 131 L | +14.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 481 | 47.8%230 W · 251 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e47…7ecbbacked Over | 62c | 98.39$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +55%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb83e…9f42backed Over | 64c | 84.02$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.77 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa146…6163backed Over | 36c | 82.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb116…c4e1backed Over | 62c | 80.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…e6d8backed Under | 41c | 79.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.39 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b57…263ebacked Over | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 397 | 52.1%207 W · 190 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade3…bba5backed Over | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 101 | 47.5%48 W · 53 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…4288backed Over | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f8…9aa4backed Over | 21c | 77.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf4…ac20backed Over | 29c | 68.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 345 | 33.6%116 W · 229 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x370a…cd77backed Under | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 91 | 40.7%37 W · 54 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd31c…7424backed Over | 60c | 65$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 300 | 60%180 W · 120 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6b…3f80backed Over | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Under | 41c | 63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.17 | 791 | 49.2%389 W · 402 L | +28.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac50…d728backed Over | 19c | 60.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Under | 40c | 59.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.99 | 559 | 42.4%237 W · 322 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 38c | 58.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.19 | 2,796 | 56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L | -9.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fd…8947backed Under | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…5aaebacked Under | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 415 | 51.8%215 W · 200 L | +21.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd39…04e0backed Over | 60c | 48.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a07…267fbacked Over | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb1…b81dbacked Over | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfac0…3086backed Over | 43c | 46.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x113f…ae4dbacked Under | 41c | 45.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 174 | 48.9%85 W · 89 L | +9.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa278…3369backed Over | 49c | 43.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 1,111 | 24.3%270 W · 841 L | -32.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Under | 41c | 42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 192 | 57.8%111 W · 81 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 41c | 40.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xce74…e6ecbacked Over | 65c | 38.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 280 | 55%154 W · 126 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Under | 35c | 37.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.58 | 778 | 45%350 W · 428 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7668…9db2backed Under | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45e4…3c69backed Over | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1853…6c81backed Over | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 105 | 53.3%56 W · 49 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe05c…6ac6backed Over | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 36c | 31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 3,286 | 49.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L | +6.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1551…b2dbbacked Over | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Under | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 246 | 54.1%133 W · 113 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…9410backed Under | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d39…ba51backed Under | 70c | 27.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x620d…a2f2backed Over | 64c | 27.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 143 | 74.8%107 W · 36 L | +9.8wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf348…e543backed Under | 75c | 25.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 401 | 63.3%254 W · 147 L | +57.7wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x66ee…c9cdbacked Over | 60c | 17.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 88 | 58%51 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x474b…d7e1backed Over | 60c | 17.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27b5…9650backed Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508b…9c09backed Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Cornersthis page
- Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total CornersUnder won
- Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total CornersUnder won
- Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total CornersOver won
- Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total CornersOver won
- Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total CornersOver won
- Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Argentina O/U 5.5 CornersUnder won
- Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Argentina O/U 6.5 CornersUnder won
- Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Argentina O/U 7.5 CornersUnder won
- Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 CornersOver won
- Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 CornersUnder won
- Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 3.5 CornersUnder won
- Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total CornersUnder won
- Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total CornersUnder won
- Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 12.5 Total CornersUnder won
- Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 6.5 Total CornersOver won
- Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total CornersUnder won
- Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total CornersUnder won
- Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total CornersUnder won
- Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Take First CornerCabo Verde won
- Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Total Corners Odd or Even?Odd won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.