NBA · resolved market

Spread: 76ers (-2.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19789386a9f05465466acf3ee85a0d565f67c653812060a776fbcd46d095b5ea

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: 76ersof 76ers, Bucks
Resolved: Nov 21, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $59,484
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $60,906

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,484 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xea34…0a92backed Bucks	54c	19,090$10,380 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,379.79	66	54.5%36 W · 30 L	+3.4wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Bucks	53c	11,183$5,925 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,925.29	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked 76ers	49c	10,054$4,919 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,134.92	857	42.6%365 W · 492 L	-15.6wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Bucks	50c	5,000$2,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,500	453	48.1%218 W · 235 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed 76ers	47c	4,000$1,880 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,120	517	53.8%278 W · 239 L	+11.6wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Bucks	51c	2,687$1,371 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,371.09	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked 76ers	45c	2,026$922 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,104.19	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked 76ers	45c	1,376$626 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$749.8	2,736	46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L	-67.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x18c4…106dbacked Bucks	53c	835.25$443 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$442.68	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.2wins	-0.20per pick	53cpaid	-34%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked 76ers	46c	814.06$374 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$439.71	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Bucks	50c	781$391 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$390.55	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked 76ers	47c	745$350 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$394.85	1,451	49.7%721 W · 730 L	+18.0wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Bucks	53c	500$265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$265	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e13…732fbacked 76ers	47c	425.53$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$225.53	66	48.5%32 W · 34 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Bucks	53c	425$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225.25	208	38%79 W · 129 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe550…2c8bbacked 76ers	47c	421.28$198 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$223.28	357	49.6%177 W · 180 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed 76ers	47c	420$197 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$222.6	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1377…56aebacked Bucks	53c	399.99$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$211.99	74	47.3%35 W · 39 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Bucks	51c	281$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.31	1,139	48.3%550 W · 589 L	+3.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9bbe…9e96backed 76ers	50c	253$127 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$126.5	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.31per pick	36cpaid	+36.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked 76ers	47c	230$108 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$121.9	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd588…b829backed 76ers	50c	220$110 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$110	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked 76ers	48c	208.33$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$108.33	1,259	48.7%613 W · 646 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2e75…fee1backed Bucks	52c	204$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.08	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e32…a6fbbacked 76ers	50c	203$102 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$101.5	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.15per pick	52cpaid	+34%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe78e…55f0backed Bucks	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	346	45.7%158 W · 188 L	+12.9wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3bc…201fbacked Bucks	52c	200$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.1wins	-0.19per pick	52cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ffb…df76backed 76ers	50c	200$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	470	48.5%228 W · 242 L	-18.6wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1ae4…a127backed Bucks	52c	192.31$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	110	41.8%46 W · 64 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d20…f812backed 76ers	48c	185.87$90 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$95.87	603	46.4%280 W · 323 L	-12.0wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbbfe…64eebacked 76ers	50c	184$92 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-1.2wins	-0.16per pick	53cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa97e…1798backed Bucks	52c	180$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.6	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6e4…22ccbacked 76ers	48c	149.97$72 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$77.99	377	50.4%190 W · 187 L	+12.6wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa84b…ceaebacked Bucks	52c	144$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.88	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.15per pick	52cpaid	+27.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5961…56dbbacked 76ers	50c	140$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70	378	48.9%185 W · 193 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a31…532cbacked Bucks	52c	132$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.64	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-2.5wins	-0.36per pick	50cpaid	-73%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbe80…e0a6backed 76ers	50c	119.8$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.9	32	50%16 W · 16 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed 76ers	47c	100$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea41…2312backed Bucks	55c	100$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8cbb…acb2backed Bucks	51c	100$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	890	50.4%449 W · 441 L	+4.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xf5d3…e601backed 76ers	48c	97.44$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.82	135	50.4%68 W · 67 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc4f1…f0e8backed Bucks	52c	96.15$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	81	55.6%45 W · 36 L	+2.9wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x10f7…26f0backed Bucks	51c	92$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.92	74	51.4%38 W · 36 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed 76ers	49c	76$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.76	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Bucks	54c	70$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.8	319	47.6%152 W · 167 L	-18.8wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd0e0…4d8fbacked 76ers	49c	68.02$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.69	659	50.8%335 W · 324 L	+15.7wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed 76ers	49c	68.02$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.69	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e44…3cefbacked 76ers	49c	58$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.58	41	48.8%20 W · 21 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfaf…4f6bbacked Bucks	54c	51.7$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.92	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.49per pick	49cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x70df…bca8backed 76ers	50c	50$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25	327	50.2%164 W · 163 L	-10.2wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x19a7…3ec1backed Bucks	54c	50$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	93	48.4%45 W · 48 L	-5.5wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x34da…367fbacked Bucks	51c	50$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.5	75	57.3%43 W · 32 L	+5.1wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked 76ers	48c	49.99$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26	801	46.4%372 W · 429 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce49…4740backed 76ers	48c	41.73$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.7	236	42.4%100 W · 136 L	-3.9wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc582…a75fbacked 76ers	49c	40.82$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.82	30	40%12 W · 18 L	-5.0wins	-0.17per pick	57cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed 76ers	47c	40$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.2	1,695	44.7%758 W · 937 L	-30.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcda0…6d11backed 76ers	50c	40$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	49	63.3%31 W · 18 L	+5.2wins	+0.11per pick	53cpaid	+17.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8d4e…8163backed Bucks	52c	38.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	54	48.1%26 W · 28 L	-2.4wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x97f1…c325backed Bucks	53c	37.74$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	81	49.4%40 W · 41 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e47…a7abbacked Bucks	54c	37.04$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	498	52.4%261 W · 237 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3552…f07bbacked Bucks	54c	37.04$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	168	49.4%83 W · 85 L	+4.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6079…81c6backed Bucks	54c	37.04$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	105	48.6%51 W · 54 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9aed…bd17backed Bucks	54c	27.78$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	33	42.4%14 W · 19 L	-4.3wins	-0.13per pick	55cpaid	-30%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe169…87c9backed 76ers	50c	23.92$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.96	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	-2.3wins	-0.14per pick	58cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed 76ers	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57eb…3a67backed 76ers	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	63	46%29 W · 34 L	+2.8wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a51…ef48backed 76ers	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	66	42.4%28 W · 38 L	-5.1wins	-0.08per pick	50cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0fbd…6ffebacked 76ers	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	90	42.2%38 W · 52 L	-6.2wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc54f…dce8backed Bucks	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	634	27.3%173 W · 461 L	-19.7wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5fe…5962backed Bucks	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	36	44.4%16 W · 20 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	41cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1887…d066backed 76ers	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.16per pick	50cpaid	+32%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: 76ers (-2.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event