TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 29.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$30,118
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$30,182

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,118 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x210d…a04bbacked No0c26,660$27 inLost-$26.66520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-63%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb307…be4abacked Yes52c565.2$291 inWon+$273.9218842.6%80 W · 108 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0273…1867backed No54c270.11$146 inLost-$145.8629040.3%117 W · 173 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fbd…3d15backed No48c262.15$126 inLost-$125.8376247.1%359 W · 403 L+2.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed No48c233.72$113 inLost-$112.672,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed Yes46c199.99$92 inWon+$107.9956050.4%282 W · 278 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Yes37c136.17$50 inWon+$86.023,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87ed…b497backed No50c131$66 inLost-$65.59947.5%47 W · 52 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd071…b4dabacked Yes47c56.4$27 inWon+$29.899146.2%42 W · 49 L+5.5wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc322…a836backed No79c53.09$42 inLost-$41.73528.6%10 W · 25 L-8.4wins-0.24per pick53cpaid-43.9%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xce9d…a219backed Yes50c48.11$24 inWon+$24.069944.4%44 W · 55 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdffd…924fbacked Yes51c47.58$24 inWon+$23.3113949.6%69 W · 70 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e3d…b56cbacked No53c36.67$19 inLost-$19.4437344.2%165 W · 208 L-19.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x67f5…8d8cbacked No54c35.83$19 inLost-$19.3520%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb684…343cbacked No52c26.46$14 inLost-$13.7621056.7%119 W · 91 L-0.5wins0.00per pick57cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked No47c24.55$12 inLost-$11.5423741.4%98 W · 139 L-12.0wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-18.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x44ab…e7b6backed No53c24.2$13 inLost-$12.832556%14 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-4.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xae45…96b9backed No52c19.57$10 inLost-$10.1240546.9%190 W · 215 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.