NBA · resolved market
Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x322f778957ecc0e202d2193320947bf8ca7b76f88affd0943826cc32617a53f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,827
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,989
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,827 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 1c | 9,718$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.18 | 1,282 | 43.4%557 W · 725 L | -51.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 59c | 4,941$2,896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,045.06 | 844 | 43%363 W · 481 L | -40.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Under | 43c | 4,745$2,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,040.56 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 57c | 3,727$2,123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,603.19 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 41c | 1,707$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.87 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Under | 47c | 1,597$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.64 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…6f22backed Under | 44c | 1,549$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681.69 | 172 | 50%86 W · 86 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 53c | 1,380$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.53 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73f3…0d2cbacked Over | 56c | 1,217$682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.48 | 70 | 54.3%38 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 42c | 1,051$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.34 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 42c | 859.09$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.64 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 42c | 460.5$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.19 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 41c | 440.64$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.39 | 1,317 | 47.8%629 W · 688 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Under | 41c | 379$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.12 | 260 | 34.6%90 W · 170 L | -20.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafe4…f3f7backed Over | 58c | 351.61$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.68 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 57c | 199.54$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.8 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2573…2726backed Over | 59c | 155.4$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.72 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Over | 57c | 148.08$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.67 | 452 | 51.1%231 W · 221 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0043…a525backed Over | 57c | 145.28$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.47 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 56c | 125.63$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.28 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Under | 38c | 113.92$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 688 | 38.5%265 W · 423 L | -26.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ec…41aebacked Under | 41c | 107.32$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 160 | 39.4%63 W · 97 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 41c | 100.66$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.18 | 1,399 | 46.4%649 W · 750 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Over | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 57c | 93.5$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.64 | 596 | 50.3%300 W · 296 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Under | 12c | 90$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 335 | 56.7%190 W · 145 L | +26.4wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 41c | 88.44$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.33 | 1,277 | 47.2%603 W · 674 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 44c | 87.85$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.66 | 271 | 38.7%105 W · 166 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa38a…821dbacked Over | 66c | 79.96$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.19 | 931 | 48.4%451 W · 480 L | +34.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 43c | 79.3$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 870 | 49.3%429 W · 441 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3c…9320backed Over | 57c | 68.36$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 253 | 60.1%152 W · 101 L | +26.2wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed Over | 66c | 59.8$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 317 | 48.9%155 W · 162 L | -12.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 43c | 48.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aec…b968backed Over | 55c | 39.93$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 57c | 38.27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 44c | 36.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 42c | 35.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 46c | 34.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 390 | 41%160 W · 230 L | -32.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9681…9199backed Over | 56c | 34.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…3222backed Over | 56c | 34.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Under | 47c | 34.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +5.9wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…e5acbacked Over | 67c | 30.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 200 | 55.5%111 W · 89 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Over | 53c | 30.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 786 | 48.7%383 W · 403 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4615…e3d3backed Over | 55c | 20.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb48…896fbacked Over | 55c | 19.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 53cpaid | +90.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-10.5)Suns won
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Suns won
- Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Devin Booker: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Devin Booker: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Dillon Brooks: Assists O/U 1.5No won
- Dillon Brooks: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Dillon Brooks: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Isaiah Hartenstein: Rebounds O/U 2.5Yes won
- Jalen Green: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- Jalen Williams: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- Jordan Goodwin: Points O/U 1.5No won
- Mark Williams: Assists O/U 0.5No won
- Mark Williams: Points O/U 2.5No won
- Mark Williams: Rebounds O/U 2.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 29.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Spread: Thunder (-16.5)Suns won
- Spread: Thunder (-17.5)Suns won
- Spread: Thunder (-19.5)Suns won
- Suns vs. ThunderThunder won
- Suns vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Suns vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Suns vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 110.5Over won
- Suns vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 111.5Over won
- Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5Over won
- Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 214.5Over won
- Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 215.5Over won
- Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.