TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

1H Spread: Thunder (-10.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Sunsof Thunder, Suns
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,678
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,534

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,678 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xafe4…f3f7backed Suns51c3,035$1,548 inWon+$1,486.9615850.6%80 W · 78 L+10.3wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+21.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Thunder49c2,974$1,457 inLost-$1,457.171,75240.6%712 W · 1,040 L-3.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14fe…e0fdbacked Suns45c1,550$698 inWon+$852.53259.4%19 W · 13 L+3.3wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+21.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Thunder55c1,508$829 inLost-$829.481,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd85a…1d03backed Suns62c406.02$251 inWon+$154.617570.7%53 W · 22 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick67cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Thunder44c177.94$78 inLost-$78.1887049.3%429 W · 441 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Thunder49c148$73 inLost-$72.5256843.8%249 W · 319 L-25.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Thunder18c95.08$17 inLost-$17.1152230.3%158 W · 364 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Thunder49c82.03$40 inLost-$40.3423741.4%98 W · 139 L-12.0wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-18.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf6c8…a184backed Thunder33c60$20 inLost-$19.840440.1%162 W · 242 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6683…f5f4backed Thunder44c48.32$21 inLost-$21.2614649.3%72 W · 74 L+0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb0f…b652backed Thunder33c46.72$15 inLost-$15.4226639.8%106 W · 160 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed Suns51c44.24$23 inWon+$21.6349247.2%232 W · 260 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17bf…c183backed Thunder51c34.26$17 inLost-$17.4730%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf4f…f538backed Thunder33c32.09$11 inLost-$10.597339.7%29 W · 44 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd2c8…d506backed Suns51c28.55$15 inWon+$13.996241.9%26 W · 36 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5345…666abacked Suns51c20.82$11 inWon+$10.26942%29 W · 40 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid+30.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.