TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

1H Spread: Thunder (-9.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Sunsof Thunder, Suns
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,809
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,065

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,809 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x93bc…8ca3backed Suns45c2,139$966 inWon+$1,172.871,75240.6%712 W · 1,040 L-3.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8873…09fcbacked Thunder55c1,714$943 inLost-$942.937848.7%38 W · 40 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-10.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Suns45c307.48$138 inWon+$169.3887049.3%429 W · 441 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0273…1867backed Thunder56c262.46$146 inLost-$146.0129040.3%117 W · 173 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Thunder56c262.4$146 inLost-$146.0136248.1%174 W · 188 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x675c…4341backed Thunder54c252.1$136 inLost-$136.144348.8%21 W · 22 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Suns44c226.29$99 inWon+$127.232,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x951f…e430backed Thunder56c198.75$112 inLost-$111.9923652.5%124 W · 112 L+11.1wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4449…5095backed Suns49c197.68$97 inWon+$100.746836.8%25 W · 43 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-3.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc61d…3933backed Suns49c197.29$97 inWon+$100.3517047.6%81 W · 89 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Suns46c179.03$83 inWon+$96.293,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Thunder56c150$84 inLost-$83.923741.4%98 W · 139 L-12.0wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-18.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x50e9…5efebacked Thunder53c100$53 inLost-$5359650.3%300 W · 296 L+1.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa17a…eac9backed Thunder55c98.65$54 inLost-$54.26771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+32.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c4d…46e5backed Suns50c97.47$48 inWon+$48.986132.8%20 W · 41 L-5.1wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-5.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xac1e…ea39backed Thunder59c82.87$49 inLost-$48.777529.3%22 W · 53 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8afa…28f0backed Suns45c81.96$37 inWon+$45.4240750.6%206 W · 201 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4fc…d401backed Thunder54c76.14$41 inLost-$41.116068.3%41 W · 19 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick62cpaid+14.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xee60…6902backed Thunder50c75.5$38 inLost-$37.7537665.4%246 W · 130 L+62.0wins+0.16per pick49cpaid+31.5%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Thunder52c75$39 inLost-$38.7562047.3%293 W · 327 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed Suns41c73.97$30 inWon+$43.6479650.9%405 W · 391 L+63.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4b62…1253backed Thunder53c69.67$37 inLost-$36.9320756%116 W · 91 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d05…f729backed Suns45c53.72$24 inWon+$29.4913047.7%62 W · 68 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Suns44c48.32$21 inWon+$27.0627138.7%105 W · 166 L+0.6wins0.00per pick39cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc376…a8e7backed Thunder56c43.46$24 inLost-$24.3431748.9%155 W · 162 L-12.1wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4499…943bbacked Thunder56c31.29$18 inLost-$17.524344.2%19 W · 24 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-15.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x93dc…3728backed Thunder55c26.54$15 inLost-$14.67444.6%33 W · 41 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x673b…62dbbacked Suns47c25.64$12 inWon+$13.59540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick27cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x755a…6da6backed Suns48c24.22$12 inWon+$12.5945542.4%193 W · 262 L-0.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Thunder53c21.28$11 inLost-$11.281,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.