TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Spiritof Team Spirit, Vici Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$151,749
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$173,277

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $151,749 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 184 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe16d…5e30backed Team Spirit58c25,880$15,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,880.381,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Vici Gaming39c11,839$4,670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,670.496645.1%436 W · 530 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked Team Spirit45c11,154$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,153.5689741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Vici Gaming40c10,531$4,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,199.6445750.8%232 W · 225 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Vici Gaming48c8,191$3,958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,957.772,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Team Spirit60c7,460$4,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,990.7496557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed Vici Gaming42c6,945$2,935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,934.9969644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked Team Spirit60c6,923$4,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,749.631,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Team Spirit64c6,500$4,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,324.9980256%449 W · 353 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Team Spirit47c5,080$2,409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,671.121,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Vici Gaming42c4,705$1,967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,966.61,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbff7…92fbbacked Team Spirit59c4,000$2,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,649.9927143.5%118 W · 153 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Vici Gaming40c3,881$1,549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,548.611,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Vici Gaming39c3,682$1,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,444.271,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Vici Gaming40c3,471$1,404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,403.531,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dfd…8d75backed Team Spirit57c3,043$1,738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,304.8424251.7%125 W · 117 L+21.0wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+15.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Vici Gaming42c3,000$1,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,26015144.4%67 W · 84 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed Team Spirit59c2,788$1,644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,143.6871454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x93bd…bbc5backed Vici Gaming40c2,755$1,109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,108.8353764.4%346 W · 191 L+26.5wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9a8e…9408backed Vici Gaming6c2,731$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.596245.5%438 W · 524 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Vici Gaming42c2,557$1,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,073.7556243.2%243 W · 319 L+14.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Vici Gaming54c2,178$1,185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,185.081,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0cef…fa91backed Vici Gaming43c2,000$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8604843.8%21 W · 27 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Vici Gaming47c1,970$933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$932.891,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x974f…cd80backed Team Spirit58c1,905$1,109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$795.855147.5%262 W · 289 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed Vici Gaming42c1,882$786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$785.6644645.7%204 W · 242 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf991…3965backed Team Spirit58c1,779$1,026 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$752.631248.4%151 W · 161 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked Vici Gaming40c1,720$688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68895342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Vici Gaming40c1,639$651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651.171,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8b5…54c4backed Team Spirit46c1,629$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$878.7129240.8%119 W · 173 L+0.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Vici Gaming41c1,530$632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631.827541.3%31 W · 44 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+16.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x69bf…0c5dbacked Vici Gaming39c1,519$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$586.8436547.7%174 W · 191 L-1.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a85…ff94backed Vici Gaming33c1,506$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50029352.9%155 W · 138 L+8.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Vici Gaming45c1,504$674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$673.8877256.5%436 W · 336 L+30.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Vici Gaming42c1,500$635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6351,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a38…fee0backed Vici Gaming42c1,500$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63060349.9%301 W · 302 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd206…bd2abacked Team Spirit58c1,416$824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$591.9915957.2%91 W · 68 L+8.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xab04…a00abacked Team Spirit50c1,170$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58537945.9%174 W · 205 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed Team Spirit68c1,163$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.9754246.7%253 W · 289 L-2.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Vici Gaming46c1,149$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.472,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa62b…0f85backed Vici Gaming38c1,145$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43311742.7%50 W · 67 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked Vici Gaming58c1,000$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58079859%471 W · 327 L+16.1wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35a4…23febacked Vici Gaming40c1,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4614…6002backed Team Spirit59c999.99$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82bf…de71backed Team Spirit67c961.3$648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.0854753.6%293 W · 254 L+22.9wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6eac…ed37backed Team Spirit46c942.3$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512.357449%281 W · 293 L+33.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Vici Gaming41c899$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.9856548%271 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa35c…a113backed Team Spirit61c825.02$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.0261745.7%282 W · 335 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c27…cb5bbacked Vici Gaming67c806.66$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540.038469%58 W · 26 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3fc7…62b9backed Vici Gaming40c799.99$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32065441.9%274 W · 380 L-1.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked Team Spirit65c789.61$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28061456%344 W · 270 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Team Spirit64c750$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27079959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x66ea…6791backed Vici Gaming43c604.65$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2602857.1%16 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+13.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Vici Gaming46c603.17$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.471,15447.7%550 W · 604 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae4c…dcb9backed Vici Gaming50c600$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30028549.1%140 W · 145 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Vici Gaming39c600$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23474549.3%367 W · 378 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked Vici Gaming48c592.37$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.641,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2687…1363backed Team Spirit51c578.97$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.735758%207 W · 150 L+26.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x19b6…ad8ebacked Team Spirit74c510$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.3432652.1%170 W · 156 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0738…6392backed Team Spirit60c500$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.3521264.2%136 W · 76 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Vici Gaming51c480.71$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.113528.6%10 W · 25 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-33.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Team Spirit67c476.04$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.0980443.9%353 W · 451 L-1.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf7c…4c16backed Vici Gaming33c450$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.512136.4%44 W · 77 L-8.7wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-30.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x31d4…a7abbacked Vici Gaming45c450$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.516541.2%68 W · 97 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Vici Gaming53c422$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.0986659.6%516 W · 350 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Vici Gaming44c413.63$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.4453139.5%210 W · 321 L-37.2wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-29.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x98a7…b766backed Vici Gaming54c405.91$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.1960251.2%308 W · 294 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x611a…e171backed Team Spirit61c400$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1565853.4%31 W · 27 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c1b…de56backed Vici Gaming55c400$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22015338.6%59 W · 94 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x491d…f42bbacked Vici Gaming55c399.99$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22039660.1%238 W · 158 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Vici Gaming34c398$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.011,12036.1%404 W · 716 L-39.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x672d…dbd7backed Team Spirit54c369.28$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.2840047.5%190 W · 210 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbef…f45fbacked Team Spirit58c341.1$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.562281.8%18 W · 4 L+5.1wins+0.23per pick59cpaid+58.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xa485…92a5backed Vici Gaming39c333.39$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.599060%54 W · 36 L+6.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+10.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa949…7f5bbacked Team Spirit61c301.05$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.4219849%97 W · 101 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x36d9…c3cabacked Vici Gaming37c300$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11144149.4%218 W · 223 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x48ba…d81dbacked Vici Gaming42c290.62$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.0156343.9%247 W · 316 L-1.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Team Spirit49c285.71$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.7133850.9%172 W · 166 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked Team Spirit55c282.25$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.977458.5%453 W · 321 L+75.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdb55…51ddbacked Team Spirit63c262$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.9435960.4%217 W · 142 L-1.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x473f…9892backed Team Spirit59c256.14$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.1450053%265 W · 235 L+14.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f41…b387backed Team Spirit45c250$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.51866.7%12 W · 6 L+3.8wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+34.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6e63…9e38backed Team Spirit72c248$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.4434561.2%211 W · 134 L+17.7wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Vici Gaming41c237.23$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.271,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a05…12a2backed Vici Gaming32c224.93$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.0347650.8%242 W · 234 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8342…6dc8backed Vici Gaming45c222.83$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10048054%259 W · 221 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Vici Gaming43c200$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8526846.6%125 W · 143 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x180c…cd04backed Team Spirit66c200$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6843738.4%168 W · 269 L-1.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x922d…d82bbacked Vici Gaming33c200$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.551346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-22.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3cf…8676backed Vici Gaming5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-28.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc646…e394backed Team Spirit63c200$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7437655.1%207 W · 169 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf98b…57bbbacked Team Spirit64c200$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7241864.1%268 W · 150 L+17.2wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x45d5…a7a0backed Team Spirit57c199.97$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.9910048%48 W · 52 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Vici Gaming40c199.82$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.451,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Vici Gaming63c175$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.251,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Vici Gaming50c173.61$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.922,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9aaf…8298backed Vici Gaming45c166$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.750247.6%239 W · 263 L+31.6wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+10.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x812a…73edbacked Vici Gaming41c160.53$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.8137223.1%86 W · 286 L-38.2wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-38.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x96ef…cca4backed Vici Gaming40c158.82$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.0116242.6%69 W · 93 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7d3…698bbacked Vici Gaming63c158.73$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10048053.1%255 W · 225 L+25.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.