TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Marlins vs. Orioles

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Marlinsof Marlins, Orioles
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$314,991
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$327,841

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $314,991 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Orioles57c45,370$25,861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,860.751,53050.5%772 W · 758 L+20.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Orioles56c31,338$17,549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,549.0560249.5%298 W · 304 L+10.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3745…cf3bbacked Orioles54c26,090$14,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,088.5738047.6%181 W · 199 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fba…d08abacked Marlins46c19,385$8,917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,467.953150.5%268 W · 263 L+19.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfba6…375cbacked Marlins44c15,369$6,762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,606.3786751.8%449 W · 418 L-0.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Marlins43c12,564$5,402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,161.441850%209 W · 209 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Marlins43c12,500$5,435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,0651,15149.2%566 W · 585 L-0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65e4…a3bdbacked Orioles56c10,265$5,792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,791.8510844.4%48 W · 60 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdd8…2ee5backed Orioles59c10,174$6,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,002.4312650.8%64 W · 62 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Orioles52c8,607$4,484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,484.452,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Marlins45c6,537$2,956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,581.062,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8511…4a6bbacked Orioles56c4,530$2,539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,538.543654.8%239 W · 197 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa75c…895ebacked Marlins44c4,440$1,954 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,486.416352.1%85 W · 78 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Orioles53c3,899$2,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,066.4795850%479 W · 479 L+4.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf520…0637backed Marlins44c3,501$1,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,961.497950.2%491 W · 488 L+49.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9700…0e70backed Orioles56c3,500$1,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,96014446.5%67 W · 77 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Marlins47c3,097$1,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,652.479,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Marlins43c3,000$1,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,71026453.8%142 W · 122 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xacdf…0ec4backed Marlins47c2,533$1,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,342.2719452.6%102 W · 92 L-10.9wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-11.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x187b…26bfbacked Marlins44c2,000$880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1205352.8%28 W · 25 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+12.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2373…ddfabacked Marlins43c2,000$860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,14037446.8%175 W · 199 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Marlins46c2,000$920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,08071751%366 W · 351 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Orioles57c1,835$1,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,041.31,90953.5%1,021 W · 888 L+29.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24df…e8b2backed Orioles56c1,452$811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$811.251,20344.2%532 W · 671 L+20.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Orioles8c1,410$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.41,59150.3%801 W · 790 L+68.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Orioles56c1,125$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63073352.4%384 W · 349 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Orioles1c1,064$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.695053.8%19 W · 486 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Marlins43c1,000$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57031145.7%142 W · 169 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2934…0b51backed Marlins49c800$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4081,01051.2%517 W · 493 L+36.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed Orioles57c760$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.238249.5%189 W · 193 L-1.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x255e…4979backed Orioles50c744.56$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3743650%18 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x433f…a0dcbacked Orioles2c649.39$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9915644.9%70 W · 86 L+11.7wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+25.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Orioles5c638$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.96,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf41e…d27dbacked Orioles55c636.36$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35022546.2%104 W · 121 L-10.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe25e…0aa5backed Marlins43c600$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34214549.7%72 W · 73 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3372…1914backed Orioles60c570$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.91,38855.1%765 W · 623 L-27.6wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0229…ea6cbacked Orioles49c500$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24541747.2%197 W · 220 L+15.3wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x28bc…e520backed Marlins45c500$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27527953.4%149 W · 130 L+16.1wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Orioles2c474$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.478762.9%25 W · 851 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Marlins47c449.05$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.995,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e5b…590dbacked Marlins43c399.02$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.0266645.5%303 W · 363 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05a4…1e85backed Marlins69c373.35$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.980680%645 W · 161 L+173.6wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+34.7%equal weight73+0.21 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Orioles55c370$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.591749.9%458 W · 459 L-3.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b32…5950backed Marlins45c364$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.26347.6%30 W · 33 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Marlins46c359.98$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.191,36044.3%602 W · 758 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed Marlins46c359.07$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.081,48350.2%745 W · 738 L+5.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ca7…ed82backed Marlins44c334.24$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.5725952.5%136 W · 123 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76c8…ba09backed Orioles6c332.35$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6217927.9%50 W · 129 L-15.3wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-50.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x60a1…a8e1backed Orioles53c332.11$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.0215949.7%79 W · 80 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4dae…f8b2backed Orioles61c326.35$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20013352.6%70 W · 63 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x89ca…5b45backed Marlins44c318.18$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.187065.7%46 W · 24 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x497c…d54ebacked Orioles56c300$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16824248.8%118 W · 124 L+8.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5532…c6dbbacked Marlins44c299.5$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.7219449%95 W · 99 L+8.3wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc62f…f330backed Marlins48c279.17$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.1714649.3%72 W · 74 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0113…6f26backed Marlins54c217$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.82862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ebb…061abacked Marlins48c208.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.3314753.7%79 W · 68 L+0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Marlins48c208.02$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.022,26753.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Marlins49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.082,03352.4%1,066 W · 967 L-35.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Marlins46c200$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1083,29146.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L+20.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Marlins48c200$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1042,20350.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L+29.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa362…f906backed Marlins44c190$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.43951.3%20 W · 19 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b2c…284cbacked Orioles54c186.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10028453.9%153 W · 131 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1781…a0ecbacked Marlins58c185.92$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.7265549.3%323 W · 332 L-7.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6edc…18cebacked Orioles55c181.82$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10031356.2%176 W · 137 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe3c…a835backed Orioles57c181.63$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.5316157.1%92 W · 69 L+7.8wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x95ec…4b7ebacked Orioles48c156.25$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7538743.2%167 W · 220 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x985c…e5d2backed Marlins46c153.66$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.6654455.1%300 W · 244 L+13.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x84dc…9c02backed Marlins43c150$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.517954.7%98 W · 81 L+10.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc839…2930backed Orioles15c129.53$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203729.7%11 W · 26 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-23.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9587…cd8ebacked Marlins45c125.76$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.5731244.2%138 W · 174 L+11.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xef75…5d78backed Orioles15c125.68$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.321,35845.9%624 W · 734 L+41.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x41e3…1962backed Orioles53c113.21$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6057545.9%264 W · 311 L+0.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72fe…e2cebacked Marlins45c109$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.9551955.3%287 W · 232 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbed0…3c7dbacked Marlins46c108.7$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.71,20348.5%584 W · 619 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Marlins45c104$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.621,40248.8%684 W · 718 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88c4…fbf0backed Marlins44c100$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5617139.2%67 W · 104 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc09…9d12backed Marlins44c100$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$568253.7%44 W · 38 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Marlins47c99.99$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532,26145.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L+57.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xebd8…570cbacked Orioles42c98.78$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.6143946%202 W · 237 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Marlins66c98.75$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.694,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77c5…9a0ebacked Marlins47c95.67$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.0570841.4%293 W · 415 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a44…d80abacked Orioles56c93.86$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.5619742.6%84 W · 113 L-13.5wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-15.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3dd4…1b50backed Orioles54c93$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.222,04553.8%1,100 W · 945 L+32.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x589a…7c26backed Orioles57c87.27$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.20per pick51cpaid-41%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x38dd…c20abacked Marlins46c86.96$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.9624951.8%129 W · 120 L+10.5wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+11.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8c3…b35abacked Orioles13c85.23$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.082445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-18.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Orioles56c80.86$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.6385047.4%403 W · 447 L+1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Marlins44c80$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.849450%247 W · 247 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ca2…ca68backed Orioles57c70.18$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14d9…61cdbacked Orioles57c69.07$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.37425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Orioles55c67.09$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.915949.1%78 W · 81 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Marlins56c56$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.6334164.2%219 W · 122 L+22.2wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+8.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb853…0d33backed Marlins47c53.19$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.1963052.7%332 W · 298 L+13.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf235…366dbacked Marlins44c52.77$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.551,07846.3%499 W · 579 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94c1…b3f2backed Marlins39c51.83$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.83650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+33.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d89…40a4backed Orioles57c50$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.518052.8%95 W · 85 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3cc…a23abacked Marlins47c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.550447.2%238 W · 266 L+29.6wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Marlins46c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.151,28947.2%609 W · 680 L-18.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb03…5ae4backed Marlins52c48.7$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.5919566.2%129 W · 66 L+11.0wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+8.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa998…dec1backed Orioles53c45.98$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3720%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.