TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Tulane Green Wave vs. UAB Blazers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Tulane Green Waveof Tulane Green Wave, UAB Blazers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$68,629
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$84,922

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,629 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xabb8…bba3backed Tulane Green Wave53c10,000$5,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,70024351.4%125 W · 118 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa0b…9672backed Tulane Green Wave26c6,039$1,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,469.18517.6%15 W · 70 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick20cpaid+0.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2eed…85a9backed UAB Blazers74c3,810$2,801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,800.6411747.9%56 W · 61 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked UAB Blazers47c3,313$1,557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,557.111,53150.1%767 W · 764 L+34.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed UAB Blazers74c2,930$2,164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,163.937947.8%181 W · 198 L-26.2wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-17.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked UAB Blazers44c2,860$1,263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,262.821,54041.3%636 W · 904 L+4.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed UAB Blazers48c2,773$1,337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,336.733,38049.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L+30.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked UAB Blazers19c2,287$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.085,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Tulane Green Wave33c1,527$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,027.0325130.7%77 W · 174 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked UAB Blazers72c1,289$929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$929.4112,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed UAB Blazers47c995$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.652,00353.7%1,076 W · 927 L+101.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Tulane Green Wave65c934.83$605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.983,90558.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L+165.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed UAB Blazers32c921.11$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.572,01250%1,006 W · 1,006 L+22.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb31…7b95backed UAB Blazers35c909.71$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.4512230.3%37 W · 85 L-6.2wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-21.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked UAB Blazers72c903$655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$654.661,51147.8%722 W · 789 L-35.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked UAB Blazers72c853.65$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$614.7174152.6%390 W · 351 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00a0…bf76backed UAB Blazers20c815$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1635820.7%12 W · 46 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick17cpaid+22.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed UAB Blazers50c608.27$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.1968254.3%370 W · 312 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b66…336abacked Tulane Green Wave67c571.2$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.2724847.6%118 W · 130 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Tulane Green Wave48c568.64$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.82,04832.7%670 W · 1,378 L-16.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed UAB Blazers42c530$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.241,42043.9%623 W · 797 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Tulane Green Wave35c512.04$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.96642.4%28 W · 38 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d83…8eb4backed Tulane Green Wave79c484.67$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.983770.3%26 W · 11 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick64cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Tulane Green Wave29c446.42$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.9674649.2%367 W · 379 L+1.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Tulane Green Wave40c409.88$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.423,68442.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L+32.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Tulane Green Wave63c385.21$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.031,29645.1%584 W · 712 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51bb…a919backed Tulane Green Wave27c381.47$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.478555.3%47 W · 38 L+7.9wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+26.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Tulane Green Wave27c370.37$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.374,55250.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L-36.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa632…4c96backed UAB Blazers74c337.84$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25056444.1%249 W · 315 L+2.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ea0…f0dabacked Tulane Green Wave69c329.87$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.282552%13 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1346…0448backed Tulane Green Wave66c285$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.93145.2%14 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+26.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5cf…7b4cbacked Tulane Green Wave72c277.65$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.653174.2%23 W · 8 L+3.9wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+18.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked UAB Blazers24c271.22$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.544,84852.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L+139.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed UAB Blazers45c258.39$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.715,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed UAB Blazers30c231.3$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.682,12450.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L+40.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a8e…b505backed UAB Blazers39c227.99$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.9148051%245 W · 235 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked UAB Blazers31c225.27$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.974,38240.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L+23.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7e…4674backed UAB Blazers32c223.25$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.511136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-21.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Tulane Green Wave72c220.01$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.261,49348.7%727 W · 766 L-1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-19.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked UAB Blazers74c203.92$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.91,43647.5%682 W · 754 L-18.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Tulane Green Wave27c199.99$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.992,19433.4%733 W · 1,461 L+19.2wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…f81dbacked UAB Blazers26c187.04$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.2887047.2%411 W · 459 L-23.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Tulane Green Wave64c184.84$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.381,98564.1%1,273 W · 712 L+144.2wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcdb8…abbebacked UAB Blazers29c172.08$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.641,98326.4%523 W · 1,460 L-55.5wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb02…0f88backed UAB Blazers44c169.43$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.398641.9%36 W · 50 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-23.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0176…910ebacked Tulane Green Wave30c166.67$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.6710736.4%39 W · 68 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Tulane Green Wave27c152$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.321,07447%505 W · 569 L+1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed UAB Blazers14c148.76$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211363.7%5 W · 131 L-8.2wins-0.06per pick10cpaid-60.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1a5a…12e4backed Tulane Green Wave68c147.06$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.061172.7%8 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick64cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8d9…df36backed Tulane Green Wave32c139.23$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.2314553.1%77 W · 68 L+9.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+14.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed UAB Blazers73c136.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10093447.9%447 W · 487 L-19.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a97…c1f9backed UAB Blazers74c135.14$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10021955.3%121 W · 98 L+13.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked UAB Blazers71c134.75$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.682,68748.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L+4.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2dc4…0c92backed Tulane Green Wave26c133.2$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.5799045.6%451 W · 539 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Tulane Green Wave24c110$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.593941.6%391 W · 548 L+25.4wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x94fa…989ebacked UAB Blazers70c107.62$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.8781453.1%432 W · 382 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+3.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1347…bc3dbacked Tulane Green Wave71c102.82$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.82250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-29.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc484…af66backed Tulane Green Wave80c100.42$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.422657.7%15 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick62cpaid+5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Tulane Green Wave30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$701,31733.6%443 W · 874 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x309a…a9c1backed UAB Blazers13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1320%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ff4…743dbacked UAB Blazers47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4714451.4%74 W · 70 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked UAB Blazers73c96$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.0850548.9%247 W · 258 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed Tulane Green Wave74c91$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.6419641.8%82 W · 114 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed UAB Blazers33c87.74$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.391,24916.4%205 W · 1,044 L-189.4wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51.1%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked UAB Blazers64c81.89$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.591,66736.4%607 W · 1,060 L-4.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Tulane Green Wave61c65$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.051,95145.1%880 W · 1,071 L-19.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98a5…a6edbacked Tulane Green Wave57c63.37$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.252828.6%8 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-41.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbc8c…d58cbacked Tulane Green Wave32c62.5$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.58353%44 W · 39 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x726b…c72bbacked Tulane Green Wave31c62.03$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.83745.9%17 W · 20 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed UAB Blazers40c60.19$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.120248%97 W · 105 L-9.8wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-14.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed UAB Blazers35c57.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2023941.4%99 W · 140 L-7.1wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c16…4b37backed Tulane Green Wave65c51.35$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.8855840.3%225 W · 333 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b1f…6500backed UAB Blazers33c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.687844.9%35 W · 43 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e8f…1f83backed UAB Blazers72c50$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3664658.8%380 W · 266 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid+1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Tulane Green Wave66c49.82$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.9423363.9%149 W · 84 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe315…3911backed Tulane Green Wave31c44.55$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5521651.4%111 W · 105 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeac2…fd78backed UAB Blazers60c40.36$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.325453.7%29 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick56cpaid+9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfae3…9192backed Tulane Green Wave73c40$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.81894.4%17 W · 1 L+3.4wins+0.19per pick76cpaid+25%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x68c4…d7dfbacked Tulane Green Wave26c38.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.4917634.7%61 W · 115 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+20.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x350e…6539backed UAB Blazers53c37.83$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204045%18 W · 22 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-14.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x22cc…8aeabacked Tulane Green Wave30c37.3$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.2722730.4%69 W · 158 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd25c…9c78backed UAB Blazers36c36.21$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1980%0 W · 8 L-2.6wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6533…0f9cbacked Tulane Green Wave68c32.35$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.354866.7%32 W · 16 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x02f4…4effbacked UAB Blazers47c31.91$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157751.9%40 W · 37 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-16.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d9c…4bb6backed Tulane Green Wave73c31.61$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.52450%12 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-17.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf263…e9c1backed Tulane Green Wave64c30.53$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.994877.1%37 W · 11 L+6.7wins+0.14per pick63cpaid+22.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x02fa…547ebacked Tulane Green Wave68c29.22$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.22450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd08…84b0backed UAB Blazers47c25.89$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1729954.2%162 W · 137 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed UAB Blazers53c25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1535852%186 W · 172 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Tulane Green Wave51c24.23$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.9271655.3%396 W · 320 L+26.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf280…b65bbacked Tulane Green Wave54c22.97$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.4619332.1%62 W · 131 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4324…1390backed UAB Blazers56c22$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.326154.1%33 W · 28 L-0.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3ec…f645backed UAB Blazers73c21$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.33650%3 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0370…d000backed Tulane Green Wave70c20.14$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.0494036.9%347 W · 593 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7692…bcc9backed Tulane Green Wave69c18.84$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.84757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick69cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x234d…e8e1backed Tulane Green Wave68c17.68$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.68633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-39.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3abc…509cbacked Tulane Green Wave64c15.63$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.631050%5 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfacd…d470backed UAB Blazers74c15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.110464.4%67 W · 37 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.