TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Arkansas vs. Kansas

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Arkansasof Arkansas, Kansas
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$453,360
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$507,216

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $453,360 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4259…936fbacked Arkansas36c55,000$19,744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,255.553641.7%15 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-12.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a64…4430backed Kansas42c28,229$11,805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,805.1718850%94 W · 94 L+11.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-4.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Kansas65c26,788$17,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,324.532770.4%19 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…3e11backed Kansas46c24,075$11,189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,189.134134.1%14 W · 27 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-40.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x80a5…f9babacked Arkansas35c18,423$6,415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,007.728143.2%35 W · 46 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-21.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5314…910cbacked Arkansas40c7,664$3,062 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,602.6810335.9%37 W · 66 L-6.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-35.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa845…7bb6backed Kansas61c7,198$4,357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,356.84742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-22.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2bd…dce0backed Kansas64c7,054$4,517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,516.64831.3%15 W · 33 L-5.6wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-44.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Kansas65c5,850$3,803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,802.553057.4%304 W · 226 L+33.1wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+12.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x91b0…f0b6backed Arkansas45c5,119$2,304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,815.48728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-48.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6a3…fc02backed Kansas64c5,078$3,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,249.993351.5%17 W · 16 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c82…e0cbbacked Kansas40c5,033$1,991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9914052.5%21 W · 19 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick46cpaid-0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Kansas65c3,960$2,584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,583.899833.7%33 W · 65 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-28.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe932…0f05backed Kansas48c3,786$1,810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8103046.7%14 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-30.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Kansas67c3,296$2,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,195.4342948.5%208 W · 221 L-0.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd42f…047dbacked Arkansas36c2,414$862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,551.683215.6%5 W · 27 L-4.3wins-0.13per pick29cpaid-52.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x30ae…4318backed Kansas67c2,000$1,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3404761.7%29 W · 18 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Kansas61c2,000$1,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2207145.1%32 W · 39 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-13.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x727b…d1a2backed Arkansas45c1,956$872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,084.175527.3%15 W · 40 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-47.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Kansas13c1,701$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.31,54041.3%636 W · 904 L+4.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1752…7993backed Kansas52c1,499$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$779.71136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.16per pick20cpaid+127.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Kansas67c1,483$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00041554.2%225 W · 190 L-0.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Arkansas65c1,343$879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.523,90558.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L+165.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x24df…e8b2backed Arkansas33c1,297$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$870.6116842.3%71 W · 97 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x11fc…f8c4backed Kansas47c1,291$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.942227.3%6 W · 16 L-3.6wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-57.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xd37b…3802backed Arkansas34c1,002$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$659.891650%8 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+60.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Kansas64c999.99$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64039144.5%174 W · 217 L-16.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfba6…375cbacked Kansas64c975.88$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624.685054%27 W · 23 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-14.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x48e3…03ccbacked Arkansas47c851.06$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.06366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+20.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Kansas65c849.84$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.9955657.4%319 W · 237 L+20.3wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+3.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd71…d127backed Arkansas33c800$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5361100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+203%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93ca…d65ebacked Arkansas63c793.65$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.65450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7fea…8f74backed Kansas58c769.6$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.936842.6%29 W · 39 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-28%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Kansas65c616.05$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.436440.6%26 W · 38 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Kansas64c470$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.813936.7%51 W · 88 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad18…0b4fbacked Kansas56c467.32$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.712435.5%44 W · 80 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xed26…88a7backed Arkansas35c400$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick18cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf612…5700backed Kansas65c332.99$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.44250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+56.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc25…4d73backed Kansas27c329.17$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked Kansas56c328.45$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.294632.6%15 W · 31 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-35.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf442…ccf8backed Kansas30c304.17$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.251353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x755c…7741backed Arkansas33c302.98$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2032931%9 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Kansas66c300$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1985538.2%21 W · 34 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid+0.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6650…d38ebacked Arkansas34c294.11$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.118151.9%42 W · 39 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick46cpaid-1.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfaa2…93ccbacked Arkansas35c285.71$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.714035%14 W · 26 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa75a…8e0fbacked Kansas52c250$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2388…a491backed Arkansas26c232.64$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.651315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-48.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Kansas6c220$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7415442.9%66 W · 88 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x169e…de26backed Kansas66c212.12$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1403053.3%16 W · 14 L-4.2wins-0.14per pick67cpaid-23.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8c46…be29backed Arkansas36c208.33$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.332657.7%15 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf93…bdc8backed Arkansas58c207.91$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.916767.2%45 W · 22 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+11.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e95…d070backed Arkansas35c200$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131229.1%2 W · 20 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick3cpaid-43.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4116…779dbacked Arkansas69c200$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick30cpaid-36.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Kansas40c183.44$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.0660551.4%311 W · 294 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0078…bca0backed Arkansas35c173.11$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.113447.1%16 W · 18 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06e1…d431backed Kansas18c166.67$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301225%3 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-55.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8db6…da81backed Kansas63c158.73$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001752.9%9 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+23.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x70e7…4420backed Kansas67c156.19$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.211020%2 W · 8 L-3.5wins-0.35per pick55cpaid-65.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc3ec…e987backed Kansas68c148.01$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10019238.5%74 W · 118 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ccf…2fedbacked Kansas73c147.17$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.182250%11 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-29.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8507…8a79backed Arkansas34c147.06$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.061428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf70…d4a0backed Arkansas34c147.06$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd55c…34febacked Arkansas32c135.58$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.199751.5%50 W · 47 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f21…c6efbacked Kansas41c121.95$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Kansas63c118.49$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$757860.3%47 W · 31 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x11d7…52e1backed Kansas67c115.25$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.223652.8%19 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3be2…ac88backed Arkansas35c112.26$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.97728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-27.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b90…3d27backed Arkansas35c112.17$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.9117122.8%39 W · 132 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-27.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x53ed…7aeabacked Kansas52c107.27$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.7820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed Arkansas39c100$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Arkansas24c100$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$761363.7%5 W · 131 L-8.2wins-0.06per pick10cpaid-60.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5036…416bbacked Kansas64c100$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643354.5%18 W · 15 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ad1…cb3cbacked Kansas53c94.34$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-50.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c1d…c4c8backed Kansas39c91.42$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.651127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…63a3backed Kansas56c89.15$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-62.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e3d…bf10backed Kansas68c88.66$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601060%6 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b63…6c10backed Arkansas43c88.37$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.37333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.12per pick22cpaid-22.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7752…a524backed Arkansas49c79.59$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8495…df87backed Kansas62c77.3$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.293773%27 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick69cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5c5…227dbacked Arkansas26c76.92$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.922356.5%13 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Kansas67c74.63$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508463.1%53 W · 31 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x10b0…1c3dbacked Arkansas61c72.54$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.29520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-67.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0dc3…14dbbacked Arkansas45c66.67$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.67666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+34.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x635d…5025backed Arkansas33c65$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.552454.2%13 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2366…1078backed Kansas67c61.19$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4124759.5%147 W · 100 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02a1…3f08backed Arkansas34c58.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.822832.1%9 W · 19 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-21.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b69…7acdbacked Arkansas36c55.56$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.56250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+38.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Kansas63c54.05$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.051,39144.1%613 W · 778 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Kansas65c51.09$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.217912.7%10 W · 69 L-13.1wins-0.17per pick29cpaid-65.2%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Kansas66c50$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333132.3%10 W · 21 L-4.5wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-41.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xad9d…9b95backed Arkansas33c50$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.57454.1%40 W · 34 L+6.0wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeac7…fec6backed Kansas67c50$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.54856.3%27 W · 21 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1615…a6afbacked Arkansas36c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Arkansas34c40$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.65152.9%27 W · 24 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0359…953bbacked Kansas64c38.62$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa337…9e54backed Kansas67c37.31$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255160.8%31 W · 20 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cbe…fce9backed Kansas52c34.33$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.85120%0 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0af8…9454backed Kansas67c32.84$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210558.1%61 W · 44 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…5b14backed Kansas66c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.81030%3 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3dd8…5ddcbacked Kansas67c26.87$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.