Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 4.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x228dbe06c2d1f762ea3734d0f51bd4bb2b216ca1b77abd9968c76164eb2b5c81

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Apr 14, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $40,905
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $47,256

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,905 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Champions League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xbd16…d24dbacked Over	10c	6,223$599 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$598.5	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	-2.8wins	-0.13per pick	22cpaid	-79.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed Under	78c	4,497$3,507 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$989.82	77	37.7%29 W · 48 L	-8.6wins	-0.11per pick	49cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Over	26c	3,846$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$999.95	266	45.9%122 W · 144 L	+4.1wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	15c	3,342$513 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$513.34	1,994	43.9%875 W · 1,119 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x116c…e162backed Under	74c	2,896$2,142 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$753.75	82	43.9%36 W · 46 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x95ef…ff92backed Over	21c	2,080$429 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$429.42	16	0%0 W · 16 L	-3.5wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2358…8986backed Under	74c	1,782$1,317 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$464.57	10	80%8 W · 2 L	+1.5wins	+0.15per pick	65cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a89…8e52backed Under	74c	997.7$738 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$259.4	15	86.7%13 W · 2 L	+3.9wins	+0.26per pick	61cpaid	+27.5%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd411…7a18backed Over	4c	989.45$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.58	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	-1.2wins	-0.09per pick	30cpaid	-48.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x31d8…a9cebacked Over	27c	926.04$254 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$254.3	51	23.5%12 W · 39 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	28cpaid	+18.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over	26c	814.29$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$211.72	1,511	40.2%608 W · 903 L	-6.7wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-16%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8b98…d011backed Under	73c	599.96$437 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$162.85	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	-1.3wins	-0.09per pick	30cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x64ae…ead9backed Over	27c	568.34$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.45	111	35.1%39 W · 72 L	-6.1wins	-0.06per pick	41cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7509…b7c8backed Under	74c	532.11$394 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$138.35	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.15per pick	65cpaid	-32.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe802…e465backed Over	27c	478.1$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.09	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-3.3wins	-0.30per pick	49cpaid	-64.6%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over	22c	462.74$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.36	1,021	35.3%360 W · 661 L	-8.6wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Over	22c	434.39$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.57	108	52.8%57 W · 51 L	+4.0wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x13cd…0f88backed Under	74c	393.76$291 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102.38	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.14per pick	53cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b71…9fcdbacked Under	72c	353.39$254 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98.95	10	60%6 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	63cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Over	26c	306.41$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.67	650	50.2%326 W · 324 L	-12.0wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb94…7bc0backed Over	16c	300.04$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.43	25	52%13 W · 12 L	+2.7wins	+0.11per pick	41cpaid	+18%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over	26c	299.99$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78	432	52.3%226 W · 206 L	+3.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Under	74c	283.81$210 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.79	88	53.4%47 W · 41 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea3d…2e9dbacked Over	14c	278.83$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.04	14	50%7 W · 7 L	+1.2wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	+74.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb039…1177backed Under	77c	256.16$197 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.92	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	59cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Over	15c	221.64$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.41	424	38%161 W · 263 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Over	26c	212.93$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.36	291	38.1%111 W · 180 L	-4.5wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over	26c	206.4$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.66	607	48.4%294 W · 313 L	-1.4wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf009…19e9backed Over	29c	198.13$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.44	103	39.8%41 W · 62 L	+4.2wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9403…7361backed Over	27c	177.07$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.81	32	37.5%12 W · 20 L	+2.7wins	+0.09per pick	29cpaid	+25%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over	19c	167.88$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.28	170	53.5%91 W · 79 L	+9.8wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa93e…0a8cbacked Over	13c	160.54$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.55	26	69.2%18 W · 8 L	+4.2wins	+0.16per pick	53cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3248…8ba9backed Under	74c	159.63$118 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.5	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-2.1wins	-0.16per pick	62cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfdec…7ad6backed Over	27c	148.74$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.16	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4c1…6b32backed Under	74c	133.03$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.59	20	60%12 W · 8 L	+1.5wins	+0.08per pick	52cpaid	+33%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d16…4e1fbacked Under	74c	133.03$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.59	18	66.7%12 W · 6 L	+0.9wins	+0.05per pick	61cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4dd1…875fbacked Under	74c	133.03$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.59	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.15per pick	65cpaid	-32.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Over	19c	131$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.89	243	40.7%99 W · 144 L	+2.6wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3bc4…3619backed Over	29c	128.06$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.94	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.18per pick	52cpaid	-46%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Over	26c	123.99$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.24	158	47.5%75 W · 83 L	+7.4wins	+0.05per pick	43cpaid	+13.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd473…3febbacked Under	75c	113.89$85 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.71	69	59.4%41 W · 28 L	+2.0wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x811c…fd36backed Under	74c	106.42$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.67	29	41.4%12 W · 17 L	-4.2wins	-0.15per pick	56cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4f39…f8f2backed Over	27c	106.24$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.69	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xb07e…2b92backed Under	73c	101.08$74 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.29	5	100%5 W · 0 L	+1.9wins	+0.37per pick	63cpaid	+63.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd442…f946backed Under	74c	101.05$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.24	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.11per pick	51cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43bc…d3ddbacked Under	74c	98.44$73 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.59	4	75%3 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	76cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x22d8…b421backed Under	75c	92.06$69 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.11	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.9wins	+0.16per pick	51cpaid	+18.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd27d…a84fbacked Under	74c	90.56$67 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.55	29	41.4%12 W · 17 L	-1.6wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Under	74c	90.56$67 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.55	106	48.1%51 W · 55 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Under	74c	90.56$67 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.55	82	59.8%49 W · 33 L	+4.4wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Over	22c	90.45$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.9	92	62%57 W · 35 L	+9.7wins	+0.11per pick	51cpaid	+24.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7113…dba4backed Over	28c	85.43$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.92	214	43.9%94 W · 120 L	-3.5wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Under	74c	81.69$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.24	63	52.4%33 W · 30 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5d7e…fac0backed Under	74c	79.82$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.75	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.15per pick	65cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8e3…05e1backed Over	27c	70.83$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.12	39	59%23 W · 16 L	+4.3wins	+0.11per pick	48cpaid	+34.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6a2c…32bcbacked Under	74c	66.51$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.29	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x13b5…2c2cbacked Over	27c	62.85$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.22	54	50%27 W · 27 L	+3.4wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+17.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1430…a753backed Over	26c	60$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.6	39	30.8%12 W · 27 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x018a…5e65backed Under	73c	57.65$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.57	13	76.9%10 W · 3 L	+1.9wins	+0.15per pick	62cpaid	+26.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1a29…16c5backed Over	28c	51.26$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.35	69	50.7%35 W · 34 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	55cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c82…6150backed Over	27c	50$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	344	49.7%171 W · 173 L	-15.3wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b8f…4812backed Under	74c	46.56$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.11	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	69cpaid	-8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x95c0…f0c5backed Over	26c	43.77$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.38	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+1.6wins	+0.31per pick	29cpaid	+89.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd82f…aba0backed Under	72c	43.48$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.24	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+1.0wins	+0.11per pick	56cpaid	+16.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x66c0…229abacked Under	76c	41.5$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.96	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.24per pick	76cpaid	+31.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5b2…e004backed Under	74c	40.59$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.55	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	71cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5e10…1186backed Under	73c	40$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.8	14	50%7 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc9e…3a30backed Under	74c	39.91$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.38	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.8wins	+0.16per pick	44cpaid	+122.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7053…25e4backed Under	74c	39.91$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.38	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x84c3…6f21backed Under	73c	33.39$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.86	30	56.7%17 W · 13 L	+2.8wins	+0.09per pick	47cpaid	+63.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x69ee…6e35backed Under	72c	30.63$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.5	170	45.9%78 W · 92 L	-8.6wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xade2…8757backed Under	74c	29.88$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.77	30	40%12 W · 18 L	-2.9wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x35b8…898abacked Under	73c	26.95$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.28	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee0a…36d8backed Under	74c	26.61$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.92	5	60%3 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	62cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xade7…9d34backed Under	74c	19.69$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.12	99	53.5%53 W · 46 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 4.5this page
Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5Over won
Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5Under won
Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5Under won
Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5)Paris Saint-Germain FC won
Spread: Liverpool FC (-2.5)Paris Saint-Germain FC won
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)Paris Saint-Germain FC won
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5)Liverpool FC won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 4.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event