TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Falcons vs. Team Spirit

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Falconsof Team Falcons, Team Spirit
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$130,855
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$164,947

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $130,855 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xea0f…23b1backed Team Spirit18c52,616$9,244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,244.161827.8%5 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-16.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4047…7293backed Team Falcons71c23,964$16,973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,990.6116050.6%81 W · 79 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+17.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Team Falcons72c10,892$7,855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,036.9255751.7%288 W · 269 L+16.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4925…4f82backed Team Spirit29c8,365$2,426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,425.861957.9%11 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fe9…706abacked Team Spirit45c6,581$2,990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,990.0315852.5%83 W · 75 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6cd6…a1fcbacked Team Falcons58c3,471$2,018 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,452.91366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+28.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9a3…b1dfbacked Team Falcons71c3,450$2,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,000.510048%48 W · 52 L-0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b26…c9afbacked Team Falcons59c2,734$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,134.2914251.4%73 W · 69 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7116…b487backed Team Spirit39c2,659$1,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,038.083050%15 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Team Spirit42c2,461$1,034 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,033.7110941.3%45 W · 64 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Team Falcons67c2,250$1,515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$734.678845.5%40 W · 48 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1dbb…050cbacked Team Falcons59c1,962$1,158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$804.411346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick53cpaid+1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31ef…9a66backed Team Falcons58c1,721$998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$722.68666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x732b…3b02backed Team Spirit29c1,500$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4352740.7%11 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f2d…2b35backed Team Falcons58c1,495$867 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$628.1253652.6%282 W · 254 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e9e…d936backed Team Falcons63c1,083$682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.71450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3d0…5c32backed Team Spirit35c1,000$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3453023.3%7 W · 23 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-31.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcdd8…4bf1backed Team Spirit29c860.77$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501030%3 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.22per pick52cpaid-49.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x60e6…9e8abacked Team Spirit41c732.07$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.1570%0 W · 7 L-2.9wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x829f…3486backed Team Falcons58c724.17$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.155928.8%17 W · 42 L-6.2wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x84eb…869dbacked Team Spirit43c680$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.42835.7%10 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdff0…f573backed Team Spirit32c620.42$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2008150.6%41 W · 40 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb852…bfaebacked Team Spirit42c600$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.172729.6%8 W · 19 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-25.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Team Spirit9c567.14$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.526169.7%60 W · 556 L-2.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-53.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd053…3202backed Team Falcons58c545.4$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.987135.2%25 W · 46 L-6.1wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-22%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed Team Falcons73c515.2$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.122848.2%110 W · 118 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6beb…389fbacked Team Falcons58c509.99$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.191283.3%10 W · 2 L+3.1wins+0.26per pick58cpaid+40.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x07fa…f5cdbacked Team Spirit43c462.18$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20046240.7%188 W · 274 L+15.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x296f…1f8cbacked Team Spirit36c415.57$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-20.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x209e…8bb4backed Team Falcons56c372.48$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.0580544.6%359 W · 446 L-25.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e2d…722cbacked Team Falcons58c345.06$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.93633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-42%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8889…a9d1backed Team Spirit47c319.15$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15019743.1%85 W · 112 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x33a4…3f65backed Team Spirit26c300$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.01520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-65.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f7c…644fbacked Team Spirit35c284.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100825%2 W · 6 L-2.5wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-63%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Team Spirit43c284.18$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.5477941.1%320 W · 459 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2416…6e91backed Team Falcons53c263.74$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.0638653.9%208 W · 178 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x20bd…dff3backed Team Spirit38c260.16$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+20.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1aaa…0c04backed Team Spirit41c243.9$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020350.7%103 W · 100 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde2c…587bbacked Team Spirit41c243.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.95714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick38cpaid-72.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfffd…a1e5backed Team Spirit42c213.12$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.232030%6 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid+25.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c40…66a4backed Team Spirit49c204.38$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003339.4%13 W · 20 L-3.7wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-25.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Team Falcons58c200$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8417638.6%68 W · 108 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x68c3…ba20backed Team Spirit33c183.83$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.084047.5%19 W · 21 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+25.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x86df…7d27backed Team Spirit57c175.54$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006852.9%36 W · 32 L-0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86e0…c394backed Team Falcons63c170.9$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.7980742.6%344 W · 463 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1ba…c1b0backed Team Falcons58c168.88$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.93333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-42.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7ee…9597backed Team Spirit34c150$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6825…7114backed Team Spirit16c142.15$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b7c…5947backed Team Spirit20c126.55$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.311435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0b1…70edbacked Team Spirit20c126.1$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b98…7ecbbacked Team Spirit45c111.11$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe766…404dbacked Team Falcons56c110.99$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.832259.1%13 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6466…4633backed Team Spirit46c110.36$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-50.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked Team Spirit43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.57646.1%35 W · 41 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb89b…312dbacked Team Falcons57c95.69$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.691050%5 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-24.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xed58…81f3backed Team Falcons58c94.38$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.64944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-25.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef34…42eebacked Team Spirit44c93.02$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ec60backed Team Spirit43c91.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4012751.2%65 W · 62 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde4b…64cfbacked Team Falcons57c87.72$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.721540%6 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-30.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8d99…3d7dbacked Team Spirit23c82.61$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-44.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa25b…0151backed Team Spirit43c81$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.831050%5 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+15.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5159…d7aebacked Team Falcons53c79.77$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.491850%9 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x428b…4f48backed Team Spirit39c65.77$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.977455.4%41 W · 33 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c5a…5787backed Team Spirit42c56.79$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8580%0 W · 8 L-2.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe5a1…c0dabacked Team Falcons33c50$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.52429.2%7 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5815…ed3ebacked Team Spirit42c47.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-56.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fe9…e00ebacked Team Spirit30c46$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.81258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c52…e75fbacked Team Spirit44c45.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2013732.8%45 W · 92 L+8.0wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-15.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa664…ff67backed Team Spirit27c38.89$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77ad…be51backed Team Spirit28c38.56$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.71225%3 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-19.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb482…fbc7backed Team Falcons56c38.27$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.931040%4 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7514…49bebacked Team Falcons57c36.84$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.845669.6%39 W · 17 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick64cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3d17…b1fdbacked Team Falcons71c35.21$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.212466.7%16 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfcd…be40backed Team Falcons57c35.09$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.091643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0619…fe26backed Team Falcons57c35.09$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.092250%11 W · 11 L-2.9wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5ddd…6144backed Team Falcons58c34.48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.483360.6%20 W · 13 L+3.6wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+26.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x45e7…08ebbacked Team Spirit41c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.31127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-40%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb943…b538backed Team Falcons70c28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.491675%12 W · 4 L+3.3wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+35.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe3d8…289ebacked Team Spirit45c26.83$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.06540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-37.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd70f…78b4backed Team Falcons57c19.94$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.67250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1781…a0ecbacked Team Falcons73c14$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.82450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.