TailMyPicks

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Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Marquette Golden Eagles vs. Seton Hall Pirates

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Seton Hall Piratesof Marquette Golden Eagles, Seton Hall Pirates
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$60,626
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$70,966

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,626 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdb78…5206backed Seton Hall Pirates43c8,087$3,445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,642.192737%10 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Marquette Golden Eagles27c5,601$1,506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,506.2312,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bbc…f458backed Seton Hall Pirates68c4,234$2,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,334.241353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a61…b560backed Marquette Golden Eagles33c3,447$1,145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,144.798639.5%34 W · 52 L-5.5wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-33.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Marquette Golden Eagles44c2,794$1,216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,215.685,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7aa8…56dbbacked Marquette Golden Eagles45c2,470$1,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,105.071,05855.8%590 W · 468 L+34.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Marquette Golden Eagles10c2,128$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.422,01250%1,006 W · 1,006 L+22.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Seton Hall Pirates65c2,104$1,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$734.681,91049.6%947 W · 963 L+30.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f08…ed44backed Marquette Golden Eagles21c1,358$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.1846446.8%217 W · 247 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Marquette Golden Eagles2c1,297$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9544146.5%205 W · 236 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecc2…eeefbacked Seton Hall Pirates65c1,129$734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.997272.2%52 W · 20 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c64…348fbacked Marquette Golden Eagles2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20570%0 W · 57 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Seton Hall Pirates69c992.14$686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.373,38049.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L+30.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Seton Hall Pirates61c887.1$543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.65,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Marquette Golden Eagles31c880.89$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.842,04832.7%670 W · 1,378 L-16.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0370…d000backed Marquette Golden Eagles35c857.14$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30094036.9%347 W · 593 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Marquette Golden Eagles27c825$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.591,43647.5%682 W · 754 L-18.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5227…4279backed Marquette Golden Eagles23c770$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.1560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid-8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x119b…d112backed Marquette Golden Eagles23c760$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x71e8…bcc7backed Marquette Golden Eagles23c720$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.6540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-45.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ac0…b014backed Marquette Golden Eagles23c710$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.3520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-71.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Marquette Golden Eagles56c655.63$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.692,55541.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29d1…d768backed Marquette Golden Eagles23c640$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.2560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2c0…69d0backed Seton Hall Pirates50c576.63$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.636538.5%25 W · 40 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Marquette Golden Eagles53c516$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.554,38240.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L+23.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc3e…776bbacked Seton Hall Pirates40c500$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30016746.1%77 W · 90 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe622…ea5ebacked Seton Hall Pirates72c410$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.837142.6%158 W · 213 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Seton Hall Pirates62c392.34$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.81,49348.7%727 W · 766 L-1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-19.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Marquette Golden Eagles28c392.04$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.766844.1%30 W · 38 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-13.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5819…2e3bbacked Seton Hall Pirates77c390$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.72100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick60cpaid+84%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1592…bdf4backed Seton Hall Pirates77c390$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.73100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+123.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfb4c…9f09backed Seton Hall Pirates77c390$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.7785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick66cpaid+36.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x87c3…faf2backed Seton Hall Pirates77c380$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.4650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-28.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde73…d7d9backed Seton Hall Pirates77c370$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.13100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Marquette Golden Eagles36c364.51$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.8466831.4%210 W · 458 L-43.1wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-23%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe2e7…9de7backed Seton Hall Pirates77c360$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.83100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f74…63c5backed Seton Hall Pirates77c360$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.8450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-32.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae2b…b3b0backed Seton Hall Pirates77c360$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.83100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6643…bdddbacked Seton Hall Pirates77c350$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.53100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a74…de59backed Marquette Golden Eagles58c333$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.1411958.8%70 W · 49 L+8.3wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Marquette Golden Eagles28c328.94$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.397447.9%467 W · 507 L-2.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1d8…e7d2backed Seton Hall Pirates63c318.78$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.781764.7%11 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdb8…abbebacked Marquette Golden Eagles38c318.68$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.091,98326.4%523 W · 1,460 L-55.5wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ca…3748backed Seton Hall Pirates63c316.47$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.473542.9%15 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-25.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4b2…1c67backed Seton Hall Pirates75c266.33$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.7814354.5%78 W · 65 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d39…9b8dbacked Seton Hall Pirates77c250$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.5837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.18per pick55cpaid-47.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c16…4b37backed Marquette Golden Eagles47c247.39$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.2755840.3%225 W · 333 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Seton Hall Pirates59c239$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.991,53150.1%767 W · 764 L+34.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d84…6df0backed Marquette Golden Eagles35c227.6$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.3653646.5%249 W · 287 L-24.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-8.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ed1…caa2backed Seton Hall Pirates46c220$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.825325.3%64 W · 189 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Seton Hall Pirates71c200.76$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.991,98564.1%1,273 W · 712 L+144.2wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Marquette Golden Eagles26c192.51$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.281,63347.3%773 W · 860 L+25.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07dd…0876backed Seton Hall Pirates73c187$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.4923754.4%129 W · 108 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Seton Hall Pirates70c185.52$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.513,90558.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L+165.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb7a9…5d71backed Marquette Golden Eagles39c182.05$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7120%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Marquette Golden Eagles45c178.85$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.3499848.4%483 W · 515 L-8.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Seton Hall Pirates78c173.74$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.5649345.4%224 W · 269 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-15.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc091…3d42backed Seton Hall Pirates62c165.48$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.2772248.8%352 W · 370 L-23.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd107…add5backed Marquette Golden Eagles28c153.57$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431040%4 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68e0…a3a6backed Marquette Golden Eagles25c146$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.57244.4%32 W · 40 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-3.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a72…f81dbacked Seton Hall Pirates61c128.03$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.3987047.2%411 W · 459 L-23.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Seton Hall Pirates69c105$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.9993447.9%447 W · 487 L-19.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09d2…cc27backed Marquette Golden Eagles44c99.99$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4436845.7%168 W · 200 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa77a…e6f9backed Seton Hall Pirates54c80.3$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.941782.4%14 W · 3 L+3.2wins+0.19per pick64cpaid+34.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Seton Hall Pirates44c76.52$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.571,88745.2%853 W · 1,034 L+6.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf280…b65bbacked Marquette Golden Eagles31c75.17$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0119332.1%62 W · 131 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Seton Hall Pirates70c68$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.41,95145.1%880 W · 1,071 L-19.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6570…32ccbacked Marquette Golden Eagles63c63.9$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402839.3%11 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-26%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8c2…d3ddbacked Seton Hall Pirates74c50.69$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.182250%11 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xda16…6da2backed Seton Hall Pirates67c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.538345.4%174 W · 209 L-18.4wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Marquette Golden Eagles22c49.97$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.992,19433.4%733 W · 1,461 L+19.2wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe315…3911backed Marquette Golden Eagles28c48.31$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6721651.4%111 W · 105 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Marquette Golden Eagles23c46.84$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7816341.7%68 W · 95 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x085d…5302backed Marquette Golden Eagles60c45.92$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5513550.4%68 W · 67 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc869…8a6ebacked Marquette Golden Eagles51c45.82$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.37540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-33.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d2e…78b1backed Seton Hall Pirates45c44.44$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.441546.7%7 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fd5…ef85backed Seton Hall Pirates67c42.86$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.9725239.3%99 W · 153 L-0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Marquette Golden Eagles31c42.22$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.882,25442.2%951 W · 1,303 L+3.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Marquette Golden Eagles26c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.21,42043.9%623 W · 797 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2e1…57f1backed Seton Hall Pirates72c40$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.21457.1%8 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-18.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb780…e7a2backed Seton Hall Pirates75c35$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.751850%9 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebd1…1e86backed Marquette Golden Eagles36c30.53$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.991931.6%6 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e8f…1f83backed Seton Hall Pirates71c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.764658.8%380 W · 266 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid+1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbba…e95bbacked Seton Hall Pirates75c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.53969.2%27 W · 12 L+6.2wins+0.16per pick53cpaid+31.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc9d9…6febbacked Seton Hall Pirates75c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.53467.6%23 W · 11 L+4.1wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+27.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe2af…4e5bbacked Seton Hall Pirates60c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12933.3%3 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-22.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7789…d6c0backed Seton Hall Pirates73c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.19353.8%50 W · 43 L-5.5wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-3.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa55f…ce65backed Seton Hall Pirates45c27$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.852470.8%17 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick64cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc01…d914backed Seton Hall Pirates45c26.37$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.6212537.6%47 W · 78 L+0.6wins0.00per pick37cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59d8…643ebacked Seton Hall Pirates78c25.64$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.641190.9%10 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.17per pick74cpaid+25.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed Seton Hall Pirates67c25$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.319641.8%82 W · 114 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10a7…c0debacked Seton Hall Pirates72c24.87$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.874553.3%24 W · 21 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-5.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe92e…1e38backed Seton Hall Pirates77c24.58$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.653256.3%18 W · 14 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick65cpaid-13.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0f85…87d5backed Seton Hall Pirates73c23.32$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.33237.5%12 W · 20 L-5.2wins-0.16per pick54cpaid-28.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x00f6…c5d2backed Seton Hall Pirates75c18$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.52454.2%13 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3b3…0d89backed Seton Hall Pirates75c18$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.53164.5%20 W · 11 L+3.8wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+21.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfa46…1559backed Seton Hall Pirates75c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.753158.1%18 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.