NBA · resolved market
1H Spread: Lakers (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23f0f8e42a43895ae9fec703a962a0fc077731458668b29953962576bcb23688
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rocketsof Lakers, Rockets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,885
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,058
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,885 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Rockets | 49c | 2,098$1,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,069.05 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x021c…232fbacked Rockets | 54c | 2,000$1,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$930 | 120 | 56.7%68 W · 52 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40b4…1483backed Lakers | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 140 | 45.7%64 W · 76 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ff…9953backed Lakers | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 118 | 64.4%76 W · 42 L | +15.6wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Rockets | 48c | 716.35$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.5 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Lakers | 46c | 614.37$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.61 | 698 | 48.6%339 W · 359 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dc…586cbacked Lakers | 49c | 601.27$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.62 | 288 | 38.2%110 W · 178 L | -17.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…3933backed Lakers | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 170 | 47.6%81 W · 89 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fe…6a33backed Lakers | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Rockets | 49c | 125.86$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.35 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe619…6342backed Lakers | 50c | 100.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 228 | 44.7%102 W · 126 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce7a…fef0backed Lakers | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Rockets | 52c | 49.51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.91 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e8…82d1backed Lakers | 51c | 40.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Lakers | 36c | 32.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 620 | 47.3%293 W · 327 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Rockets | 48c | 30.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 186 | 53.2%99 W · 87 L | +9.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa1…24e7backed Lakers | 52c | 30.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Lakers | 39c | 30.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 237 | 41.4%98 W · 139 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc647…5e87backed Rockets | 54c | 28.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 56cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Rockets | 52c | 19.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 210 | 56.7%119 W · 91 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-2.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-1.5)Rockets won
- Amen Thompson: Points O/U 18.5No won
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- LeBron James: Points O/U 23.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Marcus Smart: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Marcus Smart: Points O/U 2.5Yes won
- Rockets vs. LakersRockets won
- Rockets vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineRockets won
- Rockets vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 100.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 206.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 207.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 208.5Under won
- Rui Hachimura: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Spread: Lakers (-2.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Lakers (-3.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Lakers (-4.5)Rockets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.