NBA · resolved market
LeBron James: Points O/U 23.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3cd7583e477021a8694058d662f2fe60be3573afec1fd5182ae91805810c7c17
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,802
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,994
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,802 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 47c | 269.57$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.7 | 560 | 50.4%282 W · 278 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…e0eebacked No | 57c | 250$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.5 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff8…8a76backed Yes | 43c | 238.44$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.91 | 137 | 51.1%70 W · 67 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf83b…44a2backed No | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 152 | 46.7%71 W · 81 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7987…884abacked Yes | 53c | 188.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.96 | 258 | 50%129 W · 129 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 46c | 185.19$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.19 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cd…7db3backed Yes | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a9…e573backed No | 48c | 101.87$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.88 | 123 | 47.2%58 W · 65 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked No | 49c | 59.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 269 | 57.2%154 W · 115 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x190e…e9c9backed Yes | 51c | 58.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +123.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed No | 40c | 56.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 796 | 50.9%405 W · 391 L | +63.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x07a9…398ebacked Yes | 60c | 56.08$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.43 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88a2…68a0backed Yes | 53c | 48.59$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 153 | 51%78 W · 75 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc566…f8d7backed No | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 165 | 47.3%78 W · 87 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Yes | 48c | 48.08$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 503 | 46.5%234 W · 269 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72a9…44d3backed Yes | 52c | 34.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 284 | 55.3%157 W · 127 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…99d4backed No | 58c | 31.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 256 | 57%146 W · 110 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 63c | 31.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 210 | 56.7%119 W · 91 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x110d…cd01backed Yes | 52c | 30.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 345 | 56.2%194 W · 151 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2baf…8023backed No | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 437 | 52.6%230 W · 207 L | +18.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x378a…a638backed Yes | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LeBron James: Points O/U 23.5this page
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-1.5)Rockets won
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-2.5)Rockets won
- Amen Thompson: Points O/U 18.5No won
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- LeBron James: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Marcus Smart: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Marcus Smart: Points O/U 2.5Yes won
- Rockets vs. LakersRockets won
- Rockets vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineRockets won
- Rockets vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 100.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 206.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 207.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 208.5Under won
- Rui Hachimura: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Spread: Lakers (-2.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Lakers (-3.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Lakers (-4.5)Rockets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.