NBA · resolved market
Rockets vs. Lakers: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3c41eb89d8a14651ca2130b5ab2c16346d077a2ccb06471e5b3c343b1e72519
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rocketsof Rockets, Lakers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,736
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,174
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,736 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56e4…e0dcbacked Lakers | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Rockets | 39c | 586.84$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.22 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbfa…79e7backed Lakers | 3c | 550$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3b…0230backed Rockets | 78c | 523.55$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.65 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9357…4c9bbacked Rockets | 43c | 438.26$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.26 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb31…7b95backed Rockets | 35c | 425.15$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.15 | 134 | 29.9%40 W · 94 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Lakers | 44c | 412.27$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.86 | 766 | 53.5%410 W · 356 L | +65.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Lakers | 37c | 338.51$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.26 | 313 | 45.7%143 W · 170 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00f8…2c23backed Lakers | 58c | 244.83$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…0635backed Lakers | 57c | 220$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.4 | 473 | 59.2%280 W · 193 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…dc80backed Lakers | 51c | 169.04$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.15 | 197 | 41.6%82 W · 115 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Lakers | 56c | 152.02$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.13 | 698 | 48.6%339 W · 359 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc064…6fa8backed Lakers | 60c | 148.61$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.63 | 152 | 48%73 W · 79 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41d5…686dbacked Lakers | 39c | 130.28$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.67 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde3d…6b1fbacked Rockets | 34c | 117.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.79 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0180…b8cdbacked Lakers | 58c | 103.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 265 | 45.3%120 W · 145 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1155…2315backed Lakers | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 221 | 70.6%156 W · 65 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Rockets | 49c | 99.41$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.27 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Rockets | 55c | 79.43$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.74 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Lakers | 23c | 76.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 522 | 30.3%158 W · 364 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Rockets | 53c | 61.4$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 616 | 38.5%237 W · 379 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbd…a3a4backed Rockets | 42c | 58.09$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.59 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Lakers | 64c | 57$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 1,170 | 50.3%588 W · 582 L | +46.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Lakers | 58c | 49.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Lakers | 38c | 42.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -7.8wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Lakers | 56c | 40.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 168 | 67.3%113 W · 55 L | +13.8wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x07ed…041bbacked Lakers | 38c | 36.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Lakers | 59c | 36.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b5…b6c8backed Rockets | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 116 | 53.4%62 W · 54 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +26%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Lakers | 37c | 32.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +8.2wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x85cd…e1a8backed Lakers | 58c | 31.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Lakers | 45c | 30.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 237 | 41.4%98 W · 139 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Rockets | 39c | 29.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 269 | 57.2%154 W · 115 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x996c…4055backed Lakers | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Rockets | 67c | 22.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 142 | 64.8%92 W · 50 L | +9.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe127…82a2backed Rockets | 55c | 20.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Rockets | 52c | 20.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 326 | 54.6%178 W · 148 L | +22.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x337e…a581backed Lakers | 74c | 17.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Lakers | 67c | 14.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 210 | 56.7%119 W · 91 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40e1…65a4backed Rockets | 75c | 14.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rockets vs. Lakers: 1H Moneylinethis page
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-1.5)Rockets won
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-2.5)Rockets won
- Amen Thompson: Points O/U 18.5No won
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- LeBron James: Points O/U 23.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Marcus Smart: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Marcus Smart: Points O/U 2.5Yes won
- Rockets vs. LakersRockets won
- Rockets vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 100.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 206.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 207.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 208.5Under won
- Rui Hachimura: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Spread: Lakers (-2.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Lakers (-3.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Lakers (-4.5)Rockets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.