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NBA · resolved market

Marcus Smart: Assists O/U 4.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,359
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,278

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,359 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbd38…99d4backed Yes54c1,793$977 inLost-$97725657%146 W · 110 L+9.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x72d7…1b97backed Yes51c722.89$372 inLost-$37222036.8%81 W · 139 L+0.9wins0.00per pick36cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe768…b331backed Yes49c631$311 inLost-$31139864.3%256 W · 142 L+33.7wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+12.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed No51c596$302 inWon+$29490863.9%580 W · 328 L+80.6wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+20.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed No51c498.92$253 inWon+$245.9625840.7%105 W · 153 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed No42c452.32$190 inWon+$262.3579650.9%405 W · 391 L+63.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9fbd…3d15backed No50c294.36$147 inWon+$147.1876247.1%359 W · 403 L+2.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed No46c281.88$129 inWon+$152.743,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed No51c249.99$127 inWon+$122.556050.4%282 W · 278 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ff8…8a76backed Yes40c241.11$96 inLost-$96.4413751.1%70 W · 67 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked No52c200.86$105 inWon+$95.4876054.6%415 W · 345 L+56.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+33.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf83b…44a2backed Yes48c200$96 inLost-$9615246.7%71 W · 81 L+0.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed No43c195.35$84 inWon+$111.3513850%69 W · 69 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7196…08d3backed Yes42c117.88$50 inLost-$501838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdaf1…4ae9backed Yes44c113.23$50 inLost-$49.62850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f64…ba01backed Yes48c102$49 inLost-$48.9642740.3%172 W · 255 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x70c1…6701backed No43c100$43 inWon+$572934.5%10 W · 19 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa4d3…4b1fbacked Yes44c88.27$39 inLost-$38.847751.9%40 W · 37 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6553…aa3cbacked No54c73.92$40 inWon+$33.929046.7%42 W · 48 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xca7c…e994backed No49c73.75$36 inWon+$37.6119352.8%102 W · 91 L+11.7wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7f39…28dabacked Yes48c60.42$29 inLost-$2911347.8%54 W · 59 L-5.0wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed Yes42c60$25 inLost-$25.220558.5%120 W · 85 L+19.6wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+26.3%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x2baf…8023backed No51c60$31 inWon+$29.443752.6%230 W · 207 L+18.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe7c0…24eebacked No57c52.69$30 inWon+$22.668451.2%43 W · 41 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Yes40c50$20 inLost-$2018653.2%99 W · 87 L+9.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+16.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xde74…77abbacked No42c50$21 inWon+$2912642.9%54 W · 72 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb684…343cbacked No60c49.93$30 inWon+$19.7621056.7%119 W · 91 L-0.5wins0.00per pick57cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fb1…0073backed Yes42c47.62$20 inLost-$2014953%79 W · 70 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0c5…4291backed No57c46.98$27 inWon+$20.496956.3%546 W · 423 L+26.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1815…e217backed Yes55c42.46$23 inLost-$23.488855.7%49 W · 39 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed No54c37.04$20 inWon+$17.0466046.8%309 W · 351 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…ba2cbacked No49c30.42$15 inWon+$15.5326957.2%154 W · 115 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd24…9a71backed No52c28.85$15 inWon+$13.85366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+24.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x764d…96aebacked Yes42c25.66$11 inLost-$10.784341.9%18 W · 25 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9422…f273backed No54c22.89$12 inWon+$10.5319555.4%108 W · 87 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ed…db3dbacked No59c20.34$12 inWon+$8.343158.1%18 W · 13 L+3.0wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.