NBA · resolved market
Amen Thompson: Points O/U 18.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58dee2a1bbeab97d6e04aac6b59290170531842ac32f923cbb2e77af35eee77c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $585
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $593
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $585 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 51c | 199.49$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.09 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 48c | 125.58$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.3 | 560 | 50.4%282 W · 278 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cef…9d08backed No | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6163…d4d7backed Yes | 54c | 98.43$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked No | 46c | 83.43$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.05 | 854 | 49.4%422 W · 432 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc566…f8d7backed Yes | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 165 | 47.3%78 W · 87 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…aa3cbacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e53…922dbacked Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 64c | 31.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 210 | 56.7%119 W · 91 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Yes | 36c | 31.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 46c | 27.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb551…a2f3backed Yes | 54c | 27.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6683…f5f4backed No | 49c | 27.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 146 | 49.3%72 W · 74 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked No | 48c | 24.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 269 | 57.2%154 W · 115 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Amen Thompson: Points O/U 18.5this page
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-1.5)Rockets won
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-2.5)Rockets won
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- LeBron James: Points O/U 23.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Marcus Smart: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Marcus Smart: Points O/U 2.5Yes won
- Rockets vs. LakersRockets won
- Rockets vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineRockets won
- Rockets vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 100.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 206.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 207.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 208.5Under won
- Rui Hachimura: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Spread: Lakers (-2.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Lakers (-3.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Lakers (-4.5)Rockets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.