Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on May 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x24678844a4883385a5e0774be468713e966787af084a8d7d3ee4ad097088b8c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,579
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,193
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,579 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6688…fdcebacked No | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 11c | 282.8$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.89 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 27c | 270.09$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.15 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Yes | 48c | 249.99$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.99 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 38c | 186.26$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.38 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3609…3a0bbacked Yes | 79c | 160.72$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 63c | 159.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.09 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 46c | 134.56$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.51 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed No | 52c | 130.39$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes | 55c | 116.8$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.72 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9898…0a7dbacked Yes | 42c | 110.89$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.82 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 65c | 107.79$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.46 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 42c | 106.88$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.88 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 36c | 106.65$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.59 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95ba…089fbacked Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 49cpaid | +106.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 53c | 99.98$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.99 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 61c | 96.39$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.33 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 47c | 84.15$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.45 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 37c | 83.88$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.72 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…6768backed Yes | 49c | 83$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed Yes | 49c | 74.92$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.21 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6410…ee60backed Yes | 48c | 73.06$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.99 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -39%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 52c | 67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.67 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked Yes | 45c | 66.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.48 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 62.58$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.03 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ab…8e21backed No | 62c | 56.32$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.86 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 71cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d2…ff97backed Yes | 47c | 55.53$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.53 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 56c | 55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c000backed Yes | 38c | 52.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.67 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…4d6bbacked No | 60c | 50.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 168 | 63.1%106 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab5e…47f6backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77d1…6d42backed Yes | 49c | 49.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 49c | 49.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a6…ff0bbacked Yes | 34c | 49.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.05 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 54c | 47.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 43c | 46.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 44c | 45.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 55c | 44.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x237b…9f36backed No | 60c | 44.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb89b…1a22backed Yes | 68c | 43.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 97 | 83.5%81 W · 16 L | +26.5wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x4a41…35fcbacked Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 42c | 39.72$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.07 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53b7…45e5backed Yes | 36c | 37.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +325.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 43c | 36.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7082…3a10backed Yes | 33c | 35.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.11 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 55c | 35.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 35.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd10…99b9backed No | 56c | 32.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 51c | 30.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…8202backed Yes | 44c | 30.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 48c | 30.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 40c | 30.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 54c | 29.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…c2eabacked No | 56c | 28.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed No | 70c | 28.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3288…b8cebacked No | 58c | 28.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 69c | 26.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked No | 57c | 26.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…70b1backed Yes | 48c | 26.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b98…c0cebacked Yes | 49c | 25.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2be9…446ebacked Yes | 45c | 25.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x796a…e815backed Yes | 44c | 24.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 51c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 61c | 23.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 44c | 22.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 50c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ed…159ebacked Yes | 50c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94c0…a805backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed No | 76c | 13.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on May 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.