TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Villanova Wildcats vs. Connecticut Huskies

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Connecticut Huskiesof Villanova Wildcats, Connecticut Huskies
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$83,841
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$94,306

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,841 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x507e…beaebacked Villanova Wildcats34c5,856$2,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,013.685,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38c2…d3a7backed Connecticut Huskies71c4,237$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,236.8416056.9%91 W · 69 L+0.6wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Villanova Wildcats19c3,173$603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602.8535452.3%185 W · 169 L+17.5wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Villanova Wildcats19c2,632$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5004,38240.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L+23.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71a5…c3eabacked Connecticut Huskies71c2,430$1,726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$703.351181.8%9 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.16per pick66cpaid+30%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Villanova Wildcats26c2,288$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.751,54041.3%636 W · 904 L+4.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Villanova Wildcats26c2,033$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530.492,04832.7%670 W · 1,378 L-16.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6ec…81c2backed Villanova Wildcats29c1,981$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580.458817%15 W · 73 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-30.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Villanova Wildcats14c1,410$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.42,68748.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L+4.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Villanova Wildcats35c1,354$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.355,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Connecticut Huskies62c1,176$726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450.41,49348.7%727 W · 766 L-1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-19.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f19…ec51backed Connecticut Huskies72c1,012$729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.322050.5%111 W · 109 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x871e…6566backed Connecticut Huskies68c1,000$676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.734858.3%28 W · 20 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c64…348fbacked Villanova Wildcats2c999.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20570%0 W · 57 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x685d…22d6backed Connecticut Huskies74c932.43$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.439144%40 W · 51 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ef4…ff55backed Villanova Wildcats34c880.54$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-33.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x634f…25bfbacked Villanova Wildcats30c811.77$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.13450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+13.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ff2…49febacked Villanova Wildcats40c800.63$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3206428.1%18 W · 46 L-5.4wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-29%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6dca…a7acbacked Connecticut Huskies71c792.56$565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.3425254.8%138 W · 114 L-15.7wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-16.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Connecticut Huskies75c743.74$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.042,01250%1,006 W · 1,006 L+22.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x958a…c897backed Villanova Wildcats36c700.21$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25023331.3%73 W · 160 L+0.9wins0.00per pick31cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00e0…8a94backed Villanova Wildcats16c694.29$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.1323028.3%65 W · 165 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd162…0d24backed Villanova Wildcats34c693.96$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.051323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-31.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7239…89ccbacked Villanova Wildcats35c624.43$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.47825%2 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-48.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Connecticut Huskies64c545.33$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.141,91049.6%947 W · 963 L+30.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59cf…71dabacked Villanova Wildcats25c520$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.81822.2%4 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick24cpaid+45.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Villanova Wildcats35c509.47$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.872,00353.7%1,076 W · 927 L+101.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8013…5b52backed Connecticut Huskies70c508.78$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.9415453.9%83 W · 71 L+16.8wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+19.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3a8e…b505backed Connecticut Huskies78c508.71$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.8848051%245 W · 235 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Connecticut Huskies74c503.99$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.221,95145.1%880 W · 1,071 L-19.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdfb…980cbacked Villanova Wildcats38c460.87$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.132152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Villanova Wildcats31c420.2$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.0366831.4%210 W · 458 L-43.1wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-23%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x19a0…ac39backed Connecticut Huskies49c405.1$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.4218654.3%101 W · 85 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc091…3d42backed Connecticut Huskies65c357.47$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.2472248.8%352 W · 370 L-23.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f19…f012backed Villanova Wildcats43c351.6$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.194652.2%24 W · 22 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-13.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc383…c054backed Connecticut Huskies80c322.23$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.1619057.4%109 W · 81 L-10.0wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2816…6ad7backed Villanova Wildcats32c300$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$969257.6%53 W · 39 L+8.1wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+20.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x62d6…479dbacked Villanova Wildcats33c290.91$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.8633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+116.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x67a8…1f1ebacked Villanova Wildcats24c247.09$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603946.2%18 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7f7…2abfbacked Villanova Wildcats15c236.39$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4652928.4%150 W · 379 L-9.2wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-10.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Connecticut Huskies48c211.27$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.411,53150.1%767 W · 764 L+34.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Connecticut Huskies68c207.97$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.292,55541.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf280…b65bbacked Villanova Wildcats22c205.79$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.7419332.1%62 W · 131 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x497a…650fbacked Villanova Wildcats31c202.42$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.55339.6%21 W · 32 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e44…94fabacked Connecticut Huskies54c200$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$921030%3 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid+16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3ec…e987backed Villanova Wildcats23c180$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.419238.5%74 W · 118 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa097…fba7backed Connecticut Huskies59c178.2$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.069148.4%44 W · 47 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03b0…482cbacked Connecticut Huskies73c177.99$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.994860.4%29 W · 19 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43b3…6193backed Connecticut Huskies63c160$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.62060%12 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Villanova Wildcats36c158.31$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.993,68442.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L+32.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f3d…fadabacked Villanova Wildcats26c154.96$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402532%8 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-31.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x47cb…dfdabacked Connecticut Huskies59c153.28$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.2136535.9%131 W · 234 L+1.4wins0.00per pick36cpaid-18.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x892f…820ebacked Villanova Wildcats33c152.6$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501625%4 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ffb…e82abacked Connecticut Huskies74c142.02$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.9343450%217 W · 217 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0dc…f68fbacked Connecticut Huskies78c140$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.81338.5%5 W · 8 L-4.2wins-0.32per pick71cpaid-51.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xc7d3…0abbbacked Villanova Wildcats44c136.36$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-65.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcaf8…3397backed Villanova Wildcats15c128.65$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.81844.4%8 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick33cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed Villanova Wildcats16c125$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2025436.6%93 W · 161 L-13.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-8.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x62f9…ae42backed Villanova Wildcats40c125$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506550.8%33 W · 32 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Connecticut Huskies68c119.98$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.011,98564.1%1,273 W · 712 L+144.2wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0370…d000backed Villanova Wildcats41c116.55$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.6494036.9%347 W · 593 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b90…3d27backed Connecticut Huskies71c108.04$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.4917122.8%39 W · 132 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-27.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdec2…b015backed Villanova Wildcats16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1660%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8791…4c9abacked Villanova Wildcats20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2021443.9%94 W · 120 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7e…f17dbacked Villanova Wildcats15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154316.3%7 W · 36 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83d0…c927backed Connecticut Huskies64c93.75$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.751442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-23.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2c0…69d0backed Villanova Wildcats30c93.33$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286538.5%25 W · 40 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdafd…807fbacked Villanova Wildcats46c86.62$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401323.1%3 W · 10 L-4.0wins-0.30per pick54cpaid-60.1%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xdba1…a62bbacked Connecticut Huskies69c80.11$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc688…5987backed Villanova Wildcats19c70.1$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0129442.9%126 W · 168 L-11.0wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe64b…eeefbacked Connecticut Huskies78c64.1$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.1366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid-8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Villanova Wildcats44c63$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5499848.4%483 W · 515 L-8.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8d9…25f6backed Villanova Wildcats16c62.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf33…ab3ebacked Connecticut Huskies64c62.12$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.12742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick62cpaid-34.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4bc…963cbacked Connecticut Huskies76c61$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.775869%40 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick71cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd08…84b0backed Villanova Wildcats46c59.8$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5129954.2%162 W · 137 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfed9…3cdebacked Villanova Wildcats24c55.67$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.366556.9%37 W · 28 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe30e…4eedbacked Villanova Wildcats20c53.39$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.638518.8%16 W · 69 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-16.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcdf6…d7f7backed Connecticut Huskies76c51.5$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.365552.7%29 W · 26 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5960…d692backed Villanova Wildcats20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103360.6%20 W · 13 L+5.3wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+25.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Connecticut Huskies63c47.52$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.797447.9%467 W · 507 L-2.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbcb8…3058backed Connecticut Huskies70c45.74$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.721782.4%14 W · 3 L+2.8wins+0.16per pick66cpaid+36.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Villanova Wildcats37c41.29$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2817943.6%78 W · 101 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b1f…4eebbacked Connecticut Huskies68c40$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.813147.3%62 W · 69 L-9.0wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-13.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x39dc…fc23backed Connecticut Huskies74c39.64$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.3827358.6%160 W · 113 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x37ea…6cb9backed Connecticut Huskies69c38.43$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.92560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe12…93aebacked Connecticut Huskies53c34.58$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.232458.3%14 W · 10 L-0.1wins0.00per pick59cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb441…89a1backed Connecticut Huskies65c30.77$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74e2…89a5backed Connecticut Huskies68c28.02$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.91050%5 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xade9…6f2abacked Connecticut Huskies74c27.03$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.03475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x920b…c3d4backed Connecticut Huskies73c27$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.292100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Connecticut Huskies72c25.03$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.963,90558.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L+165.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa67f…a90fbacked Connecticut Huskies58c20.08$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.362100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+51.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x13ff…2506backed Connecticut Huskies77c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.6785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick69cpaid+29.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb1cb…fb77backed Connecticut Huskies64c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.210252%53 W · 49 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc262…6587backed Connecticut Huskies69c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.3560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa89…d3cfbacked Connecticut Huskies65c17.61$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.16875%6 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x78f8…3fa1backed Connecticut Huskies74c16.91$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.38633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-43.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.