Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: OG vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2523edfe1809a240e92c662a821f803dea3c22d21c245842fc3db42170092e6f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Liquidof OG, Team Liquid
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,384
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,982
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,384 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0dcf…c556backed OG | 47c | 26,214$12,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,444.19 | 337 | 46.3%156 W · 181 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked Team Liquid | 52c | 20,835$10,834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,000.8 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x491d…f42bbacked Team Liquid | 58c | 6,309$3,659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,649.78 | 396 | 60.1%238 W · 158 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb328…4df1backed Team Liquid | 56c | 4,103$2,284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,819.61 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4605…5299backed OG | 22c | 3,007$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.2 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1768…e91fbacked Team Liquid | 79c | 2,687$2,122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.15 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed OG | 46c | 2,513$1,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,154.5 | 569 | 48.7%277 W · 292 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed OG | 41c | 1,649$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.76 | 328 | 54.9%180 W · 148 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked OG | 34c | 1,528$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.85 | 1,823 | 45.1%822 W · 1,001 L | +34.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked OG | 36c | 1,527$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.5 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Team Liquid | 64c | 1,250$798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.77 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…5df2backed Team Liquid | 63c | 999.98$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.99 | 95 | 57.9%55 W · 40 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe375…dadfbacked Team Liquid | 54c | 923.67$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.89 | 129 | 48.1%62 W · 67 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa97f…a818backed OG | 46c | 923.67$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.89 | 587 | 44%258 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…1c68backed Team Liquid | 62c | 805.58$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.58 | 641 | 49.9%320 W · 321 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked OG | 21c | 752.04$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.59 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x249f…fed3backed OG | 46c | 653.5$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.61 | 626 | 50.5%316 W · 310 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Team Liquid | 66c | 610.97$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.58 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed OG | 40c | 603.05$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.48 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad6…a93cbacked Team Liquid | 61c | 567.19$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.69 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked Team Liquid | 56c | 500$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0a…320abacked OG | 21c | 437.19$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.72 | 921 | 56.5%520 W · 401 L | +78.5wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked OG | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 552 | 51.6%285 W · 267 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf828…00a5backed Team Liquid | 57c | 352.35$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.51 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf7d…0b89backed OG | 49c | 347.12$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -4.0wins | -0.40per pick | 50cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed OG | 48c | 318.75$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f9…bff5backed OG | 36c | 308.83$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.47 | 209 | 49.3%103 W · 106 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc5…7b98backed OG | 46c | 217.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94f1…b9e7backed OG | 38c | 196.38$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.99 | 459 | 51.9%238 W · 221 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58f1…7032backed OG | 41c | 174.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.75 | 295 | 50.2%148 W · 147 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20b2…f114backed Team Liquid | 76c | 131.13$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.98 | 151 | 31.8%48 W · 103 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked Team Liquid | 53c | 124.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.3 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…1b0abacked Team Liquid | 59c | 110.56$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.33 | 149 | 65.8%98 W · 51 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31b5…6128backed Team Liquid | 73c | 107.18$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 180 | 75%135 W · 45 L | +18.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…4ab2backed OG | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2608…34c1backed OG | 48c | 104.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…49e6backed OG | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 721 | 54%389 W · 332 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45c5…2a38backed Team Liquid | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Team Liquid | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed OG | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff5e…9c6ebacked OG | 28c | 80.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed OG | 48c | 77.6$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.25 | 336 | 45.5%153 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed OG | 44c | 74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.72 | 144 | 53.5%77 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2760…ef06backed Team Liquid | 77c | 71.68$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 107 | 59.8%64 W · 43 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Liquid | 52c | 68.28$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.69 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Team Liquid | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 198 | 56.1%111 W · 87 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3260…85ddbacked OG | 42c | 59.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +7.9wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed OG | 35c | 51.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x02d7…0c39backed OG | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 205 | 30.7%63 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d75…1af0backed Team Liquid | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.24per pick | 53cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1532…1dadbacked OG | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 226 | 54.4%123 W · 103 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed OG | 44c | 49.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc8…d266backed OG | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -7.6wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc647…2f03backed OG | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5502…d440backed Team Liquid | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 454 | 57.5%261 W · 193 L | +39.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +14%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe575…b86dbacked OG | 47c | 36.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b33…c931backed Team Liquid | 56c | 35.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f3…12a9backed OG | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 117 | 39.3%46 W · 71 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x209f…0eb4backed Team Liquid | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a61…02d2backed Team Liquid | 56c | 32.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6976…3185backed OG | 33c | 31.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf82…6c06backed OG | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 59 | 27.1%16 W · 43 L | -6.5wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b31…470bbacked Team Liquid | 68c | 29.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ff…dd8bbacked Team Liquid | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.23per pick | 59cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed OG | 44c | 26.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a38…fee0backed Team Liquid | 57c | 26.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 603 | 49.9%301 W · 302 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…bd5abacked Team Liquid | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 468 | 72.2%338 W · 130 L | +36.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x63ec…3b5bbacked Team Liquid | 63c | 25.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd00a…7400backed Team Liquid | 77c | 20.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac4…d6a4backed Team Liquid | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +5.1wins | +0.20per pick | 56cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…3161backed OG | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10ad…827cbacked Team Liquid | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb41c…892cbacked Team Liquid | 57c | 17.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: OG vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: OG vs Team Liquid (BO5) - BLAST Slam PlayoffsTeam Liquid won
- Dota 2: OG vs Team Liquid - Game 2 WinnerTeam Liquid won
- Dota 2: OG vs Team Liquid - Game 3 WinnerTeam Liquid won
- Game Handicap: Liquid (-1.5) vs OG (+1.5)Team Liquid won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.