Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Heroic - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2558c090c57e8d648553e015624b52465bf96810fbb9071ec8bca4b1c57f3658
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Spiritof Team Spirit, Heroic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $129,659
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $164,077
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $129,659 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa925…e1c8backed Team Spirit | 71c | 22,357$15,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,556.94 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cdb…4d30backed Heroic | 32c | 17,732$5,654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,654.48 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +7.2wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x85d9…717bbacked Heroic | 29c | 12,000$3,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,480 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3719…2df0backed Heroic | 40c | 11,661$4,669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,668.67 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac0d…b006backed Team Spirit | 58c | 9,253$5,330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,922.46 | 106 | 61.3%65 W · 41 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe9…706abacked Team Spirit | 72c | 8,290$5,971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,318.46 | 158 | 52.5%83 W · 75 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Heroic | 27c | 6,925$1,852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,852.13 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Heroic | 1c | 5,080$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.64 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Team Spirit | 66c | 3,215$2,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,078.86 | 610 | 57.9%353 W · 257 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b48…4705backed Heroic | 30c | 2,450$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.38 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +30%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1946…e255backed Heroic | 35c | 2,274$796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795.9 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Heroic | 30c | 2,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.74 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…5695backed Heroic | 4c | 2,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 190 | 47.9%91 W · 99 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed Heroic | 26c | 1,700$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.62 | 179 | 50.3%90 W · 89 L | +14.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd470…783ebacked Heroic | 28c | 1,667$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…6ac6backed Team Spirit | 65c | 1,277$830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.9 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf3…1bb5backed Heroic | 36c | 1,275$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.26 | 283 | 41%116 W · 167 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe612…abc9backed Heroic | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0c3dbacked Team Spirit | 60c | 1,137$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.39 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Heroic | 30c | 1,135$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.31 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Heroic | 35c | 1,022$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.96 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Heroic | 11c | 979.95$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.69 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4635…9f6fbacked Team Spirit | 66c | 977.49$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.35 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked Team Spirit | 70c | 935.32$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.46 | 192 | 46.4%89 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcb…b05abacked Heroic | 7c | 858.96$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.77 | 380 | 49.2%187 W · 193 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +168.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffc…8967backed Heroic | 7c | 763.67$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.79 | 220 | 33.6%74 W · 146 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Team Spirit | 70c | 714.29$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.29 | 234 | 65%152 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2d…2b35backed Heroic | 41c | 699.99$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287 | 536 | 52.6%282 W · 254 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed Heroic | 33c | 617.07$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.49 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8e…b232backed Team Spirit | 58c | 600$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.23per pick | 59cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Heroic | 26c | 588$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.88 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a7…0795backed Team Spirit | 59c | 555$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.55 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d60…be72backed Heroic | 22c | 514.19$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 199 | 49.2%98 W · 101 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe4…706bbacked Heroic | 6c | 405.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc8…21f0backed Heroic | 6c | 394.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33f1…f95fbacked Team Spirit | 67c | 360.81$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.07 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Heroic | 31c | 349.22$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.26 | 109 | 41.3%45 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a37…869bbacked Team Spirit | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.98 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7c…b7dbbacked Heroic | 35c | 320.11$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.04 | 179 | 46.9%84 W · 95 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb719…dacbbacked Heroic | 35c | 313$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.9 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…7aa5backed Heroic | 14c | 292.34$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.73 | 451 | 39.2%177 W · 274 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Heroic | 7c | 254.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaac2…df3abacked Heroic | 19c | 253.14$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.93 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed Team Spirit | 61c | 245.9$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.9 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1448…9b9cbacked Heroic | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 132 | 62.9%83 W · 49 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f04…5fc4backed Heroic | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 315 | 45.4%143 W · 172 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ac…63bcbacked Heroic | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd855…c823backed Team Spirit | 69c | 232.29$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.29 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcf…48e1backed Team Spirit | 57c | 199.99$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…c336backed Team Spirit | 70c | 165.06$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.32 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x197b…7477backed Heroic | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked Team Spirit | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 87 | 51.7%45 W · 42 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b6…1765backed Heroic | 10c | 140$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…e0d7backed Team Spirit | 66c | 131.82$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.82 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa188…3fccbacked Team Spirit | 74c | 126.19$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.21 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Team Spirit | 79c | 125.5$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 198 | 56.1%111 W · 87 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd08b…daa9backed Heroic | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4a…4e5ebacked Heroic | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…67c5backed Heroic | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 140 | 39.3%55 W · 85 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcca…64f6backed Heroic | 33c | 106.06$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x091e…3432backed Heroic | 43c | 100.3$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.13 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1351…bebcbacked Team Spirit | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked Team Spirit | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Heroic | 16c | 90$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…33acbacked Team Spirit | 60c | 84.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.19 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb358…122cbacked Team Spirit | 66c | 77.53$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.36 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -10.2wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x98d7…95d4backed Heroic | 25c | 77.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…598dbacked Heroic | 38c | 65.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 52cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x047a…941ebacked Heroic | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 236 | 40.7%96 W · 140 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcb…7089backed Heroic | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe89c…0220backed Team Spirit | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd352…07a6backed Team Spirit | 62c | 32.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…7272backed Team Spirit | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Heroic - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Heroic (BO3)Team Spirit won
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Heroic - Game 2 WinnerTeam Spirit won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.