La Liga · resolved market
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Valencia CF: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x280c34dfd9e163e805f0e5b4b5f8dacb0dfb5737d288a1fb91d526ea26ff9dbd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,612
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,711
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,612 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c16…09cbbacked Over | 20c | 18,950$3,790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,160.2 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 22c | 14,101$3,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,011.21 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 19c | 9,321$1,812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,508.65 | 908 | 43.6%396 W · 512 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 18c | 5,256$949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,306.64 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 20c | 1,500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200 | 387 | 29.5%114 W · 273 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 49c | 641.04$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.93 | 304 | 46.7%142 W · 162 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.78 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 25c | 399.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.9 | 317 | 45.7%145 W · 172 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55f5…01b0backed Under | 79c | 340$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe02a…8e83backed Over | 18c | 340$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.36 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +125.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…8de5backed Over | 21c | 251.58$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc277…9d94backed Over | 49c | 250$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.51 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +33%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 77c | 190$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.3 | 424 | 58%246 W · 178 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8849…9a83backed Under | 66c | 151.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 42c | 149$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.07 | 192 | 58.9%113 W · 79 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Under | 79c | 126.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 231 | 52.8%122 W · 109 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 34c | 125.61$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.9 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fba…1404backed Under | 80c | 125$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…a65dbacked Over | 47c | 107.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.81 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bab…50aabacked Under | 77c | 96.14$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.19 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 65cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a26…7300backed Over | 47c | 93.87$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.87 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f89…b87ebacked Over | 22c | 92.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.33 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.35per pick | 51cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x390c…e88ebacked Under | 79c | 88.61$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Over | 23c | 85.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.69 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 22c | 77.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.27 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 54c | 75.93$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.93 | 225 | 53.8%121 W · 104 L | +12.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91fc…54c9backed Over | 19c | 63.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +426.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 55c | 63.57$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.26 | 1,018 | 53.1%541 W · 477 L | -24.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b59…a1cdbacked Over | 47c | 61.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.7 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 51c | 54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 839 | 39.8%334 W · 505 L | -21.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…50d9backed Over | 37c | 51.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.35 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd5…b24abacked Under | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.37per pick | 51cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b5…eaa8backed Under | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1eb…ec16backed Over | 51c | 47.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 51c | 45.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 1,655 | 43.8%725 W · 930 L | -22.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 50c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 691 | 42.5%294 W · 397 L | -21.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc32e…203dbacked Over | 41c | 43.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 196 | 46.4%91 W · 105 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over | 53c | 37.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.53 | 191 | 30.4%58 W · 133 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb14c…4231backed Under | 76c | 27.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 49c | 22.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 240 | 47.9%115 W · 125 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…22c4backed Under | 80c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9623…50d5backed Under | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- RC Celta de Vigo vs. Valencia CF: O/U 3.5this page
- RC Celta de Vigo vs. Valencia CF: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- RC Celta de Vigo vs. Valencia CF: O/U 1.5Over won
- RC Celta de Vigo vs. Valencia CF: O/U 2.5Over won
- RC Celta de Vigo vs. Valencia CF: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: RC Celta de Vigo (-1.5)RC Celta de Vigo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.