TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Omega vs Fire Flux Esports - Map 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Fire Flux Esportsof Omega, Fire Flux Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$101,449
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$115,159

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,449 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Omega45c7,279$3,309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,309.441,39638.9%543 W · 853 L-41.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbadb…31a7backed Omega51c5,000$2,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,540.4611844.9%53 W · 65 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb035…ff78backed Fire Flux Esports52c3,813$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,812.7757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Fire Flux Esports71c3,706$2,643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,062.81,76859.2%1,047 W · 721 L+105.5wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x10d7…bbf6backed Fire Flux Esports51c3,617$1,832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,784.8619468.6%133 W · 61 L+25.9wins+0.13per pick55cpaid+12.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Omega43c2,230$957 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$957.082,60830.9%807 W · 1,801 L-103.7wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6421…045dbacked Fire Flux Esports56c1,572$876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$695.9315349.7%76 W · 77 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Fire Flux Esports20c1,432$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,150.311,01753.4%543 W · 474 L+65.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+6.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked Omega64c1,340$854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$853.7532348.9%158 W · 165 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x71d6…7248backed Fire Flux Esports62c1,221$757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.482810.7%3 W · 25 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-74%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Fire Flux Esports50c890$445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.323,41529.3%1,001 W · 2,414 L-275.1wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5944…764ebacked Fire Flux Esports48c825.95$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.957450%37 W · 37 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa369…3ad6backed Fire Flux Esports74c800$592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.1532746.5%152 W · 175 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3db7…375cbacked Omega5c724.1$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.2110921.1%23 W · 86 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-25.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x270e…53cabacked Omega76c661.16$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5008354.2%45 W · 38 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0328…bd17backed Fire Flux Esports70c635.45$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.593063.3%19 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1186…0355backed Fire Flux Esports54c580.97$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.4123356.2%131 W · 102 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb56d…8041backed Fire Flux Esports68c554.43$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.43580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick63cpaid+29.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c81…5518backed Fire Flux Esports33c541.99$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.3111949.6%59 W · 60 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+8.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Fire Flux Esports49c531.52$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.582,59947.8%1,242 W · 1,357 L-30.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Omega34c522.19$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.916,46642.9%2,777 W · 3,689 L-78.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x604e…2cb1backed Omega5c482.73$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.144822.9%11 W · 37 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick23cpaid+30.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51cf…45fbbacked Omega38c468.07$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.542240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f8e…0c69backed Fire Flux Esports42c466.64$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.6426939%105 W · 164 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e2c…787cbacked Fire Flux Esports53c353.05$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.3672644.4%322 W · 404 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc75d…0717backed Fire Flux Esports29c350$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.628743.2%124 W · 163 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c7b…6e9dbacked Omega51c342.76$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.7918444%81 W · 103 L-9.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-20.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x84d4…77a9backed Omega67c299.8$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20011540.9%47 W · 68 L-13.1wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-27.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x074c…771cbacked Fire Flux Esports70c292.19$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.6916963.3%107 W · 62 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Fire Flux Esports74c254.46$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.681,60646.8%752 W · 854 L-27.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Omega48c233.94$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.867645%304 W · 372 L-24.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9a9…e7d8backed Omega46c204$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.847252.8%38 W · 34 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Fire Flux Esports40c201$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.647836.8%176 W · 302 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3881…804ebacked Omega60c201$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.61,47651.8%765 W · 711 L-4.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6d3…bab9backed Omega43c197.18$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.7916344.2%72 W · 91 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e47…bdbfbacked Omega41c195.11$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8038269.4%265 W · 117 L+30.8wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+12.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x997c…51f3backed Fire Flux Esports47c194$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.0421855.5%121 W · 97 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c47…2e55backed Omega31c193.54$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6024047.9%115 W · 125 L+12.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Fire Flux Esports45c187.51$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.912,45434.4%845 W · 1,609 L-189.3wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-37.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xf9d1…73edbacked Omega54c183.63$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b45…362bbacked Fire Flux Esports79c182.49$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.6827838.1%106 W · 172 L-16.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-25.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd2bb…bd8ebacked Fire Flux Esports52c176.26$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.3818135.9%65 W · 116 L-15.0wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-38%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Omega36c166$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.582,11942.9%909 W · 1,210 L-66.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b27…0635backed Fire Flux Esports56c162.79$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.2930949.2%152 W · 157 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Fire Flux Esports48c162.59$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.273,88836.6%1,423 W · 2,465 L-197.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa8eb…0f59backed Fire Flux Esports33c152.42$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.4221545.6%98 W · 117 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14ca…8f43backed Fire Flux Esports48c144$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.8813339.8%53 W · 80 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-16.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Fire Flux Esports53c142.07$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.1418445.7%84 W · 100 L-0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f0c…da03backed Fire Flux Esports42c123.06$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.915046%23 W · 27 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-12.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Fire Flux Esports49c121.91$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.552,32851.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L+92.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x816f…5e5dbacked Omega24c120.25$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.66714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-69.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2bd8…d64cbacked Fire Flux Esports56c120.07$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.031266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+18%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Omega45c118.7$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.284,66143.5%2,027 W · 2,634 L-85.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Omega49c113.01$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.515,26231.3%1,647 W · 3,615 L-381.6wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x52dd…005dbacked Omega48c104.17$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick63cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb373…d97cbacked Fire Flux Esports65c100.81$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.3458345.3%264 W · 319 L-16.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbbdf…b8a0backed Omega54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546858.8%40 W · 28 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xca08…08bdbacked Fire Flux Esports58c100$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4241150.1%206 W · 205 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7374…38ffbacked Fire Flux Esports77c100$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.764351.2%22 W · 21 L-4.9wins-0.11per pick63cpaid-20.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked Omega65c100$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652138.1%8 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+45.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41b1…f560backed Omega61c98.46$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c1c…d47dbacked Omega70c98.2$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$691050%5 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick56cpaid+10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x299f…2c50backed Omega29c92.92$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8171739.6%284 W · 433 L-25.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-19.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f4b…69debacked Fire Flux Esports34c89.4$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.444641.3%184 W · 262 L-28.7wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x94d2…cfbdbacked Omega39c88.22$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.452,08447%979 W · 1,105 L-64.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-18.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Fire Flux Esports53c86$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.312,34346.7%1,094 W · 1,249 L-49.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5703…1048backed Fire Flux Esports56c85.09$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.091241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-30.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Omega37c83.16$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.841,83041.6%762 W · 1,068 L-68.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-21.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f98…cb91backed Fire Flux Esports30c78$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.66743.3%29 W · 38 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5439…c45bbacked Fire Flux Esports71c76.06$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.061770.6%12 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fab…9a70backed Fire Flux Esports60c75.5$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.574987.8%43 W · 6 L+10.0wins+0.20per pick67cpaid+29.6%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Fire Flux Esports58c72.16$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.512,42944.6%1,083 W · 1,346 L-63.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Fire Flux Esports60c72.16$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.854,89737.4%1,832 W · 3,065 L-245.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5440…f13bbacked Fire Flux Esports39c70.85$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.8811255.4%62 W · 50 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeaf1…09b7backed Fire Flux Esports72c69.44$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.4411140.5%45 W · 66 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd11…67b1backed Fire Flux Esports44c68.18$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.1822557.3%129 W · 96 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19f0…0c9fbacked Fire Flux Esports76c66.22$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.221471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.8wins+0.20per pick51cpaid+39.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe53b…fe03backed Omega46c65.21$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040971.9%294 W · 115 L+23.6wins+0.06per pick66cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd89d…d6b7backed Omega75c61.33$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463141.9%13 W · 18 L-4.0wins-0.13per pick55cpaid-34%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Fire Flux Esports48c60.15$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.473,16545.7%1,446 W · 1,719 L-74.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b28…ff4fbacked Fire Flux Esports69c60$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.411,31851.7%682 W · 636 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Omega64c55.53$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.544,04050.9%2,057 W · 1,983 L+71.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ab3…3044backed Fire Flux Esports34c54$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.641,06242.2%448 W · 614 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91ac…5ff3backed Fire Flux Esports42c50.96$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.4676646.1%353 W · 413 L+1.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc1d…9332backed Fire Flux Esports57c47.52$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.525549.1%27 W · 28 L+4.1wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+4.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6628…3d33backed Omega56c44.64$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2542174.1%312 W · 109 L+14.1wins+0.03per pick71cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb84…59d2backed Fire Flux Esports63c43.1$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.14077.5%31 W · 9 L+5.9wins+0.15per pick63cpaid+21.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbd30…9a01backed Omega36c41.66$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1528561.1%174 W · 111 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb850…3808backed Omega35c41.48$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.491729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-39.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb05a…abdebacked Omega31c38.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.099552.6%50 W · 45 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Omega51c38$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.322,46724.6%606 W · 1,861 L-318.3wins-0.13per pick37cpaid-51.8%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x0003…9492backed Omega41c36.58$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159154.9%50 W · 41 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdcbb…07d9backed Omega51c35.32$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.015356.6%30 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69fa…e259backed Omega42c34.14$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4860753.9%327 W · 280 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fe0…fb5bbacked Omega57c33.33$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1941054.6%224 W · 186 L-2.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-8.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Omega31c33$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.221,30326.5%345 W · 958 L-89.1wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-29.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2903…9203backed Fire Flux Esports70c31$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.320253%107 W · 95 L+0.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8dd…812fbacked Omega36c30.24$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8912756.7%72 W · 55 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1342…c430backed Fire Flux Esports36c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.31952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick55cpaid+7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c19…6d8abacked Fire Flux Esports73c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.173455.9%19 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.