TailMyPicks

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Lol · resolved market

LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Top Esportsof Top Esports, JD Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$753,195
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$790,689

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $753,195 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 361 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf070…ac55backed JD Gaming49c50,241$24,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,820.2853750.5%271 W · 266 L+14.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x695d…0d7cbacked JD Gaming26c46,215$12,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,109.6867853.4%362 W · 316 L+25.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Top Esports51c39,338$20,062 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,275.4325946.7%121 W · 138 L+1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked Top Esports37c36,429$13,541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,888.171,30045.2%587 W · 713 L+50.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6eb0…a15cbacked JD Gaming0c30,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120853.5%3 W · 82 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-87.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0c4…f745backed JD Gaming57c27,036$15,358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,357.889955.6%55 W · 44 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa759…1119backed Top Esports54c15,000$8,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,899.9911367.3%76 W · 37 L+14.9wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+24%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x8fd1…bfe8backed Top Esports31c12,000$3,675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,324.9655639.6%220 W · 336 L+32.2wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+5.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed JD Gaming49c11,485$5,678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,678.311,42838.4%548 W · 880 L-42.4wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a86…4998backed JD Gaming49c10,204$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00018629.6%55 W · 131 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked JD Gaming19c10,121$1,905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,905.152,33039.4%919 W · 1,411 L-83.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-20.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb234…1c20backed Top Esports53c10,018$5,307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,710.7230845.1%139 W · 169 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57b4…b46bbacked Top Esports49c10,000$4,882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,117.8930044%132 W · 168 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-4.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf148…0b4fbacked JD Gaming58c9,002$5,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,205.1930345.2%137 W · 166 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x85d5…45eebacked JD Gaming73c7,940$5,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,820.2859658.2%347 W · 249 L-29.5wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-10.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3818…9797backed JD Gaming55c6,858$3,794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,794.4858457.7%337 W · 247 L+24.3wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee7c…70f2backed Top Esports34c6,395$2,158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,236.7448834%166 W · 322 L+25.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+5.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4873…15babacked Top Esports31c5,542$1,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,841.5417953.1%95 W · 84 L+7.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6842…20d0backed JD Gaming57c5,200$2,973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,972.91,01647%478 W · 538 L+21.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01e6…e7e0backed Top Esports75c5,149$3,862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,287.2548449.8%241 W · 243 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab44…7ffebacked Top Esports55c5,000$2,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,25026344.5%117 W · 146 L+18.3wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+7.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa469…0782backed JD Gaming54c5,000$2,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,719.991,32753.3%707 W · 620 L+37.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked JD Gaming45c4,674$2,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,103.1190348.4%437 W · 466 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb496…1f45backed Top Esports51c4,500$2,295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,204.985740.4%23 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9973…bd7fbacked JD Gaming60c4,005$2,399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,399.2618452.7%97 W · 87 L-0.8wins0.00per pick53cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x017b…1ef4backed JD Gaming6c3,767$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.0315429.9%46 W · 108 L+15.4wins+0.10per pick20cpaid+81.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked JD Gaming62c3,743$2,324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,324.441,26737.7%478 W · 789 L+35.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x060d…1094backed JD Gaming23c3,722$848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$847.7520621.8%45 W · 161 L-18.1wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-50.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc6f1…5729backed Top Esports76c3,537$2,698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$839.3516362.6%102 W · 61 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-6.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcae6…4f85backed Top Esports75c3,400$2,556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$844.2867276.9%517 W · 155 L+87.3wins+0.13per pick64cpaid+30.2%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed JD Gaming46c3,378$1,553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,552.8147933.2%159 W · 320 L+11.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed Top Esports80c3,213$2,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$642.5389746.9%421 W · 476 L+43.7wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x160d…6f25backed JD Gaming1c3,152$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1312326%32 W · 91 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2bb…3250backed JD Gaming20c3,062$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60024253.7%130 W · 112 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Top Esports52c3,038$1,592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,446.1420346.3%94 W · 109 L-10.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2391…554fbacked JD Gaming50c3,025$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50029843.3%129 W · 169 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50b1…861bbacked JD Gaming64c3,000$1,912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,912.3934448.8%168 W · 176 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0103…5ca8backed Top Esports32c2,898$927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,970.427162%44 W · 27 L+7.4wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+19.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Top Esports52c2,754$1,432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,322.111,31055.8%731 W · 579 L+43.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3af1…d739backed Top Esports51c2,693$1,373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,319.5451146.8%239 W · 272 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce20…0b7bbacked Top Esports71c2,667$1,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$767.4330854.5%168 W · 140 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6260…fccbbacked JD Gaming4c2,666$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.756347.1%45 W · 589 L-1.9wins0.00per pick7cpaid-34%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked JD Gaming30c2,623$797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$796.522,70735.9%972 W · 1,735 L-152.3wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-31.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5a3c…38d3backed JD Gaming1c2,545$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.956432.1%181 W · 383 L-2.3wins0.00per pick32cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3bc…5bd2backed JD Gaming63c2,511$1,582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,581.929748.1%143 W · 154 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-3.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5809…9868backed Top Esports66c2,345$1,541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$804.0597527.8%271 W · 704 L-23.8wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-28.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x958b…50cebacked Top Esports51c2,278$1,166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,111.655034%17 W · 33 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x69b1…2687backed JD Gaming45c2,221$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.4530843.2%133 W · 175 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8ef…2864backed Top Esports50c2,076$1,042 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,034.3318144.2%80 W · 101 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x124e…1c58backed JD Gaming64c2,044$1,308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,308.3917454.6%95 W · 79 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed Top Esports53c2,000$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9501,20354%650 W · 553 L+28.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x024c…5fa1backed Top Esports50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0001,22135.9%438 W · 783 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf43…ae9abacked JD Gaming75c2,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50020252%105 W · 97 L-10.9wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfa4e…30dabacked Top Esports68c1,700$1,157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542.656357.1%36 W · 27 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66e5…d3c7backed JD Gaming61c1,603$978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$977.6846257.8%267 W · 195 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Top Esports52c1,573$812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$761.221,05650.4%532 W · 524 L+36.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed JD Gaming15c1,560$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.291,21343.4%527 W · 686 L-15.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5ed…ee18backed Top Esports53c1,515$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$714.894242.9%18 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked JD Gaming15c1,500$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2252,83641.4%1,175 W · 1,661 L-12.9wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb46…ed08backed JD Gaming18c1,500$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.4232736.7%120 W · 207 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x95d2…1a3ebacked JD Gaming25c1,467$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.497343.8%32 W · 41 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x174f…a4acbacked Top Esports61c1,464$886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$577.876262.9%39 W · 23 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b42…62afbacked JD Gaming49c1,457$719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$718.9534536.5%126 W · 219 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-3.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb3d8…fb80backed JD Gaming60c1,425$861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$860.772152.4%11 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed JD Gaming4c1,400$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551,5203.3%50 W · 1,470 L-54.0wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-74.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3b5…941abacked JD Gaming47c1,300$613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61390350.8%459 W · 444 L+17.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x772b…5facbacked Top Esports53c1,280$673 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$606.7386054.7%470 W · 390 L+32.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed JD Gaming18c1,266$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.332,23733.3%745 W · 1,492 L-71.3wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xabc1…9561backed JD Gaming64c1,245$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8008061.3%49 W · 31 L-0.1wins0.00per pick61cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0da…749bbacked JD Gaming11c1,206$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13568915.2%105 W · 584 L-31.1wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-58.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e69…7f76backed Top Esports53c1,200$636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56428448.6%138 W · 146 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7b7…c49bbacked JD Gaming40c1,193$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.4816353.4%87 W · 76 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc56…8f28backed Top Esports49c1,157$571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$586.1115648.7%76 W · 80 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed Top Esports55c1,150$636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$514.261,46961.4%902 W · 567 L-20.4wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfad…fa05backed Top Esports53c1,132$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532.081,22358.1%710 W · 513 L+43.2wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked JD Gaming29c1,114$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.812,02030.5%617 W · 1,403 L-172.4wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x60dd…40e5backed Top Esports77c1,099$849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.0523141.1%95 W · 136 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5733…4c87backed JD Gaming48c1,094$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.1719748.2%95 W · 102 L+15.3wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+27.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed JD Gaming20c1,071$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.291,01447.6%483 W · 531 L+8.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x825e…2a99backed JD Gaming47c1,064$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50027749.1%136 W · 141 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6e9…caedbacked JD Gaming18c1,032$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.7410359.2%61 W · 42 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea1b…ec19backed JD Gaming63c1,000$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6303154.8%17 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick61cpaid+0.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x62c6…ab7bbacked Top Esports53c1,000$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47084360.7%512 W · 331 L+44.6wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5cc6…4593backed Top Esports35c1,000$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65028246.1%130 W · 152 L-1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Top Esports33c999.99$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$669.992,52147.3%1,193 W · 1,328 L-34.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71f5…1aecbacked JD Gaming7c999.98$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7021828.4%62 W · 156 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick31cpaid+0.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf56e…b659backed JD Gaming57c994.76$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56730%0 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed JD Gaming52c970.29$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.611,14338.8%444 W · 699 L-46.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7de0…7429backed Top Esports53c943.4$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.415756.7%89 W · 68 L+0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c73…6dafbacked Top Esports77c909.09$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.0952365%340 W · 183 L-16.3wins-0.03per pick68cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe015…6ffdbacked JD Gaming46c893.39$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.9696948.6%471 W · 498 L+12.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bcc…b4fabacked Top Esports60c868.14$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.8223749.4%117 W · 120 L+7.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a2c…83afbacked JD Gaming1c850$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104242.6%11 W · 413 L-15.3wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-81.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xed6a…3d04backed JD Gaming22c811.62$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.734623.9%11 W · 35 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09c6…291ebacked Top Esports54c805.56$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.5618560%111 W · 74 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1044…d67abacked Top Esports70c779.13$548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.1738931.9%124 W · 265 L-14.5wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-28.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked JD Gaming46c776.98$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.411,61148.4%780 W · 831 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c5b…54f5backed Top Esports39c769.23$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.238737.9%33 W · 54 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5de…cabebacked JD Gaming48c761$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.4819336.3%70 W · 123 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Top Esports38c758$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.961,44157.4%827 W · 614 L+35.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.