IPO · resolved market
SpaceX IPO: Open Up/Down on Second Day
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29e0a14554f32866b085b887968a2503008525f2dbe8b694e293edb6f58b3ea6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,461
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,223
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,461 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x460a…e696backed Down | 31c | 1,854$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.02 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…2c2dbacked Down | 45c | 1,675$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758.85 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…3931backed Up | 53c | 1,459$767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.13 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Down | 12c | 1,025$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.48 | 84 | 1.2%1 W · 83 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 8cpaid | -98.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca78…b3a8backed Down | 10c | 1,023$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.75 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf07…c770backed Up | 59c | 992.46$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.57 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +202.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1543…baafbacked Down | 47c | 951.62$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.46 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Down | 10c | 588.81$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.65 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe917…9612backed Down | 33c | 499.99$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked Down | 44c | 434$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.66 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Up | 55c | 400$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -6.9wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…450ebacked Down | 47c | 359.43$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc57b…8281backed Down | 38c | 320$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.84 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6718…e623backed Up | 57c | 300$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked Up | 61c | 285.05$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.17 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed Down | 44c | 254.24$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.24 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46a1…2736backed Down | 45c | 209.99$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.49 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b1…1354backed Down | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Up | 56c | 208.03$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.53 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92d4…d21dbacked Down | 49c | 203.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Down | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -7.8wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4867…a6f8backed Down | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed Up | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d9…94c6backed Down | 42c | 199.98$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Down | 10c | 192.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a28…d58bbacked Up | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a7…bedfbacked Up | 56c | 173.05$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecd6…dadabacked Up | 58c | 172.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Down | 8c | 152.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 92 | 15.2%14 W · 78 L | -16.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5351…c7edbacked Up | 54c | 146.1$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.95 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x661e…81d6backed Up | 70c | 137.96$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb96…6006backed Down | 31c | 132.29$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…aa7cbacked Up | 51c | 109.8$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93c2…08e0backed Down | 41c | 109.09$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe736…9d9fbacked Down | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a7f…0ad6backed Down | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90a8…ed23backed Down | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b9…d898backed Up | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -50%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c1…ffabbacked Down | 42c | 99.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00ee…9a7dbacked Up | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Down | 43c | 91.06$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.41 | 40 | 5%2 W · 38 L | -8.1wins | -0.20per pick | 25cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x52e0…89e4backed Down | 29c | 90$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3af…1ee3backed Up | 54c | 66.61$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b06…7d94backed Down | 44c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Up | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 139 | 32.4%45 W · 94 L | -16.7wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcfa7…3fcebacked Up | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4368…ce70backed Up | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Up | 72c | 41.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb453…c257backed Down | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa74…78b9backed Up | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 53cpaid | +93.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d48…678cbacked Up | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b0…d766backed Up | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01f…3332backed Up | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe4…2a32backed Up | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Up | 74c | 34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 32 | 93.8%30 W · 2 L | +6.6wins | +0.21per pick | 73cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Up | 70c | 33.61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd857…9cf1backed Down | 67c | 30.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Up | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Up | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 47 | 14.9%7 W · 40 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10a5…08b0backed Up | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…84b4backed Up | 79c | 25.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd2…6ba2backed Down | 49c | 25.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…0c0dbacked Down | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…04f0backed Up | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe10…f86bbacked Up | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Up | 62c | 22.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac7a…414fbacked Up | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e63…134fbacked Up | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34b0…05a6backed Up | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Up | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ad…39c6backed Up | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd173…1b86backed Up | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3391…31fabacked Up | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95cf…e7ddbacked Up | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.