TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Deni Avdija: Points O/U 21.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,005

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,005 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe401…7b88backed No52c479.13$249 inLost-$248.885,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Yes46c405.58$187 inWon+$218.961,64547.5%782 W · 863 L+40.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f03…ed48backed Yes52c300.56$156 inWon+$144.271662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+22.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa55d…001ebacked Yes54c276.4$150 inWon+$126.44837.5%18 W · 30 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-27.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked No47c188.68$89 inLost-$88.681,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xaa88…9ff5backed No48c150.84$72 inLost-$72.41526.7%4 W · 11 L-3.1wins-0.20per pick47cpaid-43.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf93d…49e4backed No48c149.72$72 inLost-$71.871338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.14per pick53cpaid-27.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4dd1…6a87backed No54c117.45$63 inLost-$63.1611565.2%75 W · 40 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd55…5582backed Yes48c115$55 inWon+$59.81861.1%11 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+22.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x133a…f9d1backed No47c99.99$47 inLost-$4795260.2%573 W · 379 L+37.0wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed No43c87.72$38 inLost-$37.722,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8cc2…eaefbacked Yes53c60.13$32 inWon+$28.2611056.4%62 W · 48 L+6.9wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f3f…ae90backed Yes52c59.62$31 inWon+$28.372437.5%9 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6af…05c6backed Yes58c43.1$25 inWon+$18.17548%36 W · 39 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd092…9a30backed Yes55c36.36$20 inWon+$16.367544%33 W · 42 L+0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked No48c27.98$13 inLost-$13.4392058%534 W · 386 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x379e…06c7backed Yes59c27.12$16 inWon+$11.12540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-30.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No45c26.99$12 inLost-$12.154,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84c7…bea7backed Yes51c25.67$13 inWon+$12.581643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4125…23a9backed No49c25$12 inLost-$12.254245.2%19 W · 23 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.