TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Deni Avdija: Assists O/U 6.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,278

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,278 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5302…0a6fbacked Yes55c870$479 inWon+$391.511957.1%68 W · 51 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked No45c855$385 inLost-$384.751,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed No47c543.31$255 inLost-$254.9428842.7%123 W · 165 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2d7…2b16backed Yes52c278.9$145 inWon+$133.871844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Yes53c188.68$100 inWon+$88.6893145.8%426 W · 505 L-25.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7473…89eebacked Yes53c188.68$100 inWon+$88.684151.2%21 W · 20 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7200…9299backed Yes54c129.07$69 inWon+$59.5736954.7%202 W · 167 L+28.0wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+18.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5955…f86ebacked No48c96.67$46 inLost-$46.41258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+18.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5dec…058cbacked No48c91.41$44 inLost-$43.881346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf46…a799backed Yes55c90.82$50 inWon+$40.8711151.4%57 W · 54 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9794…32c9backed No48c90.29$43 inLost-$43.342050%10 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x133a…f9d1backed No45c88.61$40 inLost-$39.8795260.2%573 W · 379 L+37.0wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xca0f…780bbacked Yes53c84.91$45 inWon+$39.912948.3%14 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0c5…4291backed No47c78.87$37 inLost-$36.8796956.3%546 W · 423 L+26.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No47c75$36 inLost-$35.574,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf32c…ff08backed Yes54c74.07$40 inWon+$34.072835.7%10 W · 18 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-19.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No46c69.01$32 inLost-$32.041,78653.2%950 W · 836 L+52.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa528…2499backed No46c62.07$29 inLost-$28.5583158.1%483 W · 348 L+18.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3de6…405cbacked Yes53c56.31$30 inWon+$26.4743453.2%231 W · 203 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6236…6881backed Yes50c49.86$25 inWon+$24.9323748.1%114 W · 123 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed No47c39.95$19 inLost-$18.6190357%515 W · 388 L+40.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc991…abd4backed No50c38.86$19 inLost-$19.4348751.7%252 W · 235 L-1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4066…e3c3backed Yes53c37.74$20 inWon+$17.749031.1%28 W · 62 L-8.7wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-21.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x4e5b…b58bbacked Yes53c37.74$20 inWon+$17.747640.8%31 W · 45 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed No47c26.5$13 inLost-$12.521,43347.2%676 W · 757 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd0c…282cbacked No48c25$12 inLost-$124845.8%22 W · 26 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-16.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa2cc…55a0backed No56c20$11 inLost-$11.24434.1%15 W · 29 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-18.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.