Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Union Berlin vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e4c22f8184945cb825d62c5aba90e28632c90fb60e9a16143892244725b9445
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,545
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,478
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,545 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 77c | 4,957$3,828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,129.25 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 27c | 1,500$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Over | 12c | 1,039$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.66 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf425…be71backed Over | 31c | 712.58$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.9 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +3.9wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 73c | 468.95$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.62 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 29c | 400$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 72c | 357.14$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Over | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Over | 25c | 350$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 205 | 45.9%94 W · 111 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 98 | 56.1%55 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 6c | 255$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 210 | 41.9%88 W · 122 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 70c | 238.04$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.85 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Over | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 22c | 181.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9f…4131backed Over | 31c | 168.15$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Over | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 128 | 61.7%79 W · 49 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 70c | 161.67$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 358 | 56.4%202 W · 156 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc34…799dbacked Over | 26c | 150$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -73%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 13c | 147.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6250…8707backed Under | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 14c | 104.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 129 | 51.2%66 W · 63 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…f0b3backed Over | 31c | 104$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a62…fa34backed Over | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x936b…c603backed Over | 27c | 92.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd851…9305backed Over | 29c | 92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Over | 27c | 77.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 71c | 70.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.63 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb7…7a94backed Over | 28c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 109 | 46.8%51 W · 58 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x60c2…8052backed Over | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 17c | 61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 73c | 58.15$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 28c | 57.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a57…9ac1backed Over | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 116 | 35.3%41 W · 75 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under | 69c | 35.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2097…853fbacked Over | 31c | 35.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06b1…614cbacked Under | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +102%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Under | 73c | 29.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a89…196fbacked Under | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 71c | 21.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 210 | 51.4%108 W · 102 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fba…dc55backed Under | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76e7…1872backed Under | 76c | 18.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 53cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7773…f936backed Under | 71c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Under | 72c | 16.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Under | 72c | 15.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 3.5this page
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 2.5Under won
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.