Tennis · resolved market
Istanbul 2: Dan Added vs Lucas Poullain
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3005dbe66e4927a0ae6e80f28f3ce8d58937cb35adb4fc92cc451f8984978198
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lucas Poullainof Dan Added, Lucas Poullain
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,605
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,162
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,605 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Dan Added | 19c | 4,814$921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920.65 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Dan Added | 18c | 2,333$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.85 | 3,605 | 42.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L | -43.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Dan Added | 36c | 2,201$782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$782.34 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacf8…e791backed Lucas Poullain | 47c | 1,960$921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,038.8 | 330 | 37.3%123 W · 207 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Lucas Poullain | 63c | 1,491$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.57 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…a6a2backed Lucas Poullain | 52c | 1,248$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.81 | 3,068 | 57.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L | +173.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Dan Added | 58c | 1,194$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.74 | 1,624 | 49.8%809 W · 815 L | -9.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Lucas Poullain | 68c | 1,187$808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.13 | 4,533 | 67.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L | +306.6wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeecf…9e86backed Dan Added | 37c | 594.59$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 37cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa004…a04fbacked Dan Added | 61c | 394.2$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.41 | 153 | 59.5%91 W · 62 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x571f…1d37backed Lucas Poullain | 53c | 361$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.17 | 1,065 | 54.7%583 W · 482 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f17…0724backed Lucas Poullain | 43c | 350$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.5 | 702 | 54.4%382 W · 320 L | +40.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Lucas Poullain | 40c | 318.69$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.22 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b3…145dbacked Dan Added | 60c | 258.33$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 917 | 54%495 W · 422 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Dan Added | 47c | 235.65$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.2 | 2,766 | 47.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Lucas Poullain | 41c | 230.15$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.73 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd46e…d10dbacked Dan Added | 38c | 226.45$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 589 | 31.1%183 W · 406 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Lucas Poullain | 40c | 203.28$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.97 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf753…bcfebacked Lucas Poullain | 40c | 186.65$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.65 | 537 | 36.9%198 W · 339 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x323e…1ddabacked Lucas Poullain | 42c | 179.98$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.49 | 635 | 37.6%239 W · 396 L | +20.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0f…d336backed Dan Added | 58c | 177.01$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…794ebacked Dan Added | 17c | 176.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed Dan Added | 28c | 173.22$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.77 | 2,065 | 35.2%727 W · 1,338 L | -52.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Lucas Poullain | 43c | 171.92$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.54 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79e9…80b1backed Dan Added | 31c | 165.95$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.92 | 332 | 28.3%94 W · 238 L | -12.0wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf30…5c23backed Dan Added | 60c | 163.63$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.18 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | -8.2wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x40e5…e6adbacked Dan Added | 15c | 163.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 103 | 10.7%11 W · 92 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Lucas Poullain | 54c | 163.01$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.49 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed Lucas Poullain | 63c | 157.06$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.11 | 502 | 68.3%343 W · 159 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Dan Added | 16c | 151$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x308c…74e8backed Dan Added | 38c | 148.16$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 84 | 56%47 W · 37 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9694…b7adbacked Dan Added | 59c | 135.22$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2,058 | 59.5%1,225 W · 833 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Dan Added | 34c | 134.54$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.88 | 1,880 | 48.5%912 W · 968 L | +8.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5deb…ccddbacked Lucas Poullain | 71c | 134.29$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.3 | 721 | 47.3%341 W · 380 L | -18.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8558…8615backed Lucas Poullain | 41c | 132.97$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.79 | 311 | 64.3%200 W · 111 L | +36.4wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfc34…0953backed Dan Added | 59c | 116.51$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.74 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…55f8backed Dan Added | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2262…21a1backed Lucas Poullain | 53c | 100.45$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.4 | 763 | 55.6%424 W · 339 L | +29.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Lucas Poullain | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 1,955 | 48%939 W · 1,016 L | +16.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Dan Added | 31c | 92.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 1,710 | 53.7%918 W · 792 L | +30.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Dan Added | 37c | 90$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.53 | 559 | 41.9%234 W · 325 L | -27.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Dan Added | 51c | 90$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.15 | 1,626 | 52.7%857 W · 769 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Dan Added | 59c | 77.11$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.49 | 695 | 45.8%318 W · 377 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd32d…23b4backed Lucas Poullain | 55c | 73.31$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 91 | 51.6%47 W · 44 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…f356backed Lucas Poullain | 63c | 68.71$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 79 | 63.3%50 W · 29 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Lucas Poullain | 66c | 67$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.01 | 978 | 52%509 W · 469 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Lucas Poullain | 40c | 65.08$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.05 | 553 | 47.6%263 W · 290 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Dan Added | 18c | 64.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2326…b627backed Lucas Poullain | 68c | 61.41$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 1,256 | 65.4%821 W · 435 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…d5dabacked Lucas Poullain | 31c | 53.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.73 | 519 | 42.6%221 W · 298 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Dan Added | 57c | 53.21$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.51 | 2,274 | 58%1,318 W · 956 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6485…a265backed Dan Added | 35c | 51.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 2,281 | 52%1,187 W · 1,094 L | +82.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Dan Added | 44c | 41.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Dan Added | 38c | 41.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Lucas Poullain | 41c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 1,725 | 52.2%901 W · 824 L | -8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfae…155ebacked Lucas Poullain | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ef…dddabacked Dan Added | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Lucas Poullain | 41c | 38.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70bb…10d3backed Lucas Poullain | 59c | 35.87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 337 | 54%182 W · 155 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4126…e68bbacked Dan Added | 66c | 35.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 1,159 | 69%800 W · 359 L | +56.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Lucas Poullain | 41c | 35.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 423 | 50.8%215 W · 208 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Lucas Poullain | 43c | 33.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 1,973 | 46.3%914 W · 1,059 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…0685backed Dan Added | 56c | 30.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 147 | 57.1%84 W · 63 L | -10.3wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…caa6backed Lucas Poullain | 61c | 26.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 267 | 48.7%130 W · 137 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe4…f12fbacked Dan Added | 55c | 25.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 586 | 65.5%384 W · 202 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Dan Added | 60c | 23.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 2,854 | 39.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L | -83.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee3…2e6abacked Dan Added | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 299 | 45.8%137 W · 162 L | +20.6wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Lucas Poullain | 62c | 16.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 350 | 39.4%138 W · 212 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04fc…eba1backed Lucas Poullain | 68c | 15.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 124 | 67.7%84 W · 40 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.