NBA · resolved market
Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x306c43be2b12d847b58ea3adc4131bacc58166db9a8fd94545bb077c57e99286
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,016
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,004
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,016 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 12,281$5,773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,773.5 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Over | 53c | 8,925$4,730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,194.75 | 185 | 36.8%68 W · 117 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Over | 56c | 5,251$2,927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,324.23 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 48c | 4,959$2,378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,378.3 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 53c | 3,774$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,773.58 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 37c | 2,120$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$789.82 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f6…71eebacked Over | 40c | 2,020$808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,211.99 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Under | 60c | 1,302$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781.3 | 566 | 46.5%263 W · 303 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…c7dfbacked Over | 60c | 661.69$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.69 | 364 | 53%193 W · 171 L | -17.0wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 54c | 593.06$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.54 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 47c | 450.22$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.61 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 47c | 433.12$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.57 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb7b…1476backed Over | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 191 | 45.5%87 W · 104 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 45c | 363.79$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.7 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05e6…8b14backed Over | 44c | 300$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Under | 56c | 290$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.4 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 68c | 239$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.36 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1155…2315backed Over | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 221 | 70.6%156 W · 65 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81b7…bd2abacked Under | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…8848backed Over | 49c | 163.87$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.87 | 722 | 50.6%365 W · 357 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 52c | 161.1$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.44 | 1,113 | 41.6%463 W · 650 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 71c | 160.71$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.98 | 1,170 | 50.3%588 W · 582 L | +46.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Over | 53c | 160$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.2 | 432 | 46.1%199 W · 233 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…3d42backed Under | 49c | 126$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.74 | 543 | 51.6%280 W · 263 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cbf…70a1backed Under | 51c | 117.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 63c | 106.66$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.95 | 766 | 53.5%410 W · 356 L | +65.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f4…5107backed Over | 75c | 95.61$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57e5…e51ebacked Over | 53c | 75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.25 | 333 | 60.4%201 W · 132 L | +17.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64aa…7f42backed Over | 54c | 74.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.33 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf406…c9bfbacked Over | 53c | 66.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Under | 28c | 54.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 243 | 30.5%74 W · 169 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67d2…a008backed Over | 78c | 51.2$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 129 | 61.2%79 W · 50 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbec4…637fbacked Under | 48c | 42.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 531 | 49.3%262 W · 269 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 954 | 52.3%499 W · 455 L | -17.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc0…73fbbacked Over | 52c | 38.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 54cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Under | 47c | 30.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 508 | 41.7%212 W · 296 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…c75fbacked Under | 52c | 29.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | -8.1wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 228.5this page
- Cedric Coward: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Deni Avdija: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Deni Avdija: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Donovan Clingan: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Grizzlies vs. Trail BlazersTrail Blazers won
- Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers: 1H O/U 120.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers: 1H O/U 122.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 232.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 233.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 234.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 235.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 237.5Under won
- Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Jrue Holiday: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Santi Aldama: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-10.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-8.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-9.5)Grizzlies won
- Ty Jerome: Points O/U 14.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.