TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Trail Blazers (-8.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Grizzliesof Trail Blazers, Grizzlies
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$348,050
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$348,691

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $348,050 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4924…3782backed Trail Blazers53c207,878$110,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110,175.3887451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Grizzlies47c150,000$70,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79,5002,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Grizzlies47c34,345$16,143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,202.172,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ec1…057cbacked Trail Blazers54c29,630$16,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,0003946.2%18 W · 21 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-13.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5227…f9bdbacked Trail Blazers51c28,527$14,641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,641.210252.9%54 W · 48 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Grizzlies48c24,524$11,697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,826.449,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Grizzlies46c19,963$9,184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,779.215,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeac2…176dbacked Trail Blazers53c15,225$8,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,009.2425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-58.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Grizzlies49c11,111$5,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,666.6125753.7%138 W · 119 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Grizzlies50c10,135$5,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,07072648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Grizzlies47c6,383$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,382.971,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Grizzlies47c5,383$2,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,833.063,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed Grizzlies48c5,238$2,514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,723.570246.4%326 W · 376 L-20.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Grizzlies47c4,000$1,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,12033945.1%153 W · 186 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf668…5c69backed Grizzlies49c3,810$1,873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,937.1136359.8%217 W · 146 L+23.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+14.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf031…c80cbacked Grizzlies47c3,762$1,768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,994.046841.2%28 W · 40 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Grizzlies49c3,098$1,518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,579.986,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Grizzlies48c3,051$1,465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,586.6666646.8%312 W · 354 L-29.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Trail Blazers52c2,500$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3001,66752.7%878 W · 789 L+45.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Trail Blazers52c2,500$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,30085147.5%404 W · 447 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Grizzlies48c2,283$1,089 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,193.643,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04d2…4c2cbacked Grizzlies47c2,128$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,127.6617454%94 W · 80 L+6.3wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Trail Blazers23c2,117$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.298,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Grizzlies48c1,573$748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$824.184,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Trail Blazers52c951.82$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.952,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Trail Blazers48c937.5$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.381,91145.4%868 W · 1,043 L+22.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef21…3dc9backed Grizzlies49c852.78$418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.9215141.1%62 W · 89 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Trail Blazers50c755.02$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.264,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9030…4a23backed Trail Blazers50c720$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3607862.8%49 W · 29 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xae82…faf0backed Grizzlies53c500$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23515849.4%78 W · 80 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Grizzlies47c430.17$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.991,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fa0…d504backed Grizzlies52c384.62$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.628350.6%42 W · 41 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x64aa…7f42backed Trail Blazers52c384.62$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005749.1%28 W · 29 L+0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e16…0127backed Grizzlies48c380$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.622143%95 W · 126 L-12.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x49ed…a2fbbacked Trail Blazers50c326.78$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.3921937%81 W · 138 L-15.9wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x011b…fcc3backed Grizzlies51c313.73$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.7321743.8%95 W · 122 L-9.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e5b…a569backed Grizzlies52c307.69$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.6923847.1%112 W · 126 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc63…f1c7backed Trail Blazers49c293.12$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.7350653.2%269 W · 237 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3dc1…e318backed Grizzlies47c291.92$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.7253043.8%232 W · 298 L-25.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf23…ee81backed Trail Blazers53c277.76$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.214351.2%22 W · 21 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+37.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fe0…027abacked Grizzlies47c200$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1074860.4%29 W · 19 L+5.0wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+21.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x15d5…ef7bbacked Trail Blazers51c200$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1021,19838.8%465 W · 733 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Grizzlies49c193.13$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.8750651.2%259 W · 247 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a9b…7303backed Grizzlies52c192.3$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.363447.5%301 W · 333 L-19.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb9d…c3eebacked Grizzlies62c190.9$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.8610657.5%61 W · 45 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf57a…73ecbacked Trail Blazers52c183.78$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.572356.5%13 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+13.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Trail Blazers55c160$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$881,44458.1%839 W · 605 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9900…ffacbacked Trail Blazers51c156.86$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.36per pick52cpaid-66.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5124…91bbbacked Grizzlies45c149.99$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.535444.6%158 W · 196 L+1.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf0e…3197backed Trail Blazers52c134.62$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7061957.5%356 W · 263 L+21.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Trail Blazers50c128.19$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.473,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Trail Blazers47c124.4$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.734,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Trail Blazers50c120$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602,60250.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L-20.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cbb…acb2backed Grizzlies52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.6789050.4%449 W · 441 L+4.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Grizzlies47c100$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Grizzlies47c100$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5359347%279 W · 314 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5558…f9c4backed Trail Blazers51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5137549.6%186 W · 189 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0fd…e1f5backed Trail Blazers53c100$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5349351.7%255 W · 238 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Grizzlies48c98.08$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0944…6771backed Trail Blazers52c98.08$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515942.4%25 W · 34 L+0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe09c…d04fbacked Trail Blazers53c94.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.993852.6%20 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeaf9…d6f0backed Grizzlies54c92.59$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.591752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20ec…fa43backed Trail Blazers54c92.59$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5061056.1%342 W · 268 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd410…bce5backed Grizzlies48c92.36$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.031675%12 W · 4 L+4.3wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+60%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x9317…6e69backed Grizzlies48c91.42$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.542626.9%7 W · 19 L-5.4wins-0.21per pick48cpaid-44.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Trail Blazers37c89.78$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.223,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1203…77ddbacked Grizzlies48c80.02$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.611040%4 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-25.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x61bf…9862backed Grizzlies50c80$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404652.2%24 W · 22 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa66d…0859backed Grizzlies50c75.44$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.5221645.8%99 W · 117 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd84…9f62backed Grizzlies48c70.7$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.7614352.4%75 W · 68 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d57…2b4ebacked Grizzlies48c69.99$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.7453945.3%244 W · 295 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x635b…195dbacked Grizzlies49c68$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.6838252.4%200 W · 182 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c04…2e2dbacked Grizzlies52c65.38$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.3850648%243 W · 263 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb390…642bbacked Trail Blazers54c59.26$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321,66150.3%836 W · 825 L-14.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe97…89e1backed Trail Blazers50c58$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2928251.8%146 W · 136 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6962…6a44backed Trail Blazers61c57.02$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b41…01c7backed Trail Blazers47c51.78$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1653839.4%212 W · 326 L-26.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8aab…8d40backed Grizzlies47c51.51$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.316443.9%72 W · 92 L-9.4wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-12.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x137e…20d7backed Grizzlies47c51.51$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.315040%60 W · 90 L-14.1wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-21.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Trail Blazers49c50.33$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.782,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd454…b47fbacked Grizzlies59c48.82$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.0427251.1%139 W · 133 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a31…152cbacked Trail Blazers50c45.14$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5748451.2%248 W · 236 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50f4…b728backed Trail Blazers47c42.8$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204744.7%21 W · 26 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-12.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x02ec…5412backed Grizzlies47c42.55$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.5527359%161 W · 112 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc1c7…d11ebacked Grizzlies49c41.46$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.024257.1%24 W · 18 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa33c…1b33backed Grizzlies48c41.21$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.4362844.9%282 W · 346 L-21.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Trail Blazers50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2095047.2%448 W · 502 L-28.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x65b6…2108backed Grizzlies50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2035844.1%158 W · 200 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf628…ba6fbacked Grizzlies44c39.51$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.138440.5%34 W · 50 L-4.8wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-11.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b0f…e949backed Grizzlies48c39.17$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.3710046%46 W · 54 L-6.1wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9310…569fbacked Grizzlies48c39.17$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.379745.4%44 W · 53 L-6.1wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-9.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd0e0…4d8fbacked Trail Blazers48c37.5$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1865950.8%335 W · 324 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8996…15efbacked Trail Blazers34c36.76$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4524330.5%74 W · 169 L-15.4wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-30.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Trail Blazers55c36.36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2095452.3%499 W · 455 L-17.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb107…a3f8backed Trail Blazers54c35$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.91,01851.6%525 W · 493 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5de…a312backed Grizzlies51c32.43$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.892450%12 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed Trail Blazers39c32.25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6855846.8%261 W · 297 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6cd6…16abbacked Trail Blazers50c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510558.1%61 W · 44 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd851…9305backed Trail Blazers52c29$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.084645.7%21 W · 25 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-3.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7f7…06c5backed Trail Blazers50c28.08$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0417750.8%90 W · 87 L+0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.