TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Jaxon Smith-Njigba: Anytime Touchdown

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,554
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,167

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,554 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa9d1…4660backed No21c1,140$239 inLost-$239.411122.5%25 W · 86 L+13.9wins+0.13per pick10cpaid+428.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8f81…5410backed No1c1,000$10 inLost-$10100%0 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09d2…cc27backed No53c462.5$245 inLost-$244.585044%22 W · 28 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfccd…b1afbacked No24c400$94 inLost-$94728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick25cpaid+12.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed No48c392.98$187 inLost-$187.4223850.8%121 W · 117 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbac2…727bbacked Yes53c379.63$200 inWon+$179.637337%27 W · 46 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94d5…74eabacked Yes51c116.98$60 inWon+$56.982254.5%12 W · 10 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+20.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xce0e…fb2ebacked Yes37c100$37 inWon+$63955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+36.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked No46c79.63$37 inLost-$36.6341540.2%167 W · 248 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb299…4a62backed Yes56c76$43 inWon+$33.4437556.3%211 W · 164 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Yes73c61$45 inWon+$16.4720757.5%119 W · 88 L+17.5wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+13.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x8d75…d730backed Yes40c50$20 inWon+$30933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-23.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a64…5cacbacked Yes50c40$20 inWon+$202458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd18…a458backed Yes51c39.22$20 inWon+$19.224156.1%23 W · 18 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf34f…4d6ebacked Yes56c35.71$20 inWon+$15.714647.8%22 W · 24 L-5.0wins-0.11per pick59cpaid-18.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3a50…c1e5backed Yes41c31.71$13 inWon+$18.711741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7dd2…4f04backed Yes50c20$10 inWon+$10728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-31.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No69c15$10 inLost-$10.3548847.5%232 W · 256 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 43 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.