NBA · resolved market
Clippers vs. Warriors: O/U 218.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34cdfd993357ee2bc9b4498c79d78fd25dbc992ae6a161a70e549b0e4db5d27c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,980
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,174
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,980 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7412…85d0backed Over | 44c | 2,300$1,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005.98 | 265 | 44.9%119 W · 146 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 56c | 2,129$1,186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$943.64 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 45c | 544.98$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.24 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 55c | 495.32$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.89 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 43c | 399.99$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07a0…7a80backed Under | 66c | 319.88$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.76 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 55c | 319$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.55 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 44c | 313.73$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.06 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bec…07a8backed Over | 45c | 220$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 207 | 44%91 W · 116 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked Over | 44c | 206.64$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.29 | 244 | 28.7%70 W · 174 L | -22.4wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Under | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 54c | 172.49$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.81 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Over | 23c | 115.89$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 138 | 35.5%49 W · 89 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 55c | 115.78$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.1 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 42c | 114.53$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.23 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 394 | 35.3%139 W · 255 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaea…4bbfbacked Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 405 | 41%166 W · 239 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 56c | 52.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.24 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9345…3869backed Under | 55c | 36.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 33c | 33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 656 | 30.2%198 W · 458 L | -86.7wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc935…2579backed Under | 67c | 33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 68 | 72.1%49 W · 19 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f8…148fbacked Over | 45c | 32.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d0…1a0fbacked Over | 45c | 25.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5302…0a6fbacked Under | 54c | 20.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 119 | 57.1%68 W · 51 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabdd…2d96backed Under | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 602 | 67.3%405 W · 197 L | +46.2wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Under | 75c | 16.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 658 | 72.8%479 W · 179 L | +46.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Clippers vs. Warriors: O/U 218.5this page
- Bennedict Mathurin: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Bennedict Mathurin: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Brandin Podziemski: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Brandin Podziemski: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- Brook Lopez: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Clippers vs. WarriorsClippers won
- Clippers vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylineWarriors won
- Clippers vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 105.5Under won
- Clippers vs. Warriors: O/U 215.5Under won
- Clippers vs. Warriors: O/U 216.5Under won
- Clippers vs. Warriors: O/U 217.5Under won
- Clippers vs. Warriors: O/U 219.5Under won
- John Collins: Points O/U 13.5No won
- John Collins: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Kawhi Leonard: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Kawhi Leonard: Points O/U 26.5No won
- Kawhi Leonard: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Kris Dunn: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Spread: Clippers (-2.5)Clippers won
- Spread: Warriors (-1.5)Clippers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.